Wilko, my parents also live close to that area, and they've mentioned it's definitely one of the drier years they've experienced in a while, alas they said they're also concerned about fires this year, more grass than forest given their position. However, the Otways are always a high risk over Summer due to the vegetation growth in the actual national parks ... it's that thick some years the CFA and DELWP have trouble getting in. Given what my parents have said, and David of course, Otways would be very dry already.
Models are wavering a little with the rainfall with the upcoming system as has been mentioned. I honestly think GFS and ACCESS will downgrade a bit further before Sunday, and will meet EC somewhere in the middle. Change timing is the key as to if we see a scorcher Sunday or escape most of the heat. Models are struggling at determining the exact timing - was later, then went in earlier, now seems to be early-to-mid afternoon for Central parts. Will have to wait and see as we get closer.
What is certain is that fire danger is likely to be quite high on Saturday (and tomorrow). I notice an "extreme" rating for the Southwest Saturday with "severe" generally elsewhere, but wouldn't be surprised to see "extreme" upgraded to other districts given the wind conditions. A TFB issued already for Saturday across the entire state and across the Southwest, Wimmera, North Central and Central districts for tomorrow. Sunday may see further TFB's.
Looking a little further out, the heat really doesn't go that far, not flushed out at all. Warming back up for Christmas Eve with temps likely in the 30's, and then appears to be a change day on Christmas Day. ACCESS has another relatively hot to very hot day before a late change, but GFS moves things through quicker.
My two cents worth
The last time we had a cool summer was 2001/2002..
