Victoria: Rain/Storm event: 29th Nov - 5th Dec (Analysis)

[Twister]

WHOA if that came off hello wettest year on Record

We are experiencing History here, a once in a generation pattern and its getting bigger and wetter also I leave the country Dec 8th so expect more massive rain and storms in coming weeks.
I dont know how we will cope when things go back to 5-15mm rain bands and systems lacking moisture or even a normal pattern, atm every system or storm or even a shower is dropping our monthly average INSANE.

The low trough atm what we had today will happen again state wide but with focus shifting further south in coming days and most of it will be gone by late weekend before new stuff moves in from the west

Still not sure about low next week looks like will form to far south good news for many

Had another 18mm from showers and thunderstorms today had less than 40 mins of rain and mostly sunny avro but still 18mm its unreal how humid and wet this pattern is

[Karl Lijnders]

Next week is likely to occur IMO. Only because it is going to take a large scale system to push this whole sequence NE with a flush of cooler drier air. 50-100mm rain event is very probable. Something we will have to keep an eye on.

Expecting a pretty sultry day today with scattered showers and storms, and indeed for the next 4-5 days looks very good, regardless of the tripe norweigen is suggesting.

US/NOGAPS/CMC/ACCESS have got precipitation over much of the state during the afternoon and evenings which indicates shower and storm activity to me.

By next week, that trough the sets up from SA is going to be drawing in large amounts of moisture. A very solid thundery rainband is likely with falls of 50mm over many areas.

[Anthony Violi]

The only doubt about next week is how the system evolves, and on what day/s.

Huge totals yet again, and if EC is correct, expect another big system late next week as follow up as it's secondary system is much colder than ACCESS..

[Supercellimpact]

WOW at next Wednesday 3200 cape -9 li's, I hope that holds because it's right over the NCY. Also Tuesday is Also huge.

[Karl Lijnders]

Expect those figures to jump around SCI.

Signs of the trough stalling through the region next week with rainfall according to ACCESS of 100-200mm across the state, after all this humidity and thundery rainfall.

[Supercellimpact]

Well there is a lot of moisture around, yesterday it didn't rain until at night but during the day the humdity was 75% , something got to give , yep 100mm to 200mm seams probably now.

[stratospear]

GFS has started to settle down over the last couple of runs to 100mm or so here over the next week, most of it falling after Monday. BOM largely concurs but places higher totals in Southern Vic instead.

I hope there are a few good weeks of drying weather after next week to enable what's left of the grain crops to be harvested...

[Harley34]

BOM's latest 7-day forecast for Melbourne remains similar..

Heating up on the Weekend, with TS's until Sunday, then another thundery change early next week.

[I_Love_Storms]

I am actually hoping this storm outbreak is followed up by a massive cold outbreak, the initial collision, as mentioned by Karl earlier I think, would be apocalyptic...

[Karl Lijnders]

Next week to me screams major flood crisis over inland VIC. This is not to be alarmist but it has the hallmarks of something rather unprecedented. Will be keeping a very close eye on it with a risk of another major cold outbreak to follow into next weekend which might deepen into something more significant bringing further heavy rainfall and much drier air perhaps.

All hypothetical!

In the short term, still anticipating around 25-50mm over spots tomorrow and 10-25mm over spots across the weekend, before next turns up the storm intensity again with high precipitation beasts!

We are lucky with a pool of cold air that there has been fairly clear skies ahead of thunderstorms.

[Twister]

Yeah next week an interesting one really have to wait till about Sunday to have a real idea of whats going to happen, with low sitting in bight could send waves of rain and storms across the state much of next week

Also looks like Low pressure will cover the Country from the bight right up to the top end, so a very very interesting pattern next week it will be quite wet but i need at least another 2 days on model runs and watch the Low S of WA atm to see what occurs to know for sure.
That low S of WA will be our low in play next week shows just how slow moving the pattern is atm

I fly out to USA on Wednesday morning so expect a huge mid and late week with me no being around

[Karl Lijnders]

Just to qualify that I am certain of falls of 100-150mm over many parts of C and E VIC this week coming. Will refine as we get closer but from where I sit it is time to get ready for it.

[stratospear]

GFS is still rock steady and not downgrading. Bottom line: Big problems likely for much of Vic next week, especially any town near a river.

[Meso]

Tomorrow still looks great. Should see something similar to today with widespread storms.

Next Tues/Wed looks huge! Lovin this weather, but good to see we might get a bit of a break to recover sometime over the wknd.

[apocalypse]

ACCESS-G is forecasting 297mm for the week, including 275mm in 4 days!!
Obviously falls won't be as huge, but it still gives some certainty for some very large totals somewhere.

[stratospear]

GFS has softened a bit for central areas, but EC ramps it up and suggests 74mm here on Tuesday and Wednesday. At least this weekend won't be a washout.

[Karl Lijnders]

I think the models are having great difficulty with next week but one thing is for sure is that there will be a major rain event with two bursts. Whether we get a third burst which ACCESS is hinting at and CMC is to be seen.

Still thinking widespread showers and storms Monday becoming extensive Tuesday then tending to widespread rainfall. 50mm looks a sure bet but up to 100-200mm is a outside chance if the trough stalls.

I have a feeling this weather is going to take a long while to clear.

[Jake Smethurst]

The weak surface trough will remain over western Victoria during the weekend, before being replaced by a stronger trough advancing towards Victoria from South Australia on Monday. This trough is expected to move over western Victoria late Tuesday or Wednesday, gradually moving through the state. Everything seems to clear by the following week with a few fine days ahead of the next thundery outbreak.

For tomorrow, scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly during the afternoon and evening. Activity will be concentrated in similar areas as today. But generally, most areas with a chance. Storm activity could be a little weaker, but still a significant chance for severe thunderstorms once again.

On Sunday, isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected, mainly over the western districts late in the day.

This will become scattered across Victoria on Monday, mainly afternoon and evening, and then widespread on Tuesday before tending to heavy rain areas in the west later Tuesday.

[James]

whats keeping the storms going in the central district tonight after dark?

[Supercellimpact]

The amount of instabilty is still great for storms to maintain.