VIC: Sequence of troughs and lows. September 11 to 18

[Vic]

Major downgrade from the latest GFS for the Melbourne region with most of the rain moving east, typical

[HarleyB]

My goodness Geoff, in the words of a certain AV, that would be biblical I'm looking at maybe 20mm here for the week, keeping things nicely topped up and hopefully more up at Lake Eildon!

[Wilko]

Interesting times over next 3 weeks at least
These models seem to all agree some major flooding now on the way for many parts of Vic
Good and bad news for our farmers

[Wilko]

Morning all
The Bay forcefeild is in full effect this morning

[hillybilly]

Wow the progs are wet, and for about half of OZ. This strong IOD is really cranking... Never seen anything like it. For winter waters around OZ were the warmest on record, and with the warmth concentrating to our northeast (and the western Indian Ocean and eastern Pacific rather cool) you set up plumes of tropical moisture from the northwest and set up cyclone formation to occur near the Bight.

10mm here overnight and the main rainband is still to move up.

Across the progs most have 50 to 150mm for Vic this week, depending on which run and which location. Tending to peak along the divide and Yarra Ranges.

Sadly looks like being mostly too warm in the alps with rain and snow, but mainly rain.

[stevco123]

A healthy 10mm so far for the 'event'. Started raining about 10pm last night and hasn't reallly stopped, although there were some small breaks.

[Skywalker]

2.5mm in the gauge back home in Burnside Heights so far. Probably end up with about 5mm by the end of the day.

[Wilko]

Ok now I'm starting to get a little excited
Highett forecast
EC has 80mm for week
GFS and Access 50mm +

[Geoff]

Feeling a bit under the weather myself (cough and cold) so I may as well take some time out and watch it all unfold this week. 100mm of rain is not conducive to good gardening in my book.

[stevco123]

Bit concerned to see no more showers developing behind this lot.

Although the whole night and morning they've been developing out of nowhere

[I_Love_Storms]

SA radar is going nuts. The trough exploding over there. Heavy rain to push into Western Vic shortly.

[StratoBendigo]

Just a waiting game here. EC doesn't have the rain starting until after mid-afternoon. Let's see what happens... (Might be a bit like that slow moving system in April 2014 which dumped 75mm on us over 3 days).

[HarleyB]

This is looking a little concerning actually, still quite a bit of flooding around from last week's event. If we got 75mm here for the week there'd be a lot of trouble I suspect.
This is a snapshot of what's still left in flood at the current time. I'm quite surprised BOM haven't issued any new Flood Watches this week.

Capture.PNG (24.19 KiB) Viewed 5719 times

[Geoff]

I was just having a look at the current BOM seasonal rainfall outlook for Sept-Nov. Too early to call for Oct-Nov but I think they might want to reassess their September outlook for 45%-55% chance of exceeding the mean rainfall.....

[wobbie]

SA radar is going nuts. The trough exploding over there. Heavy rain to push into Western Vic shortly.

Melbourne to be in the Adelaide rain shadow again?

[StratoBendigo]

Upper Coliban Reservoirs are full and overflowing now. "Game On" for the rivers into Lake Eppalock....
http://www.coliban.com.au/site/root/wat ... voirs.html

Today was always going to be Adelaide's day.

[stevco123]

Just a waiting game here. EC doesn't have the rain starting until after mid-afternoon. Let's see what happens... (Might be a bit like that slow moving system in April 2014 which dumped 75mm on us over 3 days).

You could be onto something. Radar showing something is starting to get going to the west of Melbourne

[hillybilly]

Bit concerned to see no more showers developing behind this lot.

As expected. The next shot of rain is back over in SA which should be with us towards evening. ACCESS-R shows this really nicely. Will be a rainy night.

Had 16mm in FC now for the event, and totals still rising slowly with drizzly rain.

[StratoBendigo]

Latest Access-R looks, ummmm...... rather ominous for us in the coming couple of days (as in nearly 80mm). Rain has just started.

[Dane]

9.2mm's up to 9am here (Melb Water Cranbourne Sth had 13mm's)
4.6mm's since 9am (Melb Water Cran sth 6.6mm's) almost nothing since midday though.
Max temp here so far just 12.2c.
Rain MTD 23mm's.