Victoria: Showers and storms: Jan 19-24 2016

[Jake Smethurst]

Potential for a decent drop with a significant front/trought around Tuesday, followed by a period of unstable troughy weather for a few days. Exact sequence is a bit up in the air - all models have a front with rainband late Tuesday or early Wednesday, but then split between a sequence of SW'ly fronts (GFS/ACCESS) or a slow moving trough (EC). Looks to be rather cooler than the past week - but of warmth Mon/Tues but overall uppers which are 10C or so cooler than what we've just seen. Of course, could change.

Bit of wind potential on Tuesday which could create a few problems

Hoping this one delivers and shares it around.

[Wilko]

Yes looks very promising next week
EC has 40mm here and GFS also looks good
Pretty optimistic about this system hope there are no downgrades

[Tassiedave]

Seems to be a mismatch between some of the models and the BOM Melbourne forecast for Wednesday/Thursday/Friday, they talk in terms of a "Shower or Two" or "Possible Shower"

[Geoff]

Ended up with 15mm from that system, if only we could get that once a week there'd be no problems.
Really smokey smell in the air up here today, presumably from the fire in N/W Tassie blowing across.
Hoping this last system suddenly delivering at the last minute is a sign that the tide is beginning to turn towards more productive systems to come, though EC (YR) has completely lost interest with only 1mm on Wednesday and nothing more. Access and GFS much more bullish.

[Jake Smethurst]

Not going to speculate about the upcoming event except to say there's already been downgrades in the models, especially EC. Lets hope we get a lovely surprise.

[nafets]

EC gone from 30mm to 0mm here ...

[hillybilly]

EC gone from 30mm to 0mm here...

Models split between two scenarios.

EC and ACCESS has the front missing the low over SW WA and we get a weak trough scenario. This gives us dribbles with more in the north. Good thing is we acoid any particular heat.

GFS, UK, JMA and ACCESS-APS2 (the new ACCESS) has the front capturing the low which gives us a hot windy day Tuesday with a rainband to follow. The rain band holds ~10-30mm.

Take a pick... clearly this one's finely balanced between the two. I couldn't pick between the two... though the weight of the models would suggest the second.

Thinking we'll see a couple more model jumps to come - which ones jump where is anyones guess.

[Geoff]

GFS has upped totals considerably this evening, 25mm-75mm across large parts of Vic. Still waiting for the others to update. Really going to need this one after Monday/Tuesday's heat and wind.

[Tassiedave]

GFS has a similar outlook for northern Tas too Geoff yet the BOM gives us just a 30% chance of rain with 0.2 mm on Wednesday!! I notice forecasts for Melbourne and Victoria in general don't mention high rainfall either!!??

[Luken]

BOM sure had a change of heart today. Is it that the models aren't coping with strong El-Nino conditions?

[Gordon]

Hmmm... latest ACCESS likes Wednesday:


and so does the latest GFS:


Only EC doesn't seem as keen (can't post an image for that one).

So two out of three models I can see say 'Yes', but evidently more of them that I can't see must be saying 'No'?

[hillybilly]

Models have converged to 10-30mm for the week. Across EC, GFS, ACCESS, ACCESS-APS2, and JMA they all show ~20 to 30mm for FC, with APS2 the wet outlier with more than 40mm. Other areas better or worse, depending on which model you look at.

Looks a bit hit miss Wed/Thur and more general on Friday. It's a broad slow moving trough with the upper trough sat way back of WA slowly moving over us - it doesn't come through until Friday. Looks quite thundery.

Thinking heaps of frustation ahead for the week, hopefully ending with decent falls

Two warm/hot days - Mon and Tues. There is a weak change near us on both days so shouldn't be too hot for too long in the south.

BTW watch SW WA. Not common for them to get a major low in January with an associated well developed upper low. Could be big falls in spots. Hopefully it falls on the parched forests.

[Geoff]

It is usually the case that rainfall is increased if the tropical moisture from the north makes a connection with an approaching front from the west. While I've read that there is some doubt if this will happen this time, it looks to me from the current BOM satellite image that the connection has already been made over WA, with an "umbilical" of cloud linking the two systems.
http://www.bom.gov.au/products/national_radar_sat.shtml" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
It would seem those models predicting higher rainfall totals have already modeled in this scenario, and it's curious to me that the official BOM forecast is only going for 2mm on Wednesday and nothing more.
I would expect at least 20mm here from this set up and quite possibly far more, here's hoping!

[Dane]

Geoff the BOM generally er on the side of caution with these events especially considering the number of times the models have downgraded close to the event recently.
It will be interesting to see their forecasts over the coming days.
Certainly really need some good rain soon. Both 2014 and 2015 were below average rainfall wise and so far this month only 4.4mm's here.
Keeping my eyes on the upcoming system and hoping it doesn't fall apart like most of the others.
Last decent system was Boxing day but even with that rain December finished below average.

[hillybilly]

Models have decided to go their seperate ways again. Pretty frustrating.

EC has ~60mm here while, JMA, ACCESS, GFS all have more like 10mm. A day back the order was the other way. Two parts to the system - a weak rainband possible on Wednesday (GFS and ACCESS most keen) then a second trough/rainband on Friday (EC and UK most keen). Pretty frustrating - this one could set us up for the rest of summer if EC is correct. Otherwise, we'll limp along from dribble to dribble.

Thankfully not much heat in the outlook beyond today and tomorrows warm/hot temps.

[flyfisher]

I am watering my black wattle trees to try and keep them alive. I think the borers are moving in on the stressed trees. Ferns are fried too, but they usually jump back.

Really need some rain soon. Still see trout in the creek despite the low water levels.

[Australis(Shell3155)]

Took a drive out to Arthers Creek yesterday,
Different part of the world having never been there before,
Now that's Dry..

[Wilko]

Wind change is through Geelong
and marching across the bay

[Dane]

Can see the smoke from that Crib point fire from here.

[stevco123]

Can see the smoke from that Crib point fire from here.

Yeah... very strong smell now that the wind has turned to the south. If you think About it Dane, that fire ain't that far from cranbourne. Less than 20km line of sight.

But i reckon we're pretty safe here. Lucky the wind isn't that bad like last week.