The Australian Weather Forum

Hi Meso, I do apologize if there has been some confusion, I am quite stressed lately because of exams. However, if you take a look at the thunderstorm discussion for tomorrow, http://www.theaustralianweatherforum.co ... mchart.htm, it should hopefully clear things up a bit. I will take a look at the AWF forecast and see if I have written something wrong.

Tomorrow will be very dependent on any clear air. Thunderstorms tomorrow will most likely only initiate in any clear air, in which is most likely going to be in the Wimmera and Southwest, as the rain band clears these regions during the morning allowing for ample opportunity for surface heating etc ... in the afternoon. The other area of interest is the northeast ranges ahead of and with the rain band in the morning. Otherwise, there is a chance for isolated thunderstorms across the remainder of the state for the whole day, with a greater risk if cloud clears, otherwise conditions will be hampered for those other regions. The risk should continue in the afternoon I cannot see why it shouldn't, but as I said, cloud will hamper things. Check the discussion hopefully it provides more details, if it is unclear, let me know mate.

Might get a thunderstorm here overnight or early morning too, quite a bit of activity moving into southeast South Australia near the main band of rain at the moment. Mt. Gambier likely to see one. Interesting!! But not holding my hopes too high.

This is all starting to feel very Deja Vu. Lots of rain North of the Divide and along the Murray River and into the North-East. 06Z GFS looking quite apocalypic for Southern Riverina of NSW

Moon has a misty halo as indicated before so that means moisture and the air has a moist feel tonight as if a tropical air mass is over us, temp is 20 deg ATM so expect a warm night across Vic with minimums around 16-19deg. Nice convecive rainfall approching, so falls will vary where the cells track over etc.

hmm looking interesting over the border!

Yes a VERY active 48 hours ahaed

Lots of Showers rain and few Thunderpops overnight and into the morning
IF any clear air in W or N it will explode, E SA looking Very good tomorrow so watch out far W Vic
Wednesday will be repeat of Sept 28th but more rain

Get excited

I totally agree... looks like this system is starting to really get organised as it approaches Victoria, wouldn't be surprised if a stray shower or thunderstorm suddenly develops overnight around Melbourne

Whatever the outcome, I and my faithful cameras (and my weather station of course lol) are ready...

AussieStormFreak - would love to see some of your images someday

I'm over in Perth for the next few days, gutted I'm missing this event. However, I flew in this morning - took over 4hrs 45mins for a flight that is normally 4hrs - massive headwinds and real choppy as we came in to land.
Has been a grey, miserable day here hitting only 21c, but very humid. As the day progressed, everything got alot more organised and the occasional showers became quite convective. Here's a little taster of what's heading Victoria's way in the next 3 days (taken at Ocean Reef, about 20km north of Perth on my blackberry)

daviescr » Mon Nov 07, 2011 11:32 pm wrote:

daviescr wrote:AussieStormFreak - would love to see some of your images someday

Cheers Daviescr, I'm really keen on sharing my pics with the rest of the world (I have some 60,000 images since December 2002... including roughly 60 lightning frames from the September 28th storms here in Melbourne lol ) but I'm in the process of building my own weather photo website... it'll be worth the wait, trust me!

Cool, I'll look forward to that - I know what it takes to build a personal website... bets of luck!

Looking forward to tomorrow and Wed.. I would love to see some clear air so we get some good structure to see.

anyone else awake? look at the storms coming across from ballarat way....some meaty cores in that!

James » Tue Nov 08, 2011 1:17 am wrote:

James wrote:anyone else awake? look at the storms coming across from ballarat way....some meaty cores in that!

I am awake and i am quite happy to be seeing what i am seeing over the bay.

hmm.... but 3 glasses of red wine mean I am not driving to the beach.... nor does the fact I have to get up for work in 6 hours .... ah well... will leave camera and tripod set up by the front door in case something comes closer.

Got some good Flashes from over the bay, hoping it comes straight to me!!

Looks like something's popping up just south of Laverton, could be a noisy night ahead...

some black cores in there, is that likely hail?

Going SE, will need it to build on the Nth side for it to go right over top of me i would think.

Edit:Spelling

Dc449 » Tue Nov 08, 2011 1:41 am wrote:

Dc449 wrote:Going SE, will need it to build on the Nth side for it too goes right over top of me i would think.

I'm hoping for the same, looks to be building closer to Bendigo which might come in a bit further north, could also build in front of that I guess...

Wow...I haven't seen storms develop late at night in years here. Some nice light show happening to my south and south west. Great view from the top of the hill where I live. Hopefully I get some direct action.

Got some low rumbles and now the dog is starting up. Some rain now starting, big fat drops.