Vic: Trough then cut-off low: Last week of January 2016

stevco123 · Post by **stevco123** » Sat Jan 30, 2016 2:20 pm

So potentially, going by the forecast, eastern metro and east of Melbourne won't get any rain or minimal rain? That's how i interpret it

Gordon · Post by **Gordon** » Sat Jan 30, 2016 2:34 pm

stevco123 » Sat Jan 30, 2016 1:20 pm wrote:
stevco123 wrote:So potentially, going by the forecast, eastern metro and east of Melbourne won't get any rain or minimal rain? That's how i interpret it

It's very confusing. As Robyn's originally posted Flood Watch that covered eastern Melbourne catchments (posted at 10.46 am) has disappeared with the western Melbourne Flood Watch posted 12 minutes later, (and then the Barwon etc. Flood Watch issued at 11.22 am) you'd have to assume the first one was issued in error. However, BOM normally print .....CANCELLED in the text when a subsequent warning or watch replaces an earlier one?

Also, the Severe Weather Warning remains for all sides of Melbourne/ Central District (i.e. North Central, West & South Gippsland and South-west), which would suggest eastern suburbs are also due for heavy rain? I think BOM need to issue updated forecasts to clarify, and sooner rather than later.

I_Love_Storms · Post by **I_Love_Storms** » Sat Jan 30, 2016 3:06 pm

I think the initial flood watch posted up here relates to Friday morning.

It appears the BOM if forecasting the low to position itself directly below the eastern suburbs, hence heavy rain wrapping around on either side through Western central and Gippsland. If the low doesn't follow the forecasts and positions further east, then Melbourne and eastern suburbs will get hit hard. I think EC has the set up BOM are forecasting and GFS has the low further south I assume as the rain is much less for most areas.

I reckon the BOM and EC will be right on this occasion, I hope the low sets itself up a bit further East though. Its been evolving literally every hour so the new GFS will be interesting and important.

Gordon · Post by **Gordon** » Sat Jan 30, 2016 3:22 pm

I_Love_Storms » Sat Jan 30, 2016 2:06 pm wrote:
I_Love_Storms wrote:I think the initial flood watch posted up here relates to Friday morning.

You're right ILS - I saw the date on the Severe Weather Warning (30 Jan) and automatically assumed it applied to the Flood Watch below - my mistake.

In that case it does seem as if the emphasis has definitely shifted west... for now!

I_Love_Storms · Post by **I_Love_Storms** » Sat Jan 30, 2016 3:54 pm

Latest GFS has main falls in North west and east Gippsland as it has the low centre right over Melbourne overnight. The low is currently to the ne of Melbourne near the border. If it comes down and sits to our East, melbourne suburbs will fair much better

Gordon · Post by **Gordon** » Sat Jan 30, 2016 4:02 pm

The latest ACCESS-R seems to show one reason for the bullish west central Vic warnings:

stevco123 · Post by **stevco123** » Sat Jan 30, 2016 4:07 pm

Looks like that low is starting to develop now.

If it takes the path the forecast path then Melbournes east may definitely miss out.

Very interesting indeed

Gordon · Post by **Gordon** » Sat Jan 30, 2016 4:10 pm

Well, it would share the love a bit

Latest Ballarat forecast for tomorrow has jumped from 'A shower or two' this morning to 'Rain, possible heavy falls'

Wilko · Post by **Wilko** » Sat Jan 30, 2016 4:28 pm

Be surprised if we get more than one or 2 mm in Moorabbin
Very rarely get rain from the setups in my area

stevco123 · Post by **stevco123** » Sat Jan 30, 2016 4:34 pm

Wilko » Sat Jan 30, 2016 3:28 pm wrote:
Wilko wrote:Be surprised if we get more than one or 2 mm in Moorabbin
Very rarely get rain from the setups in my area

Contrary to Moorabbin, looks like we got some heading out this way towards cranbourne for now.

Regarding west vs east, we'll let you westerners have this one, as long as you let us have at least 20mm out of it. k?

Skywalker · Post by **Skywalker** » Sat Jan 30, 2016 5:42 pm

Okay guys, I will apologise in advance. The real reason why the eastern side of Melbourne may not get anything is because I'm currently out here in the south east. I've brought my usually dry boring western conditions with me.

Back to the weather, that cell on the radar near Warragul has caught my attention.

Wilko · Post by **Wilko** » Sat Jan 30, 2016 6:14 pm

I hope your right Stevco
Extraordinary amount of rain heading from up north

Geoff · Post by **Geoff** » Sat Jan 30, 2016 6:24 pm

Wilko wrote:Extraordinary amount of rain heading from up north

Yes, just look at it all coming down from eastern NSW, and seems to be increasing with time, any of us will do well to completely miss out from that lot!

Post by **hillybilly** » Sat Jan 30, 2016 6:30 pm

Looking good IMHO (if you want rain). As with these type of lows heaviest falls typically occur in the wrap around to the south and east of the low which will tend to favour areas west and northwest of Melbourne. Those of us out east get the leftover. Thinking about 10mm here, maybe 20mm.

This one should favour the Geelong to Macedon to Bendigo area. Good to share it around

Getting thundery just east of here - a local fall of 14mm out near Bunyip already.

typhoon29 · Post by **typhoon29** » Sat Jan 30, 2016 6:31 pm

Gordon » Sat Jan 30, 2016 4:10 pm wrote:
Gordon wrote:Well, it would share the love a bit

Latest Ballarat forecast for tomorrow has jumped from 'A shower or two' this morning to 'Rain, possible heavy falls'

Yeah what the F? 50mm falls possible?! Pfft! how about 0mm

Geoff · Post by **Geoff** » Sat Jan 30, 2016 6:41 pm

That first big blob passing through Seymour now should be over you by 9pm-ish typhoon29, hope it holds together!

Sean · Post by **Sean** » Sat Jan 30, 2016 7:09 pm

Can we expect these patches to fill in?

Skywalker · Post by **Skywalker** » Sat Jan 30, 2016 7:17 pm

Looks like that cell coming down from Koo Wee Rup has hit the Northern side of French Island & is going to skip west of here. Have a visual of the cloud out my window.

Wilko · Post by **Wilko** » Sat Jan 30, 2016 7:20 pm

EC has upgraded for Highett with 30mm onight

Wilko · Post by **Wilko** » Sat Jan 30, 2016 7:26 pm

I'm not usually optimistic about the sort of systems but Geez the radar is intensifying
Could be a very significant event overnight
Don't wanna put the Moz on it but I like it so far
Some areas will get 80mm plus on current trend

The Australian Weather Forum

Vic: Trough then cut-off low: Last week of January 2016

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