VIC: Sequence of troughs and lows. September 11 to 18

[Macedonian]

Heavy rain here.

[StratoBendigo]

Last hour has seen moderate rain. Now close to 15mm.

[Hawker]

Bbbrrr cold and very wet out there,
16mm so far and there should be a lot more,
very soggy under foot

[Skywalker]

7.5mm in the gauge here in Burnside Heights this morning. Pretty much on par with the rest of the metro area.

Looks like the heavier rain is about to hit, just in time for school drop off.

[hillybilly]

About 3mm more overnight in FC. Event up to ~21mm.

More rain incoming, and looking at a wet 72 hours for most of Vic with bands of rain rotating around the developing low.

BTW here's the sunrise from FC this morning. Had fractocumulus coming up the hill from the northeast with rain moving in from the northwest.

[I_Love_Storms]

Don't know what anyone in Central is worried about if they think they are missing out. The radar looks on track at the moment! http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDR023.loop.shtml

[Geoff]

Oh no. .. not a repeat of last week.
I was looking forward to today

It is so far stevco123, just a few spits here so far (and no nice sunrise either).
That huge blob of heavy rain is edging down but not really making it past the ranges yet.

[I_Love_Storms]

Surely it will make it over the ranges, that is some quite heavy rain. History suggests that type of rain band will push down eventually. We wait and see and hope GFS is right.

Next 48 hours according to GFS

That heavy rain will be further west if the low if further west. (EC has the low further west). Next 12 hours will be very exciting to watch

[I_Love_Storms]

This is for 10am this morning

[Wilko]

Here it comes
I think this is going to be a pretty big thread
DP 10 Humidity 96 winds light East
Lawn mowed, gutters whoops

[StratoBendigo]

It's really ramping up here. 20mm so far, with local drains and gullies starting to flow more than they have all winter.

[Geoff]

Yep, it's crossed the ranges now and is just arriving here.
An observation of mine, over too many years of watching and studying the weather, the biggest rain events I've witnessed have almost always started slowly and gradually built over time into massive events. No big crash, bang, wallop, just a gradual increase in intensity into a continuous, unrelenting deluge. We shall see if this is another of them.....

[Dane]

Another 13.3mm's up to 9am here, makes 22.5mm's in the last 48 hours.
Big rainband heading into Melbourne right now, so plenty more to come.

[Jake Smethurst]

Rained on and off overnight, got moderate at times. Closest gauge to us is Moorabbin, says 8mm to 9am this morning.

Raining quite moderately again now as the band pushed over the ranges. This should last another several hours at least. Definitely still thinking of isolated storms being possible once some of this breaks up later today - one to watch!

Interestingly I actually feel as if the current rain is more of a mix between GFS and both ACCESS models. ACCESS had the rain well to the west of Melbourne as the day goes on with the low developing further west, whereas GFS has the low a bit further east closer to central parts allowing us here to get the most. To me, at the moment it seems to be a mix of both models given where the rain is.

Will have to watch where the low actually develops because that will determine tonight and tomorrow's rain!

[I_Love_Storms]

GFS has nailed it so far.. let's see if it nails it over next 48 hours...it shows this:

[stevco123]

GFS has nailed it so far.. let's see if it nails it over next 48 hours...it shows this:

Images aren't showing.

are you able to provide a link at all?

I had issues too uploading my sunrise pic earlier

[I_Love_Storms]

http://stormcast.com.au/raincast.html?o ... :48:vic#sc

[Geoff]

Images aren't showing.

Images loaded fine for me stevco123.

[stevco123]

Hmmm. Could be browser issues, as I'm at work

Rain looks to be amplifying in the West???? As predicted?

[I_Love_Storms]

Interesting that BOM's Severe Weather Warning still have the main stuff hitting NW. Let's see how it eventuates as the GFS update in the last hour has it smashing Central and West Central (Which we can see happening right now!)