Vic: Trough then cut-off low: Last week of January 2016

[Tassiedave]

Still waiting in the central north of Tassie. Only 2.6 mm in Launceston so we have finally cracked 10mm for January. Gray a small town on the East Coast, 10km from the coast and 320m elevation has had 85 mm.

[Wilko]

3mm here in Highett
Would rather that than the Geelong deluge
Plenty more to come

[Lily]

ILS, just shy of 14mm here in Lysterfield which I thought couldn't be right, yet a nearby WS has recorded 9.9mm (under-reading?). A few sites closer to the foothills (Upwey, UFTG) doubled totals in these parts. We had a few brief-ish heavy downpours, but mostly on and off rain with a few extended periods of heavier falls. Was watching the radar and we kept juuuuust missing out on some of the bigger stuff, yet further down in Rowville (closer to Stud Rd) falls seemed to be heavier.

[nafets]

Bit off track but I'm In port Douglas right now, experiencing the most incredible storm that has lasted for over an hour and by the looks of the radar not stopping soon! Incredibly close flangs rattling the house, with the power turning off every now and then!! Would guess in excess of 50mm in the past 30mins... Hoping for the same back home. Good to see some high totals around Victoria albeit isolated, few more days worth of chances to come.

[wobbie]

ILS, just shy of 14mm here in Lysterfield which I thought couldn't be right, yet a nearby WS has recorded 9.9mm (under-reading?). A few sites closer to the foothills (Upwey, UFTG) doubled totals in these parts. We had a few brief-ish heavy downpours, but mostly on and off rain with a few extended periods of heavier falls. Was watching the radar and we kept juuuuust missing out on some of the bigger stuff, yet further down in Rowville (closer to Stud Rd) falls seemed to be heavier.

I had 14mm too. It was hit and miss, intensifying, dying and moving around all at once

[hillybilly]

Another warm humid morning up here

BTW here's a shot of the storm yesterday evening over Geelong. 12Mp shot taken at 120m with the DJI phantom. Lighting was a little low. Would have loved to send it up before the main event (~6pm) but was too windy and the air just too turbulent.



All the ingredients for another stormy day. The ACCESS-R model loop is worth looking at. Really complex with three different features coming into play.
1) The trough about 150km southwest of Melbourne moves through the city around 2pm. By then it should have a strong band of storms stretching well into northern Vic. This change seems to wash out later as the new low coming up from the south comes to dominate.
2) Later tonight the second low takes over with a slow moving rainband which move west->east. Progs being showing 12+ hours of rain, so could add up. Looks like a rainy night for much of Vic - it looks like peaking in central parts.
3) The parent low rotates up into western Victoria or eastern SA early tomorrow. This has a wrap around rain band and storms. And pushes precip well north.

Beyond that it's a big sprawling low complex with rain bands into next week. There is strong warm air advection in northeasterlies into northern Tasmania and perhaps eastern Vic later Fri and Sat which will produce heavy rain. Melbourne becomes a bit hit miss sitting near the centre of the complex. Could get showers, storms, storms or nothing depending on exactly which low is dominant and where it sits.

ACCESS-R at http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/ ... fresh+View" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Good to see some substantial rain west of Melbourne overnight (includng 42mm at Mt William) and heavy rain developing in eastern Tasmania.

[I_Love_Storms]

ILS, just shy of 14mm here in Lysterfield which I thought couldn't be right, yet a nearby WS has recorded 9.9mm (under-reading?). A few sites closer to the foothills (Upwey, UFTG) doubled totals in these parts. We had a few brief-ish heavy downpours, but mostly on and off rain with a few extended periods of heavier falls. Was watching the radar and we kept juuuuust missing out on some of the bigger stuff, yet further down in Rowville (closer to Stud Rd) falls seemed to be heavier.

Yeah, the reason I reckon it was about 20 or even 25mm is that my house rarely floods but the amount of water that was coming down had me very worried the garage may flood with gutters seriously overflowing and lots of water building around the garage. May be a bit of my own fault for not clearing the gutters for 12 months, but we were under yellow/orange at my place on and off for over an hour.

Excited for today. The atmosphere is very humid again and there will be more cold air interaction today (hence the BOMs forecast which specifically includes the chance of gusty winds and hail with storms). Yesterday's storms were more so high precipitation storms, rather than having the other severe phenomena. Today there is a higher risk of damaging/destructive winds and large hail.

[Hawker]

We had a nice wake up call this morning.
At about 5.45 the thunder woke me up, then we had a nice downpour for 20mins.
We were underneath the cell that went over Castlemaine.
20mms to add to yesterdays mammoth 2mm.
I was hoping to see that it was widespread, but maybe more
today for those still waiting, perhaps a bit more to come in the next little one.
Cheers Chris

[Macedonian]

Another whopping 0.5mm up here overnight, that brings us to a princely totally of 0.9mm for the event so far
We are rocking it at Mount Macedon!

[Hawker]

Yeh Macedonian watch out for all the mud, when you go outside,dangerous stuff when slippery.

[I_Love_Storms]

Organising quickly out west, line of storms developing!

[Hawker]

There are some good looking towers going up out to the west.
Definitely unstable out there.

[Didjman]

On a property over the road, they are pouring concrete slab for a house lol! Didnt anyone tell them about the impending weather?
Peter

[StratoBendigo]

All looks too far South for us. Sitting on 1mm so far and any more than 5mm this week in the desert would be a miracle.

[Didjman]

Some of those turrets to the SW of here are "Capping out", but I suspect not for long.
Peter

[Wilko]

I wanted nice and sunny till lunchtime for max heat

[Didjman]

That line is making a beeline for Geelong.
Peter

[I_Love_Storms]

That line is making a beeline for Geelong.
Peter

Yes good pick up. Could be some more heartache for Avalon/Geelong residents

[Wilko]

Awesome synopsis Hillybilly
An I seeing correct on your Access R
That low does a clockwise loop ..now I've seen everything

[Gordon]

Heavy rain here at last with a bit of thunder. Don't know for how long, but at least we'll record something and make start for this event!