Vic: Trough then cut-off low: Last week of January 2016

[Gordon]

Looking pretty good for decent rain over large parts of the south-east, including Vic. (If we keep saying it, we will be right eventually )

I like this from the latest BOM notes (my bold): 'A low pressure trough over northeast Victoria will drift slowly westward and deepen over western Victoria on Wednesday then move eastwards on Thursday to reach eastern parts of the State later Thursday. A separate low pressure system will develop to the west of Tasmania later on Thursday then move over Victoria on Friday where it will remain until at least Saturday.' Seems like there are chances for rain over several days, which always helps!

Hope Tas gets its share Tassiedave, you are way overdue.

[hillybilly]

EC still showing about 80mm here. Hasn't budged for days. Hard to believe looking at the radar and satellite which has little, but the combination of an approaching upper trough and humid surface winds tending northeasterly mean we'll got rapidly into upslide (i.e., cloud then rain).

Fantastic day here today - 25C, humid and a cooling southeast wind. Only thing missing was a thunderstorm to finish off the arvo BBQ

[I_Love_Storms]

Yep in line with models. Gfs has 60-80mm for some central areas the next few days including 25-40mm just tomorrow for isolated areas. EC also going for 50mm for mainly east central. Looking good as not far out now

[Skywalker]

What can I expect back here in the western desert tomorrow guys? Trying to decide whether to cycle or drive into work tomorrow.

[Jake Smethurst]

Getting very excited! Not much change really in the models (do we ever get to say that? ). I'll do another re-analysis post tomorrow morning. Good to see some showers and storms already developing about the northeast of the state, they should continue on and off overnight slowly spreading south.

Skywalker, likely to be some showers developing in the morning. Not sure if you want to risk it! Although if you ride to work surely that will mean it will rain

[Wilko]

Tstorms developing
Could be interesting morning
1st Bom warning out already

[Supercellimpact]

Lightning covering the southern sky here, evidence of more convection to the west and NW. Should be a great morning and day of storms !

[Geoff]

.....and so it begins!

[Didjman]

Woken by a flang! Camera gear was all packed up - isnt now. lol
Peter

[hillybilly]

Just sitting here waiting. Winds going progressively north as the trough deepens and develops to our west. Really humid out there.

Apparently rumbles overnight (I slept through them) and a dull rumble from a cell about 30km to our south. Progs spread in south the next few hours, so should be quite general by noon. Next two days could well bring the best storm outbreak in a long while (though November last year was pretty good).

[Australis(Shell3155)]

Dry here at Wyw River, all packed up in case,
Hopefully can get well on the road before although major falls.

[StratoBendigo]

Another "Epic Fail" here yet again. While Bendigo AWS did Ok with 7mm, we managed only 0.5mm. Clearing skies to our West and strong smell of rain where it did fall. We simply can't take a trick this summer.

Can't see more than 10mm for the rest of the week.

[hillybilly]

Can't see more than 10mm for the rest of the week.

Just the start of a system which has (about) 10 parts. Today should see surface based convection from late morning. Sounds this arvo in central and northcentral are about as good as they every get for wet storms - e.g., this mid arvo sounding from near Coldstream http://soundings.bsch.com.au/skew-t.htm ... c&type=aus" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[Hawker]

Yes Strato It Looks a bit that way. I thought that I had just missed out,
Redesdale had 13mm. It must have been just up the road for you.
I don't want anything too dramatic, NO hail, just a big wet.
Perhaps it will re-develop in the arvo.
Cheers Chris

[Skywalker]

Decided to ride into work this morning. I guess that's an indication of how confident I am of receiving anything out this way today.

[stevco123]

Good Morning all.

I was really expecting to wake up to rain this morning. But looking logically (at this stage), it looks to be another "nothing to see here" day.

Ofcourse, things look like they may change. Touch and go on who gets how much rain.

[Gordon]

Blimey - Mangalore has just had 60 mm in an hour!

[nafets]

Was just about to say Gordon... 68mm in as many minutes! Something I'd expect in FNQ at this time of year. Off to Cairns, jealous about missing this weeks weather!

[Macedonian]

Is there going to be any proper widespread rain over the next few days or is it all going to be storm activity where it's very hit and miss?
That's amazing for Mangalore.68mm!

[StratoBendigo]

Is there going to be any proper widespread rain over the next few days or is it all going to be storm activity where it's very hit and miss?
That's amazing for Mangalore.68mm!

Hogging all the rain we would love. They also had 48mm earlier this month when we got only 8mm.

It simply doesn't feel like it wants to rain here today. Low deck of cloud, clear above that, and we're in a dead zone for LI later today. As for the next few days, the positioning of any Low will be crucial.

Yeah, sounding negative but everything has missed us this summer and it doesn't look like changing anytime soon.