VIC: Sequence of troughs and lows. September 11 to 18

[Geoff]

Main rain band has cleared to the south and just a little bit of sunshine has already started convective showers breaking out in the unstable air.
We've been getting just the dregs left over from the ranges to the north here, but still done better than we usually do. But getting our heaviest rain of all now from the showers behind the main front. Blue sky on the north horizon, haven't seen much of that lately! Things could go bang this afternoon.

[StratoBendigo]

EC reckons another 10mm this afternoon with the wrap-around.

Meanwhile:

[droughtbreaker]

I think a few people might be forgetting September 1993. We had 283mm that month, (easily the wettest month here in the last 40 odd years) and Gisborne was severely flooded. I remember the football oval in the town full of water up to the top of the boundary fence like a swimming pool.

I also remember severe flooding in Wangaratta that same month with houses along the Ovens river almost completely submerged with just the roofs sticking out above the water.

Also, going deep back into the archives, September 1916 had widespread extreme rainfall with over 400mm in some west central Vic locations, eg. Blackwood and Riddells Creek, all the more remarkable for the fact that most of that fell in one week of the month.

It's certainly a very wet period atm, but by no means unprecedented.

[StratoBendigo]

I think a few people might be forgetting September 1993. We had 283mm that month, (easily the wettest month here in the last 40 odd years) and Gisborne was severely flooded. I remember the football oval in the town full of water up to the top of the boundary fence like a swimming pool.

I also remember severe flooding in Wangaratta that same month with houses along the Ovens river almost completely submerged with just the roofs sticking out above the water.

Also, going deep back into the archives, September 1916 had widespread extreme rainfall with over 400mm in some west central Vic locations, eg. Blackwood and Riddells Creek, all the more remarkable for the fact that most of that fell in one week of the month.

It's certainly a very wet period atm, but by no means unprecedented.

Yes, not unprecedented but certainly notable. Funny how the Sept 2016 floods occurred exactly 100 years ago! (Bendigo received 105mm in 3 days then, 153mm for the month).

Most forecast models reckon another 30-40mm or so in the coming week.

P.S. Really quite cold today even with the sun shining at times. Currently 10 degC with a 40 km/h gusts. Brrrrrr....

[Dane]

Dean Stewart from BOM said Ballarat just had its wettest 3 days since 1921

Not sure about that, Ballarat had 121.9mm's in one day on 6/2/1973.

[Geoff]

Getting small hail in all these little showers now, looks like bigger and better coming on the radar.

[Supercellimpact]

72mm in the gauge at my house, back creek is flowing strong. More showers to come by the looks of it.

[StratoBendigo]

Yep, rain has set in again. Very wintry outside.

Some enormous inflows into the big dams locally. On the Loddon system, Tullaroop is expected to spill this week and the river at Newstead is at Major Flood level into Cairn Curran.

Campaspe/Coliban is going nuts - 10000ML+ per day over Malmsbury Res and an expected 14000ML today at Redesdale. That's getting close to January 2011 inflows...

[hillybilly]

Had a series of heavy showers this arvo, some with hail. Little blue spots on radar, but coming down torrential

Event up to 45mm so ticking along nicely. Cold air is looping right around the low with a cold front of sorts to our north with that band of showers.

Be interesting to see how farmers fare at the end of this. Guessing those on sandy soils will be rapped. Those on clay soils may suffer water logging. Catchments out west which have been really struggling getting a good top up. The big dams at Rockland is still at just 20% and Eppalock and Cairn Curran at ~50%. Be interesting to watch them in coming days.

[StratoBendigo]

Be interesting to see how farmers fare at the end of this. Guessing those on sandy soils will be rapped. Those on clay soils may suffer water logging. Catchments out west which have been really struggling getting a good top up. The big dams at Rockland is still at just 20% and Eppalock and Cairn Curran at ~50%. Be interesting to watch them in coming days.

The Rocklands Dam amount was from Sept 7 and Eppalock should be close to around 70-80% in the next couple of days.

[Hawker]

Rain looks to have set in again, hopefully not
as much as we have had.
Have heard on the grapevine that Carisbrook is going
to be evacuated. Is this true Rhino?
thanks Chris

[Lara_Hunter]

Need some more in the dams, still lower than last year.

Not in west or central Vic. All storages (with the possible exception of Rocklands) will fill & spill on the strength of what we've had already this winter/ spring - many already have. This is the East Moorabool just above Bostock Reservoir this morning. It's a minor tributary at the very top of the catchment - Bostock was effectively empty in May and it will spill today.

Nice pic Gordon.. I hunt rabbits around the east Moorabool on the Mullane's property. Know that bridge! I usually jump that stream.

We've done well in Lara over the since Sunday morning with 53mm. Avalon has had a touch less but we are around 10km west of the Airport. It is getting scary for some, but it is very green around here, best since 2010/2011.

[Sean]

I stopped looking at the charts and got rain! I know the key, it's to stop whining.

20mm with the main bulk. Was a great day to be in the office. So cozy. I want the warm back, though.

[Didjman]

I will check Kilmores rain for the last 24hrs once this band has passed.
Peter

[typhoon29]

81mm since yesterday morning. Wettest 2 days since the week of storms in December 2005, then again I can't remember how much we had in 2011 when Creswick and Miners Rest flooded.

[Rhino]

Sorry chris, things have been a bit hectic here mate, seems like we should be ok. The creek is falling so thats good and just waiting for Tullaroop res to spill later tonight and see how it responds to that but a little like sep 2010 and playing the waiting game but we should be right.

Rhino.

[Gordon]

...just waiting for Tullaroop res to spill later tonight and see how it responds to that but a little like sep 2010 and playing the waiting game but we should be right.

Rhino.

That is incredible Rhino! I was at Tullaroop on Saturday and it was just 40-odd percent - miles from full . My mate looked at the high water mark 10 metres plus overhead and said, 'Surely it doesn't ever get up there?'

I see Rocklands has come up 5% this week - a long time since that last happened.

[Hawker]

No problem Rhino, I had figured, that you might have been preoccupied.
We will keep our fingers crossed.
Thanks Chris

[Didjman]

had some heavy stuff here. Waiting for it to pass to empty the rain gauge!
Peter

[Macedonian]

Where is Rocklands res?
Glad to.hear you are ok Rhino.
Jane Oneill posted fab video of Trentham Falls running at top speed.
Ive been out working in the rain all day, we have an open garden event at work this weekend and jeez it is going to be soggy!
Cold on the mountain, 3.5C now
78mm since sunday arvo here on top of 47mm last week.
Im loving it!