More Spring Rain in Victoria?: 2nd week of November

[Australis(Shell3155)]

yes to above..

[Australis(Shell3155)]

Least no one is whinging that we didnt get that storm or the 50mm I was counting on..

[Geoff]

Least no one is whinging that we didnt get that storm or the 50mm I was counting on..

Nope, got a full day's gardening in Shell, which I wasn't expecting to when I left home this morning.
More likely to get showers here tomorrow with the cooler air to be honest.
I don't see why it can't just rain overnight and be fine during daytime, that'd be a win win situation!

[Tassiedave]

Good falls in the East and South East of Tassie today. 85mm at Gray, 51 mm at St Helens, 35 mm at Friendly Beaches and 16 mm in Hobart.

[Gordon]

That is great news Tassiedave, long overdue!

[hillybilly]

Well that was disappointing. Zilch. Thinking a mm or two of drizzle here tomorrow so won't be a complete bust but pretty close. Same on Saturday.

Good falls out east but patchy elsewhere. Fantastic falls in Tasmania... Relief for them I'm guessing, though the usually wet west continues dry.

Next week is all over the shop. EC keeps on jumping. Looks hot up north for a couple of days, and perhaps a day or two in the south. Maybe some rain... Or not.

[Geoff]

As expected, drizzly showers here with the cooler air this morning, might scrape a couple of mm.
Goodness only knows what next week will produce, with some bizarre synoptics thrown up by the models, with a large high waaay up near Townsville, and lows skirting along the Bight???

[hillybilly]

1.5mm of drizzly stuff in FC this morning. Was a very foggy night from about 7:30pm onwards - it went from clear to fog in a couple of minutes at our place.

Hoping to pick up a bit more before it all clear PM Saturday.

Some extreme heat showing up next week. Unclear how far south this will make it, but thinking we've gotta be a real chance for a 40C+ in northwest Vic and into the low/mid 30s in southern Vic. 850T jump to over 28C in inland parts of SA

[Alexia]

Best rain in a long time 37mm in the last 24hrs 61.5mm for the month. Country here looks really good.

[Australis(Shell3155)]

the conclusion...
They dont know.
You guys / gals cant be expected to know if they dont know.
Even looking at the sky has got me confused - seeing nothing but hearing it was proof yesterday.
head still wobbling..

[hillybilly]

1.4mm in the guage this morning from yesterdays drizzle, so almost 7mm for the event A little back door front today may bring another mm or two before it clears.

System another bust, but good for eastern Vic, eastern Tas and eastern NSW so at least it got shared around.

You guys / gals cant be expected to know if they dont know.

Yes and no. People expect the answer that's not possible - how much rain will I get at my spot, will I get a storm, will it hail (etc). That's not really possible, because to know what you'll get in the future you have to know 100% what the weather is now (everywhere on the planet). We can't ever know all the details, and this lack of detail (initialisation errors) at the start grows to become the forecast error (that's the principle of chaos). Sometimes the errors at the start don't matter - if you've got a high 4000km across the detail is bascially the same everywhere and things move so slowly that the error hardly grows at all. There are other things going on - even the best model isn't perfect

The range in the various model forecasts basically tells you the forecast confidence (and how much the details matter). You could see this on Thursday with the models ranging from (about) 0mm in some parts of Melbourne to more than 20mm.

From this perspective, when the forecasts models aren't spot on it tells you the situation is complicated and uncertain and the initial details matter. When they all hit the mark it tells you the situation is straight-forwrad and the details hardly matter.

[hillybilly]

Got a couple of light showers yesterday but nothing measurable. Back to summer now