Vic: Trough then cut-off low: Last week of January 2016

[hillybilly]

Coming down nice and hard now Not torrential but will add up if it continues for long. Multiple fairly dull rumbles. Also gone into fog.

The convergence between the southerly outflow and the humid northeasterly is place well for us now.

Totals adding up nicely just south of us with lots of 10 to 15mm near the Burwood highway. Good pick by GFS - had instability peaking over Melbourne's east this arvo with storms. Just took time.

EDIT> Torrential here now. Rain rate of ~100mm/hr. Cell is really slow moving - this could be worth 25mm plus or more. Just had some small hail.

A photo. Rain rate of 120mm/hr at the time.

[Geoff]

Yesssss! Just started pouring down!

[hillybilly]

Torrential rain here just going and going. Not seen anything like this for years. 25mm and still coming down at ~60mm/hr. Backyard is a sheet of water. Spots around us showing 15-30mm. Looks like a lot more to come looking at the radar.

BTW just had a huge booming thunder

[Dane]

Had 11mm's now - Cranbourne South has had 18mm's.
Easing off now hopefully more of the same tomorrow.

[Didjman]

Zip here, and nothing coming.
Peter

[Onetahuti]

The inner tube of the Nylex was overflowing so estimate 27 to 28 mm in total for today.

[hillybilly]

Zip here, and nothing coming.

Hoping everyone gets their fair share. Been a horrible summer for those in rural areas, and one good storm can turn things around. We've now shot passed our January average with a MTD of 75mm. Storm has dropped 32mm and still raining heavy (though eased a little).

GFS did an amazing job of picking the peak instability and flash flood potential this arvo, focussed in central Vic (though guess it has to be right eventually ).

[typhoon29]

still 0mm here, Ballarat seems to have missed again that would be the 3-4th time all the storm activity has been just to the north or the south. Always heading away!

[James]

some nice rain with a few rumbles thrown in! - dont have to water the vegetable garden after all!

wow would you look at geelong way...looks like its not over for them!

[mick]

Had a 20 min burst here, not quite tropical, just heavy

One huge flang, and a shotgun .5 sec later, best I have heard for a few years.
Mayve some action about to start over the bay, its clearish, so maybe some
good lighting shots.

[Jake Smethurst]

Glad a fair few have had some good falls! Would estimate about 10mm here. Lots of lightning and thunder, couple of flangs Definitely a good pick by GFS as DJ says. And good forecasting by many on here

Another cell near Geelong, not sure if it will make it over the bay or not, wouldn't mind a second round, albeit smaller.

[hillybilly]

Looks like we'll finish on 37mm. Very happy with that. Done the best locally - just sat under an orange blog for an hour with it hardly budging. BTWMTD ~80mm.

Doubt that cell near Geelong will last long, but one can always hope. Upper support for kicking on past sunset is poor.

Next part to the event comes tomorrow as the the front/low southwest of us pushes up. EC has another ~40mm here from mid morning Thur to mid morning Sat. Each part will peak in different spots, so those who have missed out get more chance. Has two parts - first showers/storms developing in the unstable airmass then a band of rain moving through on the wind change.

Quite surprised by the intensity of the rainfall gradients. FC AWS just ~3km less than us has had ~15mm less, Baywater about 10km to our north has had ~20mm less. Similar with the Geelong cells - 70mm at Avalon Ap, but just 10mm at Avalon proper. Slow moving dumpers can do this.

[tonycynic]

Less than 10 mm here in Mt Ev so just missed out on a heap. Still better than nothing. Hope the rest of you get some tomorrow.

[Geoff]

Just trained the binoculars on the Nylex, looks to be about 17mm so far, just about finishing here now according to the radar. Happy with that seeing as it was looking doubtful a couple of hours ago. Ground is nice and wet now so all further rainfall should soak in nicely over the coming days.

[jimmyay]

2mm in Moorabin

[mick]

looking at the tank I think I got 5mm, have to be under a burst.

Still all well needed rain.

Feb cmes and no sign of summer, if no heat wave by 14th feb, it aint coming. maybe a mild autumn, got that feel about it.

[Gordon]

Not such a good pick by GFS here? We were in the sweet spot for all recent runs except the last one; yet everything has trailed through well north or south of us That lifting index chart hillybilly posted had us the second row behind the bullseye.

Still warm and humid, so quite surprised at our zero total so far. Just as well there are more chances to come.

[I_Love_Storms]

Don't have a rain gauge here but I'm sure we got about 20mm in Rowville. I saw someone posted 20mm in Dandenong so not far away! Was on and off torrential for an hour.

[hillybilly]

Not such a good pick by GFS here?

With pulse storms you can only really pick the areas where it's unstable. Beyond that a lot comes down to random variations/luck. Guess that's why people are never confident about where/when/how much. You can pick the area where they are most likely but beyond that not really.

Locally Coldstream has only had 3mm compared to ~30mm just to the south. They just lucked out - slightly too far north.

It's different when it organised along a front or by topography.

[Onetahuti]

Don't have a rain gauge here but I'm sure we got about 20mm in Rowville. I saw someone posted 20mm in Dandenong so not far away! Was on and off torrential for an hour.

I ended up with 28 mm in Dandenong North. The Melbourne Water automatic site in Rowville registered 24.4 mm, http://www.melbournewater.com.au/waterd ... l-new.aspx" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;