Vic- April 1 - 10 Mild, warm then a major front, possible cut off low

[StratoBendigo]

Probably not much rain here (can't see more than 10mm), but GFS is looking good for Sunday and Monday to be rather wintry with our first taste of 850 HPa temps below zero. It might even struggle to get above 15c on Sunday

[JasmineStorm]

Access has just modelled the low now more in central Bass Strait at 1004 hPa Sunday afternoon. This will change things if it happens. Access rainfall upgraded over a wider area now on the last run especially western and north central Victoria. GFS also has started coming on board with the 18z run, giving East Gippsland a 100mm thrashing.

Tasman has a current flowing into eastern Bass Strait at 22c. Bass Strait is currently 17c to 19c. Port Phillip bay currently 19 to 21c.

Considering the polar uppers, warm sea surface temps, rapid tightening of temperature gradients and reasonable chance for the low to cut off in central Bass strait…. this has the potential to go nuclear IMO

[stevco123]

Conversation with relatives from Perth over skype earlier today:

THEM: Oh we can't wait to visit this weekend. The weather looks lovely for Melbourne at about 26 every day. That's perfect for our week long holiday.

ME: Did you look at the full forecast? It's gonna be 14 on Sunday and snowing on the mountains for probably two days.

THEM: (Face drops)... at least we'll get to see snow hopefully then. Can you take us?

Outcome? WIN / WIN

[snowfall]

23.1 here today after a low overnight of 9.2. Starting to feel more autumnal with the temp dropping steadily in the evening. Currently 15.3.

[Rivergirl]

by stevco123 » Wed Apr 05, 2017 1:28 pm

Conversation with relatives from Perth over skype earlier today:

THEM: Oh we can't wait to visit this weekend. The weather looks lovely for Melbourne at about 26 every day. That's perfect for our week long holiday.

ME: Did you look at the full forecast? It's gonna be 14 on Sunday and snowing on the mountains for probably two days.

THEM: (Face drops)... at least we'll get to see snow hopefully then. Can you take us?

Outcome? WIN / WIN

Love it!

[JasmineStorm]

23.7c again yesterday, down to 5.6c this morning. More of the same today....

All Models are pushing the low more into eastern bass strait again, so east of the bay looks wet and east Gippsland very wet. Back to about 5mm here.

[hillybilly]

Progs speeding the system up a touch now with a pre-frontal trough on Saturday with some showers. Main change then for Sunday.

Generally rainfall totals dropped back a bit - looks like 10-30mm southern, and mostly 10mm or less in the north. Will tend to reinforce the current situation where some areas such as Gippsland and East Central are doing quite well, why northwest Vic and west central continues to struggle.

Some snow in the alps, and thinking we should see some decent coldies on Sunday around the bay.

Another big high to follow for next week

[JasmineStorm]

24.2c at the moment here. Last few years, we seem to be getting a string of April days well over 20. Used to get the odd one or 2 in a row but not 6 days in a row. I can see that monster high next week coming in and I'm trying to deny it exists.

As expected, models are starting to get all excited and getting a little nuclear with the volatile mix on order for Sunday's system. GFS now has a 125mm bullseye on east Gippsland and has the urban fringe of SE Melbourne nice and juicy. Watch for all the upgrades and downgrades for the next 48 hours

http://stormcast.com.au/raincast.html?o ... 20:mel:nul

[Tassiedave]

Maximum temperatures in Tasmania today included 26.4 at Friendly Beaches, 25.5 in Hobart and 22.7 in Launceston. Tomorrow's forecast temperatures are 26 in Hobart and 24 in Launceston. Could be some showers Saturday afternoon and Sunday - still a lot of uncertainty as there will be a LOW spin up to our north east and its exact location will determine rainfall. Temps head back into the twenties late next week.

[hillybilly]

Turning into another summer in autumn setup. 27C in the city, with another two in the forecast. Month currently running nearly 5C above average, which will rise to near 6C by Saturday. Going to need a big cold spell to even the ledger.

Curently out at Lakes Entrance where it's been swimming weather most the week (glad we came here and not Airlie Beach which is where we went Easter last year ). Fancy skies too with huge control burns around Orbost.

Prefrontal trough on Saturday starting to excit the models a bit. LI drop to -2 to -4 with quite a few showers on the models. Could well get a storm

Sunday the main event with a strong front cutting off into a low. Looks to be a bit slower to clear in the latest runs which is good for rainfall.

[snowfall]

24.6 here today after a low of 12.0 last night. It sure is warmer than normal (again). With another big high coming in, I don't see how the month will be anything other than above average for temps. I also remember a temp in the high 20s in Melbourne was something that typically happened once or twice in early April, not a long string of them. At least we have Sunday/Monday to break things up a bit, and hopefully a few mm of rain. It's looking like this one will deliver mostly to the east, but hoping the pre-frontal trough scatters a few heavier showers further around. Will become clearer tomorrow.

[StratoBendigo]

24.6 here today after a low of 12.0 last night. It sure is warmer than normal (again). With another big high coming in, I don't see how the month will be anything other than above average for temps. I also remember a temp in the high 20s in Melbourne was something that typically happened once or twice in early April, not a long string of them. At least we have Sunday/Monday to break things up a bit, and hopefully a few mm of rain. It's looking like this one will deliver mostly to the east, but hoping the pre-frontal trough scatters a few heavier showers further around. Will become clearer tomorrow.

There have been plenty of instances of a warm start to April that finished rather cold. 2004 is a great example (ie. 34c on April 14, and a frost less than week later!). April 1991 is another.

BOM going for a maximum of 16c here on Sunday....

[hillybilly]

Models holding or perhaps bumping totals a bit. Good to see. The low is cutting of a little earlier which means it will be a bit slower to clear. Sunday looks wild, particularly southern and mountain areas.

Meanwhile another warm smokey one today for much of Vic.

[JasmineStorm]

Lots to process this morning - as HB mentions, the low is cutting off earlier on most models. EC and Access almost identical in cyclongenenis commencing directly south of port Phillip bay in Bass strait which means the west and north west of Melbourne come into play. I need to process all of this new information and will report back

P.S I'm now slipping into severe weather mode

[Wilko]

EC reporting 51mm for me on Sunday

[Macedonian]

18.9C for a max yesterday which is the upper end of what i could expect in April.
Still havent had a less than 10C max yet.

[Rivergirl]

Can't wait to hear more JS and hillybilly

[JasmineStorm]

Another warm one here today with a gusty northerly, feels like March.

Plenty of rainfall upgrades but there is the potential for big downgrades just as quick if the low is in a different spot which GFS just modelled. East Gippsland is in for a thrashing on Monday on all models. EC, Access R and CMC have all modelled the low in central Bass Strait for Sunday afternoon. If this happens, it’s going to be a more widespread spearing southerly attack which includes west and NW of Melbourne. EC upgraded me to about 30mm based on the low moving. I also noticed a lot updraft rotation modelled on GFS for Sunday which could get some water spouts going on the bay Sunday evening with a coldie The uppers are brutally cold, there is snow on the Alps for sure.

[Rivergirl]

Flood Watch for Greater Melbourne
IDV35300

Note: This Flood Watch is a heads-up for possible future flooding and is NOT a Flood Warning (see note below)

Flood Watch For Greater Melbourne Catchments (Werribee, Maribyrnong, Yarra, Dandenong And Bunyip)

Issued at 12:02 pm EST on Friday 7 April 2017
A cold front will move into western Victoria later Saturday then cross the remainder of the State on Sunday. A low will develop off the east Gippsland coast on Monday then moving rapidly across the Tasman Sea.

Showers are forecast for Greater Melbourne catchments on Saturday. Rain is forecast for Sunday and into Monday, with the potential for some heavy falls during Sunday.

Stream rises are expected in response to the forecast rain, with the possibilty of minor flooding developing in Greater Melbourne catchments from late Sunday evening.

The Bureau of Meteorology in conjunction with Melbourne Water will continue to monitor the situation and issue catchment specific warnings if and when required.

Note: This Flood Watch means that people living or working along rivers and streams must monitor the latest weather forecasts and warnings and be ready to move to higher ground should flooding develop. Flood Warnings will be issued if Minor Flood Level is expected to be exceeded at key sites along the main rivers for which the Bureau of Meteorology provides a flood warning service. For detailed explanation see http://www.bom.gov.au/vic/flood/brochur ... atch.shtml

SES advises that all community members should:

Never walk, ride or drive through floodwater,
Never allow children to play in floodwater,
Stay away from waterways and stormwater drains during and after heavy rain,
Keep well clear of fallen power lines
Be aware that in fire affected areas, rainfall run-off into waterways may contain debris such as ash, soil, trees and rocks, and heavy rainfall increases the potential for landslides and debris across roads.
Current Emergency Information is available at http://emergency.vic.gov.au

For emergency assistance contact the SES on 132 500.

Current Road and Traffic Information is available at the VicRoads website: http://traffic.vicroads.vic.gov.au/

Weather Forecast:
For the latest weather forecast see http://www.bom.gov.au/vic/forecasts/

Next Issue:
This Flood Watch will be updated by 10:00am Saturday 8th April 2017.

Flood Warnings, Flood Watches, River Height and Rainfall information are available on the Bureau of Meteorology web site at http://www.bom.gov.au/vic/flood/. Flood Warnings and Flood Watches for Victorian Catchments are available on: Telephone Weather Service No. 1300 659217.

[stevco123]

The weather has "THAT" feeling today.

The feeling of mild and windy before a major cold front.

Oh how I miss that. It's been a good 7 or 8 months.