VIC: Sequence of troughs and lows. September 11 to 18

[typhoon29]

Had the inlwas visit yesterday, they live between Dunkeld and Hamilton, they said they have had 110mm since Thursday! Ark building times out that way!

[I_Love_Storms]

Flood watches out now http://www.bom.gov.au/vic/warnings/

[hillybilly]

18mm in FC for today. Next band is now inbound.

Going to be a wet couple of days. Thinking we should see 50-100mm this week in FC, depending on the exact track on the low.

Those rainfall amounts are remarkble for western Vic - this area doesn't usually get heavy falls as it's rain typically comes from fronts which tend to be fast moving.

[I_Love_Storms]

Yeah we saw what happened in coleraine the other day...could very easily be worse after this

[HarleyB]

Couple of places in West Gippsland have ticked over 10mm since 9am, up in the hills. Also a location just south-west of Horsham has passed 10mm too, so it's on its way now, in the radar hole atm. Going to be really interesting (not necessarily in a good way) to watch those tallies ticking up across the state.

[tonycynic]

Looks like that inbound stuff is starting to strengthen, going to be a wet night on the west side.

[I_Love_Storms]

Latest GFS is insane. Biggest I've seen even in La Niña years of 2010-11 I think! buckle up http://stormcast.com.au/raincast.html?o ... vic:nul#rc

[I_Love_Storms]

By the way it has 50mm of it over next 2 days in wide swathes of central vic

[Wilko]

GFS is on steroids
75mm for me and many parts 100mm
If and its a big if that comes to fruition then we will have major issues

[StratoBendigo]

I think GFS might be overcooking it. We might get about half of what it's forecasting IMO.

[I_Love_Storms]

The other models aren't massively dissimilar. Could be a perfect storm

[Wilko]

Raining now
Radar is intensifying
Too late to build the "Ark"

[StratoBendigo]

Well Swan Hill just scored 10mm in past 30 minutes...

[HarleyB]

And of course the Yarrawonga radar is down, impeccable timing as always! 6mm at Charlton after 9pm too, it's coming!

[Gordon]

Up to about 15 mm here so far. Hoping the forecast totals don't come off but not liking our chances. Glad we live on a hill!

[Jake Smethurst]

Been raining here for the past hour or so, becoming heavier now. Definitely one of the wettest periods since 2010/11. Keep an eye out for some thunderstorm activity tomorrow afternoon as some of this rain breaks up - only a small chance but a few sparks might get going. Expecting at least 50-75mm here in Parkdale, maybe more.

Mum and dad saw localised flooding in their neck of the woods (SW, just north of Port Campbell) from that last event, so they're not looking forward to this next burst which could well be 75-100mm going by latest models. Their farm is already waterlogged so much more will do significant damage. I'll be taking a trip down there Wednesday afternoon until the weekend so it will be interesting to see what the area looks like. The local main roads will no doubt be flooded by the many local creeks.

[Wilko]

Heavy rain now

[wobbie]

How terrrible is that radar hole?

[StratoBendigo]

Only light rain so far. It looks like the forecast models overestimated again.

Access-R seems to focus rain today out West. Let's see what this blob to our NW might deliver...

[stevco123]

Oh no. .. not a repeat of last week.

I was looking forward to today