Strong cold front and lows: July 10 -

[Harley34]

Hello, it's been over a year since my last post. The weather has been interesting lately with the ECL's, the wind and the decent rainfall, particularly in the east. We have a large low to develop in the bight, deepen and then, an associated strong cold front with an inland, connecting and sharp trough looking to hit SE VIC...

http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/4day_col.shtml

Thoughts?

[Gordon]

Looking spectacular; expecting snow here Monday night/Tuesday with a southerly fetch like that.

[Macedonian]

Ooh Yeh! We want it from the deep south!

[Geoff]

Things may change of course, but given how deep that southerly fetch is forecast at the moment, I'd expect lower temperatures than they're currently predicting.

[hillybilly]

GFS update is one of the coldest progs I've seen for a while. 850Ts below -4C for more than a day, and touching -5C. Those numbers mean snow for the Dandenongs.

Showers should be OK - particularly with the strong front on Tuesday.

Beforehand, Sunday into Monday looking very windy, mild, and wet. Expecting heavy falls of rain on the northern slopes into the northeast. Going to make a mess of the snowcover up there (before it turns back to snow). Could even see temps approach 20C in Gippsland with a strong Foehn set-up and 850T popping up to around 8C just south of the divide.

[BringOnTheCoolChange]

I hope i get some snow at 400m, it usually misses us, and if does snow, we usually don't get any cover of settling snow. It's like a snow shadow on my part of the Tourist Rd.

[Wilko]

Jane Bunn last night on ch7 said snow down to 300m

[Geoff]

...and yet EC(Yr) has raised our max for Tuesday to 7c now, and got rid of the snow symbol they had. AccessG too has a slightly less deep southerly fetch this morning, so maybe it's not going to happen. Need a couple more runs to be more confident.

[Macedonian]

Haha! What a surprise.
Snow??? Talk to me about it in the 24 hours leading up to the event.
5days out is asking for dissapointment!

[93ben]

So far storm chasers on Facebook are saying sleet is possible for the Melbourne CBD on Tuesday. They also say snow is now predicted to reach as low as 100 to 200 metres above sea level. That means Doncaster Hill might see snow! Not 100% sure with this system but it's looking like coldest system in years! Tassie is also mentioned to get snow as low as sea level!

[Macedonian]

What is the highest point in melbourne? Not including Dandenong Ranges.
How high is Doncaster Hill?
The airport is around 160m i think.

[Geoff]

What is the highest point in melbourne?

Did a bit of Googling and found Mt Ridley near Diggers Rest at 289 metres is the highest point in the Melbourne area, though not strictly the metro area.
In the metro area the highest point seems to be Mount Cooper in Bundoora at 137 metres.
To get snow on either of them would be remarkable.

[stevco123]

Then you've also got the hills above the Police Paddocks in Dandenong North/Rowville topping out at about 200m asl, although, granted, it's not populated - but all around it is and would easily be visible to the suburbs near it.

In a very few short years, when Melbourne extends to Wallan and Kilmore, there will definitely be more and more reports of snow as these areas get up to (and above) 450m.

For me a forecast of snow down to 200m equals to flurries at sea level at the very least. We always hear the stories of how the forecast was for snow to 500m, but there were flurries at 300m.

I'm still taking this 'exciting' forecast for exactly that (a forecast) as there has been numerous in the past few years of talk to very low levels, only to eventuate to nothing at all. I for one will be waiting for the forecast on Monday night to see what happens.

[93ben]

In the metro area the highest point seems to be Mount Cooper in Bundoora at 137 metres.

Yeah and Doncaster Hill Comes in second at 129m asl

[occluded]

Going by Google Maps API there's plenty of "higher" spots in the East, the Police Academy at Glen Waverley and Canterbury Rd through Heathmont at around 150 metres,Mt Dandenong Rd in Croydon and Kent Ave/Maroondah Hwy in Croydon around 160 metres and Kangaroo Ground at 170 metres. Snow at any of those spots would be a surprise to say the least - think I'll stick to going up to Mt Dandenong

Fog this morning as forecast.

[hillybilly]

Progs seem to be holding well for the next few days.

First front moving in for tomorrow. Mild air mass with this, and strong/gale force winds. The parent low is bombing in the Bight Currently. Thinking substantial falls on the northern slopes - which will make a mess of the snowcover in the alps. The air is being drawn from a long way north and freezing levels are above 2000m. Southern areas will get a pretty strong rainshadow. Still, hoping for ~10mm here.

Monday looks like a bit of an inbetween day. Will be blustery, but most showers will be topographic.

Tuesday brings the strong front coming through mid to late in the day. Lots of showers and 850Ts dropping to around -5C overnight. Could well see some sleet and snow to quite low levels on the backend of the change (Macedon & Gordon ).

But... it looks pretty westerly with the coldest air on Wesdnesday AM which worries me. EC and ACCESS keep the showers mostly coastly. Hoping this isn't a repeat of the 2005 event. Thinking we'll get snow here, but not a lot (that could change if progs become wetter). Hate to say it but these big lows often fiz for us in southern Victoria (same hapened in August 1997 and August 2014 when we had temps cold enough for snow to sea level but minimal precip away from the coast). We really need the winds to go southwest on Wednesday to spread the showers inland.

Last time we had snow into the burbs here was August 2008 (it snowed down to the uppper parts of Boronia on that day). Before then we had snow below 100m in the foothills here in September 2002. Last really good low level snowfall was September 1995 (it snowed across lots of suburbs with settling in higher spots like Burwood) and you could see snow on the hills north of Melbourne around Epping for a couple of days after that one.

[Geoff]

But... it looks pretty westerly with the coldest air on Wesdnesday AM which worries me.

I agree, it's all looking too westerly to me too. Chances of snow here are looking less with each model run. Sure it'll be cold, and maybe some flakes mixed in with the coldest air overnight Tuesday, but I'm losing hope of proper snow. Would be delighted to wake up to a white world on Wednesday, but I don't see it happening at this point.

[BringOnTheCoolChange]

Now the question here now is, will i have any chance of settling snow at 400m? or would we need an event like 2008, where we had flurries down to Belgrave South.

[Geoff]

Well the BOM are certainly keen in this evening's forecast for Tuesday night-Wednesday. If they're still keen this time tomorrow I may allow myself to get a little excited.

[hillybilly]

GFS is still keen, but ACCESS and particularly EC don't have much with the cold air. Looks too westerly on the current runs.

Hoping to see them upgrade (or wrong).

Tomorrows front look good for northern and elevated areas. Tuesday's front then brings a second good burst. Cold air arrives Tuesday evening.