Vic: Trough then cut-off low: Last week of January 2016

[stevco123]

What's up with the rain direction?

It's going this way and that way, no real path.

10.4mm from this band for me, 40.2mm for the event and 64.2mm for the month, slightly more than Dane's total 5 kms away in Cranbourne East.

Noticed yesterday that all the grass is now mostly green down here.

[I_Love_Storms]

Rain is forming and wrapping around the low. Getting very dark in the CBD expecting it to unload soon.

Yeah probably had a similar total in Rowville Stevco. Been a really good event so far with what looks like another 20-40mm before it is done!

[wobbie]

Rain is forming and wrapping around the low. Getting very dark in the CBD expecting it to unload soon.

Yeah probably had a similar total in Rowville Stevco. Been a really good event so far with what looks like another 20-40mm before it is done!

Looks like the city is in the "eye"

Nice national radar at the moment

[hillybilly]

Did really well this morning. 28mm in just on three hours. Good solid rain.

Cleared now, but getting unstable. Expecting more showers as the arvo goes on.

[Geoff]

27mm here this morning.
Absolutely fascinating watching the radar at the moment with bands of rain milling around and filling in, almost the whole 128km radar screen could be covered with rain in a few hours the way it's going.
Pretty cold out there now at just 13C.

[Macedonian]

Rumbling awAy and black as coal just to my west.
No dice here though. When I drive down the farm road to work there is still raised dust.
Just got back from a trip to Gisborne at lunch and there was water running in the kerbside gutters down there.

Not here
I can't believe we can miss everything! Grrrr!

[Geoff]

I reckon that little red cell has got your name on it Macedonian. Good luck!

[Wilko]

Radar filling in
Looks like rain periods all night

[Blackie]

I'd like to know what the wrap around is going to do; where it will end up and over what areas. Any predictions?

Still nothing in the city area since the rain stopped this morning despite the blackness ILS mentioned earlier.

[I_Love_Storms]

Don't know what to expect! It looks good as very slow moving, but once this passes us then it'll be dry for a while, hopefully then get the back of the low on Sunday. GFS had 50mm for eastern suburbs in 18z, but 00z drops it to 25mm and more isolated as well...even the models struggle with lows like this...I will take 25mm to be honest with 40mm so far.

[Wilko]

It looks like my area in Moorabbin may get hit soon as
the rain bands converge
Fingers crossed as been very dry

[I_Love_Storms]

Severe Weather Warning
for heavy rainfall
for people in the North Central, North East, Central, West and South Gippsland and East Gippsland forecast districts
Issued at 3:56 pm EDT on Friday 29 January 2016.
Weather Situation
A broad area of low pressure that will persist over Victoria over the next few days is combining with humid and unsettled conditions today to create a band of rain and isolated thunderstorms over central and eastern districts. The rain and storms will gradually contract to Gippsland later this evening.

Heavy rain and isolated thunderstorms which may lead to FLASH FLOODING are forecast for the West and South Gippsland and East Gippsland forecast districts and parts of the North Central, North East and Central forecast districts.

The State Emergency Service advises that rainfall run-off into waterways in recent fire affected areas may contain debris such as soil, ash, trees and rocks. People in fire affected areas should also be alert to the potential for landslides and debris across roads.

The State Emergency Service advises that people should:

Don't drive, ride or walk through flood water.
Keep clear of creeks and storm drains.
For emergency help in floods and storms, ring your local SES Unit on 132 500.

The next warning will be issued by 11:00 pm EDT Friday.

http://www.bom.gov.au/vic/warnings/severe.shtml" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[I_Love_Storms]

Thunder in hawthorn

[Blackie]

Thunder in Sth Melbourne

[Supercellimpact]

It's sad seeing all the rain down south and there's nothing but sun up here.

[Hawker]

I'm with you on that on that one Sci. There should be a law against it.

[Geoff]

Chin up you guys in Bendigo, Castlemaine etc., Sunday could be your day.
Bendigo January average is about 33mm according to the BOM, how much have you had up there so far?
Steady rain has set in here again, though I planted a shrub in the garden this afternoon and the soil was still dusty 3 inches down. Need a lot more rain still.

[occluded]

Poured on the Eastern Freeway driving in, poured on the Eastern Freeway driving home. Been dry most of the day at work in Windsor.

I got a nice 'welcome home' of a long roll of thunder right across the sky north to south, and now it's raining properly. About time too.

[StratoBendigo]

Chin up you guys in Bendigo, Castlemaine etc., Sunday could be your day.
Bendigo January average is about 43mm according to the BOM, how much have you had up there so far?
Steady rain has set in here again, though I planted a shrub in the garden this afternoon and the soil was still dusty 3 inches down. Need a lot more rain still.

Our longer term average (taking into account Bendigo Prison's 1863-1991 reporting) is about 33mm. Bendigo AWS has had 24mm MTD, but only 14mm in pretty much the rest of town this month.

I'm not optimistic about Sunday because we're living in a desert that at present is acting like a force-field against any decent precipitation. Any convective storm or rainband just runs out of steam and gives us nothing. Many people are really getting down in the dumps about it....

Btw, 00Z Access-R has all the rain to our South again.

Longer term the BOM climate outlook reckons a cold and wet Feb - April for us. I'll believe it when I see it. I kind of see parallels with 1994-1995 - a hot and dry December, wet January (in Melb anyway), and cold and damp March - April as ElNino dies.

[Australis(Shell3155)]

Try Living in Horsham.. then you no what No Rain is..