VIC: Cold outbreak with showers/hail 15-17 October'10

[Ken]

Self explanatory:

[Karl Lijnders]

The chart above would have snow likely over the Dandenongs and further east under the forecast display. Also this is not a very useful tool as it is only updated twice daily. Very good guide but would be wary of treating it like gospel.

Snow down to 500m is being forecast by the BoM but I have seen that and lower snowfalls occur.

[Petros]

................rain pouring across NW NSW and that is all feeding S SE up to 15mm up there should see an easy 50mm there tonight

Yeah, we will be raving about the wind, coldness etc in Vic but the real story (albiet with the current - and dynamically uncertain given past 3 days of model runs) lies up across NW NSW as Dean stated. And this will all eke out past Mildura over the next 6 weeks, possibly "fixing" the Murray River system imo.

Looking closely for hints of that "tilt" in the forming system over SA Twister, but cant make out anything happening different to current model progs atm (and I'm barraking for the system to develop differently due to my own greed of course!).

[droughtbreaker]

Snow down to 500m is nothing special generally, although at this time of year I'd say it is quite significant. IMHO there will be a dusting down to 400m (Gisborne) and flurries likely down to around 300m. These systems are very sharp at this time of year and pack a lot of punch in a relatively short time frame.

[Didjman]

I have all caneras charging. Waiting with anticipation:D
Peter

[Karl Lijnders]

Good stuff Peter!!

I think all eyes and ears will be from our friends over the western districts for reports of thunderstorms within the rain. Tracker suggesting there is a fairly good amount.

Rain thickening over the NW.

Alright. See you all in about 6hrs.

[Harley34]

Ye, i'm heading off too. I'll be up along with Karl and the rest.

Radar looking sweeter by the hour. Expecting to be very busy by 3-4 AM. Very calm outside, however all that will change in a matter of hours..

[Dc449]

Think i will set the alarm at 2:30 n then go on from there. Didnt realise how big this system is. Looking forward to hopefully some storms if not heavy rain. See you all in very early in the morning

[Rhys_34]

Karl off hand do you remember in the lead up to the February 2005 event was the Bom or anyone for that matter forecasting over 100mm in 24 hours for that system or did it surprise everyone including yourself?

[Skywalker]

Will be awake as well, Harry will certainly make sure of that.
Looking forward to this event, have the week off work so will be able to enjoy it.

[Rhino]

Take a look here Rhys.

http://www.bom.gov.au/announcements/sev ... ndex.shtml

Rhino.

[Twister]

Light rain has been falling last 10 min or so, mixed with drizzle should only increasing in coming 6 hours

Yeah Petros looking at the sat pic now looks like there was a bit of a jump and its starting to stand up more, that made it look like it was tilting and maybe me wishing lol
Its just the front really starting to stand up now and move E NE still cloud band tending to move more S SE than E SE

Mildura radar really picking up now looks great for a long wet night
Hoping for 20mm tonight would be just the best and set us up for November and keep things green and finish off the wheat.

Radar looks great in SA and starting to fill in, in NW Vic and SW NSW looking great this will all feed SE into Vic over night
'
Yeah I think the darling will have another Big flood this summer when the wet season arcs up and few tropical lows just sit in S QLD
Looking forward to the 100mm falls in the Murray catchment next 48 hours will give it another flush hopefully.

Rain starting to increase and get heavier happy times

Off to bed work in 6 hours

[Twister]

Rain getting quite steady to almost heavy now and really setting in, i REALLY dont want to go to bed wish this was 10am not 10pm oh well cant have it all lol

Looking great for 20mm here if not more

Rain coming into view for NE Vic already should start rain ing in hour or so, so a WET 24 hours coming up for them with still all the SA rain and Front to come through

Looks like models were right rain coming down from NSW first, then band of rain with front in the AM

Sure this is a sign and hopefully many more systems like this to come, what a spring and still the big months of NOV and DEC to come loving it

Everyone should see big falls once again happy times

[adon]

Hope the radar is just doing it's usual trick cos it looks to be weakening as it is moving from SA down this way. We are only getting a few spits here.

[wolfcat]

ok... do I get up before dawn or not... that is the question....

anyone want to tell me for Bentleigh what time to set the alarm to head down to the beach or not....

[GregSorenson2]

I remember that 2005 event Karl, although i watched with envy back in SA at the time.

If i was living in Vic right now, i would be driving as far west as i could, then follow the active line back all night..... cause i'm a sucker for long hauls and full flash cards:)

Will be interesting to see how much Jane and Clyve get in Trentham tomorrow, we should our turn here Canberra on the local hills.

[stevco123]

Temps holding in the latest models so looking good. I don't think this system is as cold as the August 2008 system, but it's close and the coldest air comes through overnight. BTW for those thinking of snow - the 850T warm up quickly on Saturday from around -5C at 4am to -3C at 10am. About -4C is the typical cut-off for snow in the Dandenongs so the event should change over to rain showers/sleet pretty quickly if the models are to be believed.

BTW October snow is not that unusual in the Dandenongs - it happened in the last week of Oct in 2007 and also a couple of times in 2003. We've had snow at our place twice in December in the last 10 years - in 2002 and in 2006 (though not once in November). The Antarctic sea ice is near it's maximum extent this time of year so we have extremely cold air to our south. All you need is a big system to throw it north.

850T over Tassie are remarkably cold -7C on Saturday morning - I can't recall seeing a number that low before, but must admit I don't look that closely.

I recall in November (2005,06,07 or 08- cant remember), I was driving from my house to Emerald. I was going through the Cradinia dam area, and it was snowing a little. there were white patches on the side of the road stuck to the grass. As I got closer and inot Emerald, there was snow-covered cars as well.
So there has definitely been snow around the Dandenongs in November (if you classify the Emerald/Cardinia area as that). What made it intersting was that it was November and the place is lower than Mt Dandenong. It was settling at just below 200m asl. I have a pic somewhere.

[stevco123]

yeh floyd. everyones gone til 3am lol. the best bet for snow on mt d is friday night/sat morning early

[Lily]

Good morning night owls A bit coming in on the 64km radar now from Ballan through to Laverton area. Mildura currently on 2.4mm and Swan Hill 3.6mm.

I'm staying up - someone has to get all these blinkin' spiders that are coming out all over the house Quite warm, 16.6C.

[schitzengiggles]

what time are we expecting anything of interest in eastern suburbs?

(so i can get up and look then! - not fall asleep and miss anything!)

will there be much thunder etc for here? - shall i get excited?

6am-9am, then 3pm onwards. expect frightfully cold, windy weather.

don't get excited.