The Australian Weather Forum

Posted: **Wed Jan 23, 2019 5:25 pm**

Friday does not look like i will be shopping just to hot even for that. CFA just posted total fire bans whole state for Friday with mallee and northern country extreme fire danger

Posted: **Wed Jan 23, 2019 5:35 pm**

Strato not gonna be happy... Bendigo 41, 45..

Having another crack at the Jan record, which it only broke this month

Posted: **Wed Jan 23, 2019 5:56 pm**

49.1C today at Red Rock Point at the top of the bight in WA. Eyre is a manual station (sometimes hotter) which will report at 3pm. It will come in close to 50C

The WA January record is 49.8C so getting rather too close for comfort.

Not seeing any change for the next two days. The area which is mostly likely to see records is eastern parts of the Wimmera/Mallee through North Central. That includes spots like Bendigo, Wangaratta etc. Going to be a horrid day

Can't wait for autumn...

Posted: **Wed Jan 23, 2019 5:57 pm**

Rhys_34 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 23, 2019 4:57 pm A few thoughts on tomorrow for SA and Friday for Victoria, this is a very hot airmass that the models seem to be struggling to pick up, for instance Ceduna today reached 48.4C with 850hpa temps barely touching 30C, tomorrow the 850hpa temp over Adelaide is firmly in the 30C range so can see it reaching 48C for widespread areas of Adelaide if the sea breeze and cloud isn’t a factor, perhaps even close to 49C in inland surburbs so will well and truly beat the hottest temp ever recorded for a capital city (or nearby surrounds) of Australia of 47.9C in Avalon on Black Saturday. For Friday for Melbourne the latest 850hpa temps look to be nearly 29C for a time so judging by today’s temps in SA we could easily hit 46-47C in places like Avalon and Laverton (depending on the timing of the change) and 45C for the city. I hope I’m wrong with all that btw, I don’t wish those temps on anyone!!

Thanks Rhy's for the thoughts, I really hope none of those extreme's eventuate. I did have a question and I'm not sure if you can add any insight.
Why does the South-West Suburbs of Melbourne (Laverton/Avalon) generally record the highest spike in temperatures during really hot conditions in Melbourne? Is their a reasoning behind the phenomenon... I actually live out this way my self in Tarneit & moving soon to neighbouring Truganina.

Posted: **Wed Jan 23, 2019 6:01 pm**

Port Augusta forecast 49 tomorrow

Posted: **Wed Jan 23, 2019 6:10 pm**

Tassiedave wrote: ↑Wed Jan 23, 2019 6:01 pm Port Augusta forecast 49 tomorrow

On our Central Oz trip in 2016, we fed the seagulls there (in June). Just txted my wife that tomorrow we could swim with and feed the seagulls!

Posted: **Wed Jan 23, 2019 6:13 pm**

Near the bottom of the temperature stairway today for once. Maxed at a bone chilling 28c but only 20km north was mid 30's.

Ceduna is certainly an interesting one today to understand how much energy this heat trap is generating near the surface. Models underestimated by 3 to 6c , even on the latest run

Knowing that the actual was 48.4c. Here were the projected 2m surface max temp by model on the latest 23/01 00z today for Ceduna

EC 45c
Access C 45c
Icon 44c
Access R 44c
GFS 42c

it's only happened 3 times in BoM's recorded history but I think 50c in S.A tomorrow is a real chance.

Posted: **Wed Jan 23, 2019 6:14 pm**

WeatherViewer wrote: ↑Wed Jan 23, 2019 5:57 pm
Rhys_34 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 23, 2019 4:57 pm A few thoughts on tomorrow for SA and Friday for Victoria, this is a very hot airmass that the models seem to be struggling to pick up, for instance Ceduna today reached 48.4C with 850hpa temps barely touching 30C, tomorrow the 850hpa temp over Adelaide is firmly in the 30C range so can see it reaching 48C for widespread areas of Adelaide if the sea breeze and cloud isn’t a factor, perhaps even close to 49C in inland surburbs so will well and truly beat the hottest temp ever recorded for a capital city (or nearby surrounds) of Australia of 47.9C in Avalon on Black Saturday. For Friday for Melbourne the latest 850hpa temps look to be nearly 29C for a time so judging by today’s temps in SA we could easily hit 46-47C in places like Avalon and Laverton (depending on the timing of the change) and 45C for the city. I hope I’m wrong with all that btw, I don’t wish those temps on anyone!!

Thanks Rhy's for the thoughts, I really hope none of those extreme's eventuate. I did have a question and I'm not sure if you can add any insight.
Why does the South-West Suburbs of Melbourne (Laverton/Avalon) generally record the highest spike in temperatures during really hot conditions in Melbourne? Is their a reasoning behind the phenomenon... I actually live out this way my self in Tarneit & moving soon to neighbouring Truganina.

It's really flat and the wind hits you from overland, it hasn't passed over the bay which has a moderating effect. Otways probably lessen your sea breeze too

Posted: **Wed Jan 23, 2019 6:29 pm**

TASMANIA is in serious trouble, very very bad.
The smoke has reached the Gippy coast on the back of a southerly. I can smell it and at 1km there is a distinct smoke haze.
Given the predicted conditions in SA and VIC, I dont know where the help can come from.
There may have to be a swap from QLD to NSW to VIc to Tas.
It is really that bad folks.

Posted: **Wed Jan 23, 2019 6:40 pm**

WeatherViewer wrote: ↑Wed Jan 23, 2019 5:57 pm
Rhys_34 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 23, 2019 4:57 pm A few thoughts on tomorrow for SA and Friday for Victoria, this is a very hot airmass that the models seem to be struggling to pick up, for instance Ceduna today reached 48.4C with 850hpa temps barely touching 30C, tomorrow the 850hpa temp over Adelaide is firmly in the 30C range so can see it reaching 48C for widespread areas of Adelaide if the sea breeze and cloud isn’t a factor, perhaps even close to 49C in inland surburbs so will well and truly beat the hottest temp ever recorded for a capital city (or nearby surrounds) of Australia of 47.9C in Avalon on Black Saturday. For Friday for Melbourne the latest 850hpa temps look to be nearly 29C for a time so judging by today’s temps in SA we could easily hit 46-47C in places like Avalon and Laverton (depending on the timing of the change) and 45C for the city. I hope I’m wrong with all that btw, I don’t wish those temps on anyone!!

Thanks Rhy's for the thoughts, I really hope none of those extreme's eventuate. I did have a question and I'm not sure if you can add any insight.
Why does the South-West Suburbs of Melbourne (Laverton/Avalon) generally record the highest spike in temperatures during really hot conditions in Melbourne? Is their a reasoning behind the phenomenon... I actually live out this way my self in Tarneit & moving soon to neighbouring Truganina.

It is a barren windswept wasteland, devoid of vegetation. They were barren paddocks for a reason. Now those paddocks are bitumen, houses and more bitumen.
Only a few inches under the surface is rock, that stores heat for days.
It cops the end of a very long wind stretch, so cops the result of hundreds of ks of hot winds.
IMHO>

Posted: **Wed Jan 23, 2019 7:11 pm**

The plains west of Melbourne tend to get northwest flow which mixes down very hot air in the lee of the ranges. Further east the winds tend to be lighter and often more northerly to northeasterly. The western plains go adiabatic to super adiabatic early, while the eastern burbs lag. You can see this in the models which show a clear peak in maxima for Friday in the Laverton to Avalon area. The local roads etc have minimal to no impact as temperature is taken over a natural grass surface usually some distance away.

Melbourne is lucky as the very hottest air is ahead of the surface trough and goes through in the morning (with 850Ts in the 27-28C range). The uppers get hotter during the arvo rising back to 26-27C which translates into 42-45C depending on cloud and humidity etc. The front looks like it will cut under the hot air from 2-3pm in central areas. This probably means we won’t get the full potential.

The day reminds me a lot of Friday three weeks back where a few tweaks could have seen 45C, but thankfully didn’t happen for most of us. Looking at the models the front looks a tiny bit earlier which is better on the 0Z runs.

Btw I’m not so sure EC greatly underdid things back in WA and SA. It had pretty widespread 46-47C in pockets near the coast in this region, peaking at 48C. You’d tend to expect stations to wiggle a degree up or down from the guidance simply due to random factors such as local wind gusts, cloud, etc.

Posted: **Wed Jan 23, 2019 7:51 pm**

Adelaide still looking at huge temps.

Does Melbourne have the all time record high for a capital city? Would've thought Perth or Adelaide would've had that. Really puts Black Saturday into perspective..

sad animal news: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-01-23/ ... a/10739178

This summer is taking a huge toll. Fingers crossed the monsoon gets cranking

Posted: **Wed Jan 23, 2019 8:06 pm**

41 tomorrow and 45 Friday sick

Posted: **Wed Jan 23, 2019 8:22 pm**

Sean wrote: ↑Wed Jan 23, 2019 7:51 pm Adelaide still looking at huge temps.

Does Melbourne have the all time record high for a capital city? Would've thought Perth or Adelaide would've had that. Really puts Black Saturday into perspective..

sad animal news: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-01-23/ ... a/10739178

This summer is taking a huge toll. Fingers crossed the monsoon gets cranking

Perth highest temp is 46.2c in feb 1991, I remember it well!!

Posted: **Wed Jan 23, 2019 8:36 pm**

Adam38 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 23, 2019 8:22 pm
Sean wrote: ↑Wed Jan 23, 2019 7:51 pm sad animal news: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-01-23/ ... a/10739178
If camels are dying - wow. Also related to that link, we hose our dogs and chooks in the heat. We keep the hose in the shade when not in use

Posted: **Wed Jan 23, 2019 9:55 pm**

mick wrote: ↑Wed Jan 23, 2019 6:40 pm It is a barren windswept wasteland, devoid of vegetation. They were barren paddocks for a reason. Now those paddocks are bitumen, houses and more bitumen.
Only a few inches under the surface is rock, that stores heat for days.
It cops the end of a very long wind stretch, so cops the result of hundreds of ks of hot winds.
IMHO>

Well said Mick, 100% correct.

Basically it is a sh***hole (apologies for the language), but it's the harsh reality of the area. It's a environmental & meteorological disaster zone. If it wasn't for my other half I certainly wouldn't be living here. Anyway enough of my ranting, just had to seize that moment.

Another nervous 48 hours coming up both in terms of health (my elderly parents) and fire danger. Hopefully we all get through it relatively unscathed.

Stay safe all.

Posted: **Wed Jan 23, 2019 10:01 pm**

Got 65k from the east atm power lines howling

Posted: **Wed Jan 23, 2019 11:55 pm**

Next few days look amazing and tomorrow will be an INSANE day in SA, crazy heat and many records should fall 47c in the burbs for sure.

Im excited for the beach day tomorrow then out and about in it on Friday gonna be a real baker, but just for 4 to 6 hours in the city if that.

Spare a thought for those inland they have had 4 to 6 weeks of mid 40s that is not normal for anyone crazy hot.

Record Jan for max min and mean for most sates and Aus i think.
AMAZING MONTH and Summer

Crazy heat and crazy DPs last few weeks weather has been great in Melb almost chilly tonight lol

48 hours it will be all over and back to the 20s and teens in S vic

WHopper burst of heat then whats next ?

Posted: **Thu Jan 24, 2019 5:22 am**

Back to near 40c again for here today. All moisture in the ground basically gone now.

First initial look at a mesoscale level on Access C for the 12z run. One thing I noticed is it projecting through northern Vic into central areas a mean wind speed of 40 to 60 knots @900 hPa (1000m ASL) from 8am to 11am tomorrow. With downward mixing, there will be significant wind gusts at the surface if it verifies. Current fire danger ratings would be getting looked at closely based on that run. Will be interesting to see the 18Z run

Posted: **Thu Jan 24, 2019 6:09 am**

JasmineStorm wrote: ↑Thu Jan 24, 2019 5:22 am Back to near 40c again for here today. All moisture in the ground basically gone now.

First initial look at a mesoscale level on Access C for the 12z run. One thing I noticed is it projecting through northern Vic into central areas a mean wind speed of 40 to 60 knots @900 hPa (1000m ASL) from 8am to 11am tomorrow. With downward mixing, there will be significant wind gusts at the surface if it verifies. Current fire danger ratings would be getting looked at closely based on that run. Will be interesting to see the 18Z run

Agree with JasmineStorm be very interesting to see what the 18z & 00z ACCESS-C run will look like and say and may explain a slight hesitation to this morning Fire Danger Ratings in particular for Friday. At this stage they remain the same. But looking a the TEMP/WIND/HGT @900hPa (~650-700m ASL) on the ACCESS-C Model which is showing 32c, mean wind speed of 40 to 60 knots and downward mixing, as quoted will cause some significant wind gusts on the surface. Would not be surprised if not central parts of state and maybe the Wimmera do not go and join Northern Country and Mallee in be coming "Extreme" Fire Danger at minimum. Concerning if this was to increase in the 18z or 00z run. SA today then VIC tomorrow

BoM defiantly got there eyes on the ACCESS-C and EC HiRES and no surprise in their forecasts

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