11th June onwards - Cut off low

[Macedonian]

wow, you are lucky Rivergirl, we are up in the mist, it is all grey, drippy,cold and wet havent seen the sun for many days now. 4.8C now

[Geoff]

Yep, can confirm Rivergirl's report, It's been glorious here so far. But, the radar is a carbon copy of this time yesterday, with showers approaching from the S/E again. Looks like we've had the best of the day so far. Currently 9.3c in Olinda.

[Rivergirl]

Macedonian I feel that the Dandenongs were above all the low fog and mist this morning. I love days like that Yes Geoff, it's been very cold too.

[Macedonian]

we were in the thick of it rivergirl, the sun came out this afternoon and a bit of blue sky but still that crazy wind and really chilly.

[Geoff]

Oddly showers coming in from the northeast this morning

Yes, what's going on, is a new low forming over us? Woke up expecting to see showers moving up from the S/E and here they are coming down from N/E.

[flyfisher]

Looks like a SE front with a NE flow in front of it. The Tasman low is spitting out troughs as it oscillates around.

[Wilko]

4mm here overnight
Looks like solid rain coming in from the East
Anticipating another 5mm at the very least

[johnno]

7mm of just heavy persistent drizzle here, constant stream from the S/SE over the nw suburbs this morning. Not sure how the City once again missed out on this one with just 0.6mm there mabye it was a touch to west of the CBD

[johnno]

Little upper low has formed to our NW guys, EC has had it for days hence why the rain came in more from the ENE

[dry]

Rain coming from the east is weird although it happens five or so times a year it just does not feel normal!

[Dane]

This current rain has been a bit of a surprise to me.
Been raining lightly for most of the day here. 1.5mm's up to 9am and another 7mm's since then. MTD now 119mm's.
The rain has kept it cold with a top of just 10.3c here today, currently 10.1c, looks like it may be my coldest day this year.
Looks like Baw Baw is doing ok from this snow wise with heavy wet snow falling for most of the day.

[Proteous]

Now past 160mm here and still having rain periods. Very fortunate that similar falls have not occurred in the mountains to the North otherwise serious flooding would have occurred. Enough already.

[nafets]

In the sweet spot again today like you said yesterday Johnno, 5mm since 9am here :O city less than 1mm

[Skywalker]

Has been absolutely pelting down here for at least the past half hour. This weather is unbelievable!

[Proteous]

Six inches here and still raining. I cant cope.

[stratospear]

The most bizarre thing with the current weather (and it looks like continuing for the next week or so) are the endless South-Easterlies. Very whacked for this time of the year.

AXS forecast model looks the most interesting for later this week with a jet of cold air blasting up from way down South. But it's the outlier since EC and GFS create an inland low with the cold air missing us... I hope AXS is right, but I doubt it.

[I_Love_Storms]

Massive CB in Camberwell. Might bucket down this arvo

[stratospear]

Convective shower of rain in Bayswater atm.

[flyfisher]

So a question..

How come the showers in Gippsland don't make it to the top of the dividing range? In NW flows this occurs but rarely in SE flows. I have seen it happen before but not all the time and definately not this system. It dumps most of it's rain on the coast and the first foothills and does not make it any further.

Is it because they are shallow showers? Or is the SE side of the low the last of the upsliding and it dries out quickly? The top of the range is Falls/Hotham but the mitta valley wraps around the back where Omeo is and the rain stops at that first ridge line, but even before there in this system.

Another ECL next week could see Gippsland very wet. Lucky Glenmaggie is only 24% full.

[Supercellimpact]

I always wonder that too, I think it's because the terrain leading up to hotham and falls gets too steep in a short distance and this affects the showers because they cannot lift over the steep terrain. What's everyone else think ?