Victoria - Indian summer rolls on: March 13 to 19 2017

[Geoff]

Winds up to 50km/h forecast for here, and generally 25km/hr-40km/hr over much of the state seems more than enough for a TFB to me given the tinder dryness. Hope the nutters behave themselves tomorrow.

[droughtbreaker]

The wind tomorrow is mainly forecast for the morning and early afternoon and the humidity stays relatively high all day. Severe fire days usually have a big drop in humidity levels as the afternoon heats up. Tomorrow is a north easterly so a different regime to what usually causes severe fire weather.

This month so far has probably been one of the most bizarre months weather wise I can remember. We are heading for record breaking territory here and yet there has only been one day of the month that barely cracked 30C. It has just been day after day under the influence of that Tasman high with almost constant north easterly winds.

If EC is on the right track there is still a chance we'll drop below a record breaking mean maximum for the month but GFS is looking ridiculous. It actually warms things up significantly after the equinox as the tropics come down as far as the Southern Ocean and Tasmania. Ensemble GFS looks more similar to EC though so I'm hoping that eventually GFS will come back to what EC is currently progging (EC ensemble looks similar to the deterministic output). GFS often goes off on crazy tangents more than 4 days out whereas I find EC is usually more consistent. This may be wishful thinking though.

[hillybilly]

Low here of 20C which is hotter than our usual maxima for this time of year. DP is 12C quite subtropical out there.

Just another hot one today, with a bit of cirrus to make it slightly different from the past 24 days

Trough for tomorrow. CMC and ACCESS still holding ok falls, GFS not that keen. Waiting on EC. Looks like the pattern becomes more progressive from Tuesday next week. Could be a decent trough with some rain, but may disappear from the progs in the next six days.

Geoff and others you can run your own FFDI at http://www.cfa4wd.org/information/Forest_FDI.htm . I plugged in the mid arvo obs for here and got a 23 which is high. We are a bit cooler so down the hill would be higher. Of course, best to take the advice of experts.

[StratoBendigo]

EC seems to have backed off a bit for next week. But 18z GFS sees a bit of cooler air in the mix on March 23/24 before the next blocking high at Tasmanian latitudes moves in....

[JasmineStorm]

Just had a wind gust of 63 km/h at Kyneton airport, 23c and humidity in the low 60’s which is assisting the fire danger for the moment. Plenty of cumulous, so will be interesting to see if the air dries out after lunch.

GFS also just picked up on what EC picked up a few days ago, with a significant deepening surface low at the end of next week around Victoria. It’s modelling 140 to 170 mm event for here and around 100 to 120mm for Melbourne. That will probably disappear in the next run but there is definitely something in the mix, as every few runs one of the big models picks it up.

Had a look at that trough for tomorrow to see what it is doing in the bight. Did a forecast vs actual on GFS stormcast. Don't always believe the models

[StratoBendigo]

It wouldn't surprise me if we get soaked next week. Days and weeks on end of tropical in-feed has a habit of eventually causing a bit of an autumn break. It happened in March/April 2014 in a big way.

i.e 75mm of rain on April 9-11 that year.

[Gordon]

Pleasantly surprised how cool today is (so far) given little cloud and strong northerlies - 22C at 11.30 am.

[nafets]

Low-mid 30s here. High cirrus creating a spectacular halo here, must be in for a storm now I like the look of ACCESS for Melbourne tomorrow, hoping the trough comes through a little later though so there's more energy from surface heating. Hoping for 5mm...

[StratoBendigo]

00Z GFS looks quite good for 23rd March. Although I don't think the trough will hang around for long with a monster High in the Bight.

[JasmineStorm]

Got to 31.1c around 3pm. Breezy but humidity stayed around 40%. Unusually warm mid March night coming up.

Things might just go bang tomorrow in central areas with this trough. A nice warm ground, freezing levels dropping to around 3,500m and a lovely atmospheric river of 40mm+ is lining up from the tropics. All the ingredients for a bunch of volcanic multi cell clusters to erupt in the early afternoon

Yes, SB….GFS has lined up 2 model runs in row for the late next week end of summer KaBOOM. CMC is also thinking something will be in the neighbourhood. Need to others to jump on board now to be taken seriously though IMO but there is some hope.

[hillybilly]

Just another hot day in FC. 28C with a DP in the mid teens. Moderate northeasterlies (bascially feels like the trade winds have take up residence across Vic).

Starting to see a few obscure records fall with this persistent heat. Today's the 18th day above 25C in Ballarat (an all months record). Second day in Hobart above 31.5C (and new March record). Tomorrow or Friday may well be sufficiently cool to stop us having runs at records such as days above 30C, but you couldn't rule them out.

Somewhat hopeful about tomorrow. CMC update has 10-15mm for northcentral and east central Vic. GFS is more like 5-15mm. ACCESS around 10-20mm. Waiting to see EC. The upper trough is quite sharp and there is very good moisture with this system. Main concern is really on the timing - would be better if the trough was more like 4pm.

Hoping to get something for the empty water tanks and stop having to water the garden for a day or two or three.

CMC and GFS now really keen for substantial rain next week. Would like to see EC come on board with the 0Z run...

>EDIT EC now also got a good low passing over us slowly. Looks to be a good chance for solid falls.

[hillybilly]

Crazy warm night out there. 26C in the city at midnight and 23C here. We are still to dip below 20C here, but might just get there with it 20.2C ATM. Humid and windy... not your usual hot night in Victoria

Rainband looks ok on radar and is thickening up, but so far mostly virga. Fair split on the model updates with GFS only having a few mms,tending to peak northeast of Melbourne while CMC and ACCESS has much better falls. Two parts to today's system. Weak band of rain, then clear air with storms. LI dive this arvo in the area between the clearing rainband and wind change, with GFS putting these down below -4 in parts of central Vic.

Longer term models still keen on something significant from around Monday next week. Could be worth its own thread or perhaps we just and some showers and storms to our Indian Summer??? GFS, CMC and EC and their ensemble runs are all very similar and being only a few days out confidence must be pretty good. The only different model is ACCESS which brings the low further south and misses parts of Vic as a result (would back that scenario given it sits on its own).

[hillybilly]

Photo from incoming "rainband". Looks like it going to flood.. (if only ).



EC has got 14mm here today, so maybe a decent drink for a dry garden.

[Dane]

That rainband looks pretty thin on radar and is fast moving, don't think we will get that much from it.

[hillybilly]

That rainband looks pretty thin on radar and is fast moving, don't think we will get that much from it.

In Blackburn currently and pouring down. Looks like a quick 3-5mm here.

I expect we'll see development behind the rainband. The westerly change is initially very shallow and winds will probably go back north of west.

Real question is where development takes place - I'm guessing somewhere between Laverton and Coldstream...

EDIT> Pretty consistent 2-5mm across the burbs east of Melbourne. Couple of falls just passed 5mm in a band from near Box Hill to just south of the Dandenongs. 2.5mm at home and still raining, though looks to be easing. Not quite the drought buster yet, but fingers crossed

[JasmineStorm]

2.6mm here, doubled my rainfall for the last 4 weeks A bit more to come but I think the action will be further south from here, although there is a good moisture feed coming in, so anything can happen . Here is my 2 cents worth on the 8.10am sat pic.

[stevco123]

On the contrary to the photo above from hillybilly that was looking west, this one is looking East. Was quite a sight this morning looking in both directions.

[flyfisher]

I have some great photo's of the rainbow on the leading edge of the rain this morning, but I cannot seem to work out how to do it. I tried to sent to hillbilly but it does not like any of the formats when attaching.

[stevco123]

I have some great photo's of the rainbow on the leading edge of the rain this morning, but I cannot seem to work out how to do it. I tried to sent to hillbilly but it does not like any of the formats when attaching.

I find that if you reduce the image quality in "PAINT", it allows you to attach. Most of the time the quality is too high to be able to add this forum.

[stevco123]

Phew! minimum below 20 just before 9am. Safe!