Vic: Trough then cut-off low: Last week of January 2016

[hillybilly]

A thread for the new event. Currently GFS, ACCESS and EC are showing a big event. Trough deepening around Tuesday, forming a complex low for later in the week. The whole system is very slow moving.

Hoping this one holds and share the rain around.

Thinking that a feature of this system will be the humidity and showers/rain/storms over quite a few days. The humidity from the current event isn't going far and will quickly reappear with the next one.

[Dane]

14.7mm's here over the last 4 days brings my MTD to 19.1mm's.
Thanks for that update DJ - hope that system for next week hold up.
Something to keep an eye on.

[Tassiedave]

Getting desperate now in Tassie. In Launceston no rain (0 mm) for 8 days now and only 7.8 mm in January so far. 70 fires burning throughout the state and now Launceston is on water restrictions for the first time in twenty years. Next week is looking promising and we really need it to deliver.

[Wilko]

I haven't seen this set up for loong time !
Based on recent events probably get 1-2mm ha ha
Hope to hell it holds as we desperately need the rain
Unlike some I thought the latest rain was a good event as western vic did well in some parts
Now for a good follow up
Would be rapt for 15-20mm
Potential for 4 times that..watching will real interest as the combination develops

[hillybilly]

I haven't seen this set up for loong time

LOL, and just like that it has changed. Thankfully, still got good totals. EC and GFS both got 70mm here. First few days look a bit better to me, but after that it's hard to read as the low is further east.

Am thinking I'll be happy with 20-30mm. Anything more than that will be a bonus. We've had ~20mm in the past week, and 20mm the week before so stringing a few totals together.

[I_Love_Storms]

Main thing is is that things are happening in the models and there is moisture and humidity around giving us a good shot at some big systems, whether they come off or not. Probabilities a lot better than last couple of January's for a huge deluge. Need some luck. Will be a very interesting week of model watching. Potentially two lows forming in nsw and off the coast of East vic. It has the potential to be something like the feb 2005 event, but all stars would need to align for this to happen. I am guessing we will see the potential for big falls Thursday-sunday but anything could happen

[Wilko]

Absolutely
Truck loads of moisture with possible cold front trigger
I love these systems as great learning experience and makes life interesting for us novices
Many of models seem to be shifting slightly to east but the high from west is in no hurry so hopefully the low will retrograde to west

[I_Love_Storms]

Latest runs look great. 100mm on ec and cmc widespread

[Geoff]

Latest runs look great. 100mm on ec and cmc widespread

Yep, some staggering totals being forecast, let's be cautious and divide them by 30%-50%, and hope for the best.
100mm in a week's time would pretty much bring an early end to the bushfire season up here, even with minimal follow up rains.
Off topic, I've had to delete my shortcut to the YR Norwegian site, as it was making my laptop crash every time I clicked on it, has anyone else had problems with it lately? It used to be trouble free.

[I_Love_Storms]

No issues with it here. I've just started to use both this website plus the beta.yr.no site which I think may use the upgraded EC. They seem to usually be quite similar but can differ a bit sometimes.

[Sean]

I have about as much faith in this system happening as I do about a peace treaty between Israel and Hezbollah. BUT, so long as the BOM ignores it, maybe something will eventuate. I'm not a superstitious man, but they're a jinx.

Lawn report: no more dead grass, it's just dirt now. Want to waterproof your iPhone? Roll it around on my front yard and it'll be hydrophobic within seconds.

[Geoff]

I've just started to use both this website plus the beta.yr.no site which I think may use the upgraded EC

Thanks ILS, I've not used the beta YR site before and it seems to be working fine for me, fingers crossed!
Oh, and Sean I had a quick look at their forecast for you and they're going for around 100mm for you too, perhaps you are going to be pleasantly surprised in a week's time!

[I_Love_Storms]

The BOM never call big systems more than a few days out, always go for a shower or two and a very vague rainfall range. Should get a better idea from the bom by tomorrow or Tuesday

[Sean]

I wish this cloud would dissipate. I want to see the planets while they're still aligned.

[hillybilly]

Progs holding for the event. Most have somewhere between 25 and 75mm. I'd discount the big totals - sure they could happen but they'd require everything together.

Thinking 20 to 40mm here. Will be happy with that. Anything above that range will be a bonus.

Guess since it's the new week I can count today's 1mm of drizzle as the start of the event We got into a Western Port Bay stream this morning. Doesn't happen too often, and never as strong as the Port Phillip Bay streams

Unusually humid. We had spitty drizzle all day yesterday with a DP in the teens. Never enough to wet the ground. Similar humidity this morning.

A photo from this morning, looking east in FC.

[StratoBendigo]

So, will we finally have some decent rain in Bendigo this week???

Still too much divergence in the forecast models for my liking, with EC suggesting only 5mm in Round One, and 11mm in Round Two with a fairly significant cold outbreak for this time of year. Other models suggest around double that amount.

Edit - 18Z GFS is totally unrealistic IMO. I cannot for the life of me see 60mm falling here in the coming week.

[Macedonian]

I picked up almost 3mm of mountain drizzle last night.
Very happy to have a few damp cool days.

[Jake Smethurst]

A very dynamic weather situation developing, and models continuing to dissolve the outcome in a number of ways. EC looks to be one of the worser scenarios for us, with the least rainfall, however ACCESS-G and GFS/US continue to be the best. Others like CMC are okay. I am at least positive that GFS and ACCESS have been generally consistent with the spatial extent of the rainfall (rather than totals) for us here in Victoria. I notice EC has been shifting both variables quite a bit. We are still quite a number of days out though, and as we've seen in the past, downgrades are entirely possible, but hopefully not.

At the moment, it appears a trough will extend across the state from the east and deepen on Wednesday, resulting in showers or rain and isolated thunderstorms. The trough is then likely to move eastwards on Thursday as a low pressure system develops somewhere near Tasmania later. The question of where this low develops will mark the difference between seeing a few showers during Thursday or some more substantial falls in the south, particularly at night. It's then a question of whether the low will retrograde into the western half of Bass Strait, as this mornings GFS and ACCESS show, meaning Friday into Saturday could have some healthy falls, particularly about southern parts. Sunday's likely to be the clearing day with the low contracting east ahead of the next system.

These events generally always come down to the positioning of the low pressure system in question. Can be the difference between 5mm and 50mm. Models generally consistent with falls between 25-50mm in some spots. Will have to wait and see. Moisture won't be a problem.

Another thing just to briefly mention is the winds. Things could get a little blustery about some areas if we're dealing with a cut-off, which seems more and more likely.

Fingers crossed

[StratoBendigo]

Just a bit of a tangent - some cold weather and snowfall records are being smashed in East Asia at present: http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-35395780" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Some standouts:
- First snow in Guangzhou since 1929.
- First snow on Amami Island in 115 years.

Also significant snowfalls in Taiwan too.

This is good news for us IMO. Tends to push the monsoon trough Southwards....

[I_Love_Storms]

BOM rainfall chart has 50-100mm for east central over next 7 days