Hot New Years Eve then some rain possible?

[Hawker]

Hughie has found us today, doing a much better job.
20mm up to 2.45 with moderate to heavy rain.
Some thunder but not a lot.
Chris

[Gordon]

Half your luck Hawker!

Having Macedonian's experience from yesterday, with the rain bucketing down just a few km to our north but refusing to move south (so far)

[hillybilly]

That areas of storms in Melbourne's northeast suburbs has hardly budged, and is developing south and east into the wind -only 27km to FC! Looks a bit organised.

Falls in the 10-20mm range showing up now.

[Skywalker]

Cell developing just to the west of here going by the radar. Weighing up whether I should take my son for a drive and do a chase. It's about the only way I'll see some action.

[Geoff]

Right, I'm writing this system off for us in the Dandenongs now, the satellite loop shows the whole system starting to move off east without having given us a single drop. Things are about to turn tinder dry up here now and with no more rain in the outlook things are not looking good!
(Of course I could be trying on a bit of reverse psychology).

[hillybilly]

Right, I'm writing this system off for us in the Dandenongs now...

Today's shown that one cell for 30 minutes can turn things around, but we are completely out of luck. Trapped between the upslide to the east, and the upper trough/instability to our northwest.

Still a chance tonight and tomorrow (Wednesday less so), but odds stacking against us. Still a bit of moisture up our way from Box Day, but not for much longer.

Great to see more falls north of the divide today and out-east.

Not looking forward to the return of heat on the weekend - latest GFS looks close to 40C on Sunday and a bit of wind

[Gordon]

Yes our biggest disappointment for quite a while.

All models were consistently giving us 25 mm plus almost every run during the week leading up to yesterday. Even this morning Water & Land had us down for 5-10 mm just for today.

[Didjman]

We just caught the southern end here - around 7pm. 20mm with some melted hail in it(almost like sleet).
Peter

[hillybilly]

We just caught the southern end here - around 7pm.

That's great Been so dry everywhere north and west of the city, so good to see this event finally delivering. Looks like thea area around Trentham though to near Bendigo, lower northeast and northeastern burbs have done locally well.

Today is realy our last chance. GFS holds showers for tomorrow in cental areas with ACCESS-R a bit, but thinking chance of anything substantial decline a lot after today.

GFS and EC both keen on 5-15mm throuh central areas. The upper flow has gone northeasterly which us much better for central Vic south of the divide. Not convinced, but quietly hopeful. The areas of showers/storms to our north and northeast is edging in.

After this event looks like another long warm/hot spell

[Blackie]

Good to hear of decent falls around the state now. Just as we thought we'd missed out on this system delivering, we've had 25mm since midnight and still raining with frequent showers this morning. Dust has been settled! Total now of 55mm since boxing day.

BTW I captured this mix of cloud types after storms here on Monday. Mammatus being the stand out. It was one of the best sunsets I can recall.

[Tassiedave]

Getting very dry here in Tassie. We have had 0 mm of rain since Boxing Day. Since October 1st we are sitting on 65mm in Launceston which is way below average. One telling stat is that the last time we had a 24 hour total in excess of 20mm was January 14th 2015 when 44mm fell.

[Macedonian]

I'm in Castlemaine today and it's odd to see more evidence of rainfall here in January than at Mt Macedon.
There must've been a bit of fun here yesterday arvo.

[Dane]

Looking thru my Rainfall records which go back to 2002 at my site in Cranbourne.
There have only been two years where we did not receive any rain in the first week in January.
Those were in 2008 when the first recorded rainfall was not till the 19th and I finished with just 11mm's for the month and 578mm's for the Year (ave 771mm's)
The other year was 2013 when the first rain for the month was not till the 9th and I went on to have my driest January with just 3mm's. The good news that year was that we recovered well from that poor start and finished the year on a healthy 936mm's.
Thinking that if we don't get any rain in the next 48 hours the next chance may not be for several days making it the 2nd worst start to a year I have had.

[Dane]

Some activity to the North of Melbourne near Wallan - throwing out a few sparks and drifting slowly south.

[hillybilly]

Just got a quick 1mm from one of those tiny spots on the radar. The rainfall rates are much higher than the radar is suggesting. Not sure why.

Few spots in the northeastern burbs already past 5mm. All slow moving so will be hit and miss.

[stevco123]

Looking thru my Rainfall records which go back to 2002 at my site in Cranbourne.
There have only been two years where we did not receive any rain in the first week in January.
Those were in 2008 when the first recorded rainfall was not till the 19th and I finished with just 11mm's for the month and 578mm's for the Year (ave 771mm's)
The other year was 2013 when the first rain for the month was not till the 9th and I went on to have my driest January with just 3mm's. The good news that year was that we recovered well from that poor start and finished the year on a healthy 936mm's.
Thinking that if we don't get any rain in the next 48 hours the next chance may not be for several days making it the 2nd worst start to a year I have had.

Looks like I've been in the sweet spot then with a total of 0.2mm yesterday morning. Haha

[Rivergirl]

Stunning photo Blackie. Love those mammatus clouds

[Dane]

Now a cell has gone up near Scoresby I wonder can it make it to Cranbourne? About a 50-50 chance I think

[Geoff]

I'm pleased to be able to report that the wipers on the car still work!
Just a few blobs really, not enough to register, could be something coming down from Wallan way.

[SC.]

I'm under that small cell next to Scoresby, cleaning the gutters always brings rain for me.