Vic : Jan 16 to 23 Warm to Hot start, dry change, then possible trough / deep low

[mick]

strange day indeed.... still peaking here, 39.3c.

Meanwhile in Shepparton, 3 fallstreak holes appeared in the sky this afternoon....image from the BoM.

Never seen that before in my life and no one else I know has either.

[Macedonian]

Temp has dropped at my place at mt macedon, im surrounded my cool mountain ash forest on the south face of the mountain.
29C here now. Trentham is just under 35C
Its not often that there is such a big difference in summer between Trentham and Mt Macedon.
No wonder people used to have summer residences here in the old days. Natural aircon.

[Tassiedave]

A pleasant 24.7 degrees in Launceston today with 24.1 in Hobart. Highest in Tasmania today was Fingal with 29.1 degrees.

[Gordon]

Spoke too soon - made it to 34C here, now 30C & on the way down (I think!) with a light southerly. Our hottest day so far this summer.

[HarleyB]

just cracked 40 here, our first 40 degree day since February 23, I also have a funny feeling it'll be the only 40 degree day this summer.

[StratoBendigo]

The blowtorch was turned on here today. Made it to 41c and still 39 outside. Hurry up cold front.

EC and GFS have ramped up the forecast rain for Friday morning here. Perhaps 20mm+

[Tassiedave]

Patchy rain falling across Northern Tasmania at the moment. 1.4 mm at Smithton the highest total so far.

[hillybilly]

Off on holidays in northeast Victoria so spent yesterday's stinker at 1300m in Lake Cantani. No need for a wet suit... car thermometer was showing about 30C up there

Max of 32C in FC which is consistent with Melbourne 38C. Thankfully nice and green still and no wind. Drizzle this morning to settle the dust.

Lucky to have missed the worst of this. NSW is having a shocking run. Lots of places breaking or approaching heat records, including Sydney which just p had its hottest night on record the sites very exposed to the harbour so unusual in that it doesn't usually get intense heat.

Cooler today then warmer tomorrow. Progs still split for the big rain event. GFS pushes it north and south and kinda splits around much of Vic. EC is much better overall with good falls for Melbourne. ACCESS is inbetween. Quick follow up system showing for early next week so could be a very productive period (EC scenario) or really frustrating (GFS).

[Macedonian]

A much more bearable 10C morning with a stiff breeze and thick fog and drizzle.

Scary hot weather in central NSW

[Dane]

Cooler weather today and for a few days now which is good, 35 progged for next Monday but its the only hot day as cooler again next Tuesday.
So far temperatures this month have been above normal but at least we are not getting any extreme heat, yesterday 37.8c
in the City was the highest of the summer so far.
Remember that extreme heatwave we had from 14 to 17 January 2014.
Only time the City has had 4 days in a row above 41c was even hotter in the suburbs Essendon Airport had 4 days straight
over 43c.
There were some big fires at that time especially in The Grampians.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-01-16/b ... ve/5204250

[JasmineStorm]

Certainly remember that Dane....was like an oven and I had a near miss with a decent fire as well.

I like to keep the big models honest, so had a look at yesterday’s event. My top was 39.3c and the last run of the models before the day kicked off for here had GFS predicting 38c, Access 37c, EC and CMC 33c. The poor old BoM were making it up as they went yesterday….the forecaster who downgraded the temp forecast would be shouting the bar today

I’ve been sitting on the fence with the Friday system all along, due to GFS not aligning with the others and this morning’s EC downgrade and Access’s move to the GFS scenario has now got me on board. It’s definitely a rain event but more a 5 to 15mm for most of Victoria with the north east getting more IMO. It’s summer, so a late upgrade can never be ruled out.

Heat is coming back late Sunday into Monday’s and we still might have an explosive line of storms Monday evening with plenty of available moisture, an upper trough and a southern front behind it. It still doesn’t line up perfectly on the latest runs but it’s one to keep an eye on.

[Wilko]

Not good
Feb could be real nasty for Fires
We need rain

[JasmineStorm]

This might be of interest in a future thread from the last GFS run.

http://www.theaustralianweatherforum.co ... 335#p98335

[WeatherViewer]

This might be of interest in a future thread from the last GFS run.

http://www.theaustralianweatherforum.co ... 335#p98335

Well spotted Jasmine, not liking the look of that.

[Macedonian]

17C at my place now. A lot cooler than yesterday

[JasmineStorm]

Nice little upgrades by the latest EC and Access runs for Friday morning in quite a few areas. EC has many areas around Melbourne 20 to 30mm now. Here I'm also heading towards 20mm. GFS remains lower. Sounding more positive for the moment

[hillybilly]

Been on the road so no replies

Squeezed out 1.4mm here yesterday in mizzle. After a few days in the high country (being backed by those hot uppers), back to a chilly 8C in FC.

Progs all look very good for tomorrow, except GFS. EC, ACCESS and CMC all have 15 to 30mm for most of Vic including Melbourne. GFS more like 10mm. Hope GFS is wrong..... as it's just starting to dry out.

Second system to follow up on Monday with similar totals on the models.

[StratoBendigo]

EC has certainly upped the ante and reckons 20mm here tomorrow morning. That would take us over our January average rainfall. Quite a bit of the Arafura Sea has ended up on outback Australia this summer....

[JasmineStorm]

Plenty going on in the last model runs….. I have about 15 internet explorer tabs opened to try and keep up Here is what I see that hasn’t already been covered this morning

Friday morning:
- Access R latest run at 8am AEST has upgraded to 20 to 30mm across a wide area of Vic. 60mm + in spots
- Atmospheric river at 10am AEST today has between 40 to 60mm precip water over S.A
- GFS upgraded to 10 to 25mm over a wide area of Vic on latest run.

Mad Monday:
- GFS just modelled high 30’s around Melbourne, low to mid 40’s in the Mallee. Strong NWesterly.
- Then a tropical water canon arrives from the north west. Insane Precip water levels around 50 to 70mm on GFS, CMC & CFS…. if all the triggers are there, late Monday will be a barrage of water bombs, CG’s, anvil crawlers and maybe an occasional F1 tornado in central and northern Vic. At the moment, it’s getting closer to lining up

http://stormcast.com.au/stormcast.html? ... :null:0#sc
http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php ... r=au&dpdt=


Other notable mentions past this thread in OZ that could influence Vic: Monsoonal lows, possible cyclones, a Landphoon, heat lows. There are so many variables , anything could happen from Jan 25th to Feb 4th.

[Tassiedave]

Just released by the BOM for North East and East of Tassie.

For people in parts of the
North East and
East Coast Forecast Districts.
Issued at 10:44 am Thursday, 19 January 2017.
Weather Situation
A low pressure system is expected to develop near King Island early on Friday morning. The low is expected to move east across Bass Strait during the morning, passing just south of Flinders Island around midday. Heavy rain with strong and gusty east to southeasterly winds are forecast to develop about the east coast during the morning as the low moves east into the Tasman Sea.
HEAVY RAIN which may lead to FLASH FLOODING is forecast for the east coast and inland areas between Eddystone Point and Swansea during Friday morning.
24 hour totals in the area are expected to be around 50mm to 80mm, however elevated areas will likely see totals around 70mm to 100mm. The majority of this rainfall is expected to fall in the morning with the chance that 3 hour totals will reach around 45mm over low lying areas.
Locations which may be affected include St Helens, Bicheno, Fingal and Scamander.