Vic: Trough then cut-off low: Last week of January 2016

[StratoBendigo]

00Z GFS looks much more realistic. It'll be real interesting to see what EC prognosticates.

Regardless, our lawns are looking very sad.

[Wilko]

Looking like quite the event
Bom 4 day Synoptic looks really good and I think hints at the Low retrograding
to the west around Friday

[Dane]

BOM are being really conservative at the moment going for 6 to 22mm's.

[Hawker]

Hi Wilko
And then after that the chart shows the low/trough moving inland,
and staying cut off. Maybe it will bring something else after Friday.
Chris

[Wilko]

Yeah there is also a whopping big low that Bombs south of WA afterwards
Too many variables and i'm sure the Bureau do not want to
commit at this stage
Expecting BOM to be more precise this time tomorrow

[WeatherViewer]

BOM going for 19c in Melbourne on Friday. Pretty chilly for this time of year. But yes bring on the rain I say.

[Skywalker]

We have been blanketed in smoke from the Tasmanian fires down here in Phillip Island this afternoon. Those guys down there certainly need a major rain event asap.

[Dane]

Got that smoke haze too skywalker - can smell the smoke too.

[Didjman]

Getting it up here too. My wife asked me if there was a local fire.
Peter

[Rivergirl]

The smoke reached The Dandenongs this arvo

[hillybilly]

Mild humid morning up here. Almost autumnal. No fog. Picked-up another 0.4mm yesterday here so event on 1.2mm

Models looking very positive. The average across the models is around 40mm for the city and 70mm here. There are models above and below that, but that kinda sets the middle of the likely outcome. Also, latest models showing some excellent rain into northern Tasmania - e.g., EC 12 hour forecast around Saturday night below.

Today we should see the first showers and storms creeping west into Vic. Thinking we could well get the odd one in the outer Yarra Valley. Probably and outside chance here, but pretty unlikely IMHO (but hope to be proved wrong ).

Still smokey here from Tas, but seems to have cleared a bit. Viz yesterday evening was shocking with mist and smoke,

[Tassiedave]

Wow this mornings models especially GFS really ramp things for us here in Tassie!! Maybe up to 150 mm on the East Coast this week

[Rivergirl]

Would be great to get some more rain hillybilly. Looking forward to it. Tassiedave that would be awesome if you got a lot of rain, things have been tough down there. I hope it covers the west coast as well

[I_Love_Storms]

EC has 250mm for North East Tasmania over the next 10 days

[Gordon]

Just back from 6 days in the Snowys to find 27 mm has fallen here; mainly from last week but a bit of drizzle for the new dates. Amazing how there's a tinge of green everywhere - combination of rain, high humidity and mild temps I suppose.

Snapped this pic of a storm near Bredbo as I flew out yesterday evening - it had a black core on the radar:

[Wilko]

What a beautiful day and what a beautiful forecast
All Models in agreement for 50mm or so
The Weatherzone News mentions possible 50-80 in some spots with Tstorms

[occluded]

OCF showing 36mm here for the next few days. Hopefully I haven't jinxed it by cleaning out the gutters

[Onetahuti]

The BOM have upped their rainfall forecasts for here to the range of 22 mm-80 mm between tomorrow and Sunday. Wonder if there will be any alterations to this either up or down in the next day or so.

[Tassiedave]

Holy Moly the BOM forecast for northern and eastern Tassie is unreal, I haven't seen such predictions for a long time. Check out the St Helens forecast http://www.bom.gov.au/tas/forecasts/sthelens.shtml" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; - Friday forecast states "falls over 130 mm possible"

[Onetahuti]

Holy Moly the BOM forecast for northern and eastern Tassie is unreal, I haven't seen such predictions for a long time. Check out the St Helens forecast http://www.bom.gov.au/tas/forecasts/sthelens.shtml" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; - Friday forecast states "falls over 130 mm possible"

That sort of rainfall alone without the other days if it eventuates will lead to major flooding.