Victoria: Tropical rain event - March 19 to 23 2017

[Gordon]

Up to 11 mm here today thanks to a mix of 'regular' rain and a couple of half-decent storms. A good entrée (I hope!)

[Tassiedave]

25.5 degrees in Launceston today with early fog then a fine sunny day, the highest in Tasmania was 27.2 degrees in Cressy. Not much rain to speak of highest was 1 mm on Mt Wellington.

[stevco123]

Oh you have got to be kidding me. This is bull.

Melbourne is stuffed up bad. The climate is crap. We're in the right latitude for proper summers yet we get rubbish 40 degree days followed by 15 degree days.

And we are in a perfect position to get snow in winter yet there is too much water around meaning we are JUST too warm.

Don't even talk about storms. The storms we know of 20 years ago were just an anomaly. This s the real climate we are getting today.

Why couldn't Melbourne be built somewhere around the lower alps.

[Supercellimpact]

That approaching storm/rainband is coming straight for us. Looks good for some decent rain

[typhoon29]

Solid rain here for the past hour, this band seems to be in unload mode, had a couple of real close CGs and thunder where the whole house shook! Zero wind.

[Horts]

What just happened? I mean look at it, literally dies as it hits the metro. Holy hell this place is boring, absolute garbage, fizzer after fizzer after fizzer!

[wobbie]

What just happened? I mean look at it, literally dies as it hits the metro. Holy hell this place is boring, absolute garbage, fizzer after fizzer after fizzer!

I usually hate whinging but I'm totally feeling all these posts right now

It literally disappeared and vaporised

[Jake Smethurst]

Today's action was always focused across the ranges and northern regions, and as pointed out earlier today, if Melbourne were to see storms today they needed to rely on storms moving south across the ranges without decaying. Unfortunately they decayed ... which I even admit was a bit unexpected. Some parts of Melbourne did see storms though, as did other regions in Victoria, so not completely a dud day. That's the nature of storms. Tomorrow has always been the big day though, but mostly for rainfall - we should wake to it!

Edit: Good to see you getting some Typhoon!

[93ben]

At least I got to see some sheet lightning in Templestowe and hear a couple of rumbles before the rain killed it. I really don't know what happened to Melbourne though. We used to get some great storms, now we're lucky to have any. Climate change just seems like a thing. I reckon they will have to change the seasons around the world in a decade or less. Summer and winter just seem to be starting late and finishing late.

[Adam37]

Hi all newbie here!!
Had a decent drop for once in Bacchus Marsh this morning, 22mm followed by an incredibly humid day.

[Sugarlata]

Jake is right, all the instability was around the ranges, coming down was never going to bode well. Check out the CAPE from 4pm today according to GFS:
http://stormcast.com.au/stormcast.html? ... :null:0#sc
Pretty much identical for the last four model runs. About 5:30pm I was at Doncaster on the roof watching a cell near Sunbury with a beautiful looking wall cloud and strong updraft on the northern edge. Repositioned to Greensborough and within half and hour it was dead. I don't mean a dying and struggling, I mean couldn't even see the updraft, just the anvil laying about. Same thing happened to the cell east of it over Whittlesea area. The severe weather warning was released for it to hit Mill Park by 6:45pm, I was on a hill overlooking Mill Park and by 6:15pm there was nothing but the anvil.

Tomorrow showing instability in the same place, very narrow. Latest run shows it extending a little further south through eastern suburbs, but it'll likely be the same story, dying as it comes off the ranges. Access-R telling mostly the same story but with less cape.

Definitely feeling like a rubbish season. Apart from December 29th, can't really remember anything noteworthy the past few months. (There was also the "thunderstorm asthma storm, which hit the west, but fell apart coming over the east side of town). Quite disappointing.

[stevco123]

And here it comes folks. Massive rainband from the Northeast with a lot starting to develop before the main band. This one looks set to deliver. It has enough oomph i think

[Harley34]

Light rain falling, increasing to rain areas later, a possible storm and it's all calm and gathering for daytime. Hope to see 2 inches...

Some great storms near Kangeroo Island (Adelaide cape area). Black cores and slow moving, the whole region there is very lightning active now...

[hillybilly]

Welcome Adam. Good to have someone out that way.

Out here the frustration continues. Went to be with a storm on our door step and wake up to rain, and inbetween got nothing. Event up to 4.4mm

The humidity is insane. Expecting that we have broken a number of record overnight, but will check. This is like a mid summer tropical incursion, not something that happen mid March

GFS and CMC keen for most of Vic today with waves of showers, storms and rain. Have 25 to 50mm widespread. ACCESS-R is less keen, keep heavy rain mostly in coastal parts. Hope that one's wrong EC looks ok, but waiting on yr.

Expecting a mix of heavy falls and misses today. Whether or get lucky or miss out could come in fair part to luck. Tending to think the area that is best placed for heavy falls is west central, the southwest and north central.

EDIT> EC update basically unchanged. Good fall fairly general for southern Vic with 20-40mm across Melbourne. A bit light in the northern country. There is currently a little circulation (PV maximum) in eastern SA which will move across during the day and be the focus for weather. Would expect heavy falls as it comes through, particularly during the arvo into the evenin.

FC just passed 5mm for the event. Wettest day for nearly 5 weeks

[Macedonian]

And just like Jan 2016 i have largely missed out up here. Mt Macedon has only scraped about 10mm from the event so far One of the lowest totals in the area. This is not the direction that favours my mountain.

Shame about the fizzer storms for all you stormchasers. Its unfortunate that you all arent chasers of hot, dry interminably boring weather with meagre rainfall, you would be spoilt for choice in Victoria.

[typhoon29]

20mm here overnight. What will today bring. All or nothing? I am betting on a little nothing.

[stevco123]

Is it too early to call it a massive failure?

[HarleyB]

A much needed 24mm here, it mustn't have been too heavy as I didn't wake up at all!
Strath Creek, to our south east, has had over 60mm (not 100% sure it's accurate though).

[Skywalker]

Hi all newbie here!!
Had a decent drop for once in Bacchus Marsh this morning, 22mm followed by an incredibly humid day.

A very big welcome Adam. It's fantastic to have another poster from the western side of Melbourne join us in here.

This has turned out to be a decent drop for my area. Pretty sure we are knocking on the door of 20mm all up so far for the event. I forgot to check the gauge this morning so will confirm exact total later.

Yet another fizzer from a storm prospective, very frustrating!

[StratoBendigo]

Event total stands at 8mm.

EC suggesting 12mm this afternoon but I'm concerned it'll all happen to our South...