Vic - Potential showers/storms - 21st Dec to Boxing Day 2011

[I_Love_Storms]

Welcome to the forum oz! Models still very intriguing. I mainly just follow gfs and ec and much moreinclined to go withgfs in this scenario due to the convective set up. Ec doesn't seem to have a clue what is happening and in this type of events I've seen a few mm progged and a storm comes through and dumps 50! It's going to be very interesting...I think areas of central should see 5-10 today with isolated totals which are much higher.

[Anthony Violi]

Feels like Borneo this morning, 100% humidity, misty and warm.

Beautiful set up, sounding from last night shows much more moist atmosphere through the mids, even at 11pm last night LI was -0.16. Can only imagine plugging in 32/18 later on.

Means that today may go early, but MT Gambier sounding not online from last night so hard to make a definitive call on the air thats coming, will keep an eye on the 11am sounding.

[Supercellimpact]

Temp is 28c and dp 11 so it's not overly humid here, it won't get anywhere near what AV said 32/18 but elsewhere maybe . It's certainly heated up early this morning.

[I_Love_Storms]

25/17 here

[AUS_Twisted]

Chris I really dislike several things in the foreground of your photo haha, I think you know what I mean

Looking forward to see what happens today and tomorrow, things looking good

[johnno]

Pity theres Southerlies ALREADY right through in and about Melbourne which IMO already kills half the chance of storms Today in the Metro area

[mick]

No southerly down here, more east with a bit of fog.

[I_Love_Storms]

Pity theres Southerlies ALREADY right through in and about Melbourne which IMO already kills half the chance of storms Today in the Metro area

Yeah I think it'll play out in line with bom forecast, with storms around northern and eastern suburbs and ranges.

[aussiestormfreak]

Yeah it looks like my area is in or just slightly north/northeast of the 'seabreeze convergence zone', hoping that it's a good sign of things to come this afternoon

25.3C outside atm, now waiting for surface heating to really kick in and get some powerful convection firing up... fingers crossed and cameras ready!

[Supercellimpact]

30.7/10.7 here now so the moisture issnt too good.

[rikjpool]

Here is a 5 min timelapse in 40 seconds of the convection yesterday afternoon. I'd Imagine this afternoon will be similar...

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[droughtbreaker]

My gut feeling is that storms will mainly form along the sea breeze boundary during the late afternoon and evening with more activity than what we saw yesterday afternoon. Elsewhere there will only be the odd cell around. Tomorrow looks a lot better as the trough passes through and storms become more widespread.

[nafets]

29/20 here, humid!

[aussiestormfreak]

Just checked my weather station a few minutes ago... current temperature of 31C, heat index 32C, dew point 19C, relative humidity 47%... good fuel for thunderstorms

[I_Love_Storms]

Things are going to explode on and north of the convergence line later this Arvo. Good luck all, hope u get some crazy rain rates and cgs!

[johnno]

BOM have just ammended the Max for Melbourne Today from 32 to 28c

[droughtbreaker]

Just using the very simplistic method of plugging values into this morning's sounding and the LI and CAPE is very dependent on moisture rather than temperature. This basically means that we need it to be a few degrees of DP moister for things to really get going through inland central areas and afternoon heating won't do it. The highest DPs close to Melbourne (and where the sea breeze is washing out currently) are in the eastern suburbs, so away from the focal point of the sea breeze convergence this part of Melbourne looks the most promising IMO.

Aside from that development should be confined to the central ranges.

[Anthony Violi]

Looks like they will come out of the nw...right along the convergence boundary. Its a crazy 31/19.6 here, will be very heavy rainfall because of the slow movement.

Actually as I'm posting from my vantage point in cold stream where I'm pool cleaning, huge towers shot up out near ballarat maybe even to the south. So there direction will be the key.

[AUS_Twisted]

Not impressed the southerly has picked up here

[Anthony Violi]

Sounding shows direction coming out of the due west, convection overhead coming infrom the NW, and the eruptions out west look they are going to be moving from the due west. So all iun all an interesting arvo, if things get cranking out near South of Ballarat will make for an interesting arvo, however they are moving at snails pace so may not make it into town.

On another note, Mt Gambier sounding shows a very dry patch of air just above the surface, shouldnt be a problem as convection should be just above that level. And also shows sterring a little more WNW with the trough through Bass Strait.