I was just making comparisons with January 1959 which saw a somewhat comparable event with very similar temps to those forecast currently. I noticed that there were some big storms on the central and eastern ranges during that event, some which delivered more than 25mm of rain on days above 40C maximum.
In terms of event for Victoria, the "standout" heatwaves are 1939, 1959 and 2009. This one may well come in fourth.. Guess one always hope that things turn out cooler, but with 850Ts in the mid 20s for 4 days, hard to see this one not being "up there".
GFS, ACCESS and EC still showing showers Wednesday/Thursday/Friday so fingers crossed for a bit of temporary relief. I recall a few times when we've had rain on very hot days, including one with a mid arvo hail storm on a 42C day so it can happen.
Calm here ATM and 26C degrees. House is 22C... Goes to show the value of insulation ( have a 8 star house).
8 star insulation seems a very sensible investment right now hillybilly! Would it be possible to post Melb. temp sequence for those heatwaves, or a link to the same? Would be handy to see the current heatwave in the historical context.
Hard to believe we're in with a chance for a shower tomorrow but it seems likely. What I wouldn't give for a hailstorm! The green grass in my paddocks is somehow hanging on so a little drink might just see it through the week. 34 C with a light/moderate northerly here.
Bloody fires, yesterday we had the Trawalla fire just south of our construction site and now got one 9km north of home and I am over here. Messages have been sent out to a few friends so fingers crossed this one is controlled and quick. Temps in Geelong already pushing 43
39 outside here and gusting to 60k. CFA Bloke and Livinia said there wouldnt be any wind today. I knew there would be, everyone did, very strange forecast.
Plenty of smoke visible across the bay toward Geelong.
Not sure how they didn't know about the wind. Models have been indicating for four-five days that the upper profile would be relatively gusty and it only had to mix down, which under today's circumstances wasn't hard. 40 degrees here at the moment.
Jake - Senior AWF Forecaster
Feel free to send me a private message if you have any questions.
44.2 in Adelaide. The airmass is hotter than what BOM has predicted so far for Adelaide. Wonder what will happen here, maybe the models have even struggled with it a bit?
Sitting on 39.6 here- one of the last places in the Metro area to stay below 40 along with Coldstream (excluding the ranges). I'm sure that will change in the next few minutes.
It is 46.6 under the back verandah and courtyard that is a poorly designed concrete heat sink and 42.5 on the proper thermometer in the shade in the back yard at carrum. Not many at the beach, but that will change after tea.
Some small cumulus is building to the NW of us. Temps may peak shortly in the North-West. 45.1 is the highest temp in the state so far at Hopetoun, Charlton and Longerenong, so a very widespread area of extreme heat. Avalon up to 44.5 at 1:49, wow!
by HarleyB » Tue Jan 14, 2014 1:21 pm
Some small cumulus is building to the NW of us.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Yes, in just the last 2 hours the visible satellite image has rapidly gone from completely clear, to fields of cumulus over the whole western half of the state. Looks like many of us from Central westwards will see cloud increasing from now on.
Just hit 37c here on the hill, still 5c short of Black Saturday and nowhere near as windy, so no comparison really, but still bl@@dy hot!
Still working away here in the City, I have just noticed back home in Wyndham Vale/Werribee have broken 45c mark. Holy Moly! http://weather.gkt.net.au/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Very interested in that narrow white line moving just past Ballarat towards the city. It seems to be the edge of the band of cloud but the DP and humidity in Ballarat as well as places further west seem to have dropped rather sharply since it would have gone through, as well as increasing temperatures. Anyway, thermometer showing 40.8 here, still not as hot as that day in December, but hot enough for sure.
