Vic: Showers and windy - July 22 to 29

[Macedonian]

Just had another really good fall over the last hour.
About 2cm on the ground now. Very very pretty!

[droughtbreaker]

Just had a short period of solid sleet here with visible snowflakes. I'm at only 520m here so snow is certainly reaching the ground at fairl ylow levels. Temp got down to 3C here at the coldest point in the shower. I could imagine settled snow down to about 700m in Mt Macedon and also at Trentham.

[Macedonian]

Still coming down now but the sun is out as well.
So
Lovely out in the garden

[hillybilly]

Had four snow showers here now. Just brief each time, and alternating between graupel, hail, sleet and snow. Hovering around 3 to 4C. DP is about zero which is why we are getting snow a degree or two warmer than normal.

Cold night coming up.

[hillybilly]

Cracker of a shower through here. Mostly hail and graupel this time. Garden turned white for a while.

[Macedonian]

Nice pics Hilly Billy

It's still snowing here. Down to -0.3C now

[BringOnTheCoolChange]

Nice pics hillbilly, pretty exciting day here today, didn't expect to see snow here, but we got a quick snow shower here, followed by about 4 hail showers or so.

[hillybilly]

Nice pics hillbilly, pretty exciting day here today, didn't expect to see snow here, but we got a quick snow shower here, followed by about 4 hail showers or so.

That's great you got one. We got (about) 5 in the end. Couple of times quite heavy but only short lived. Cold day... max of just 5.6C for us and in the 3 to 4C most of the day

Got a video of the best of the (graupel) showers I'll try to post later.

Despite all the excitment, only 2.4mm more rain. Think that puts the event just shy of 20mm. Should get a bit more today.

Next front to sneak through on Thursday (coming under the incoming high). EC is showing this could be quite productive rain wise in the south.

[Macedonian]

We still had a good cover of snow this morning. It was snowing again when I went to bed at about 11pm.

I was surprised to see that my place was the only one with any snow over this morning as I drive down the mountain to work. I could see a little on some rooftops until right on. 800m then nothing at all below that elevation.
There must have been plenty up on the top if the mountain because i could here all the hooligans doing burn outs up there through the night.

Our temp range yesterday was -0.8C to 2.8C

[StratoBendigo]

14mm for us in this event(s) and we've more or less hit our July monthly average rainfall.

We're looking to be on track to our coldest July for maximum daily temps since 2008 (11.7), and possibly 2004 (11.6) or even 1998 (11.4).

[hillybilly]

Think fog and drizzle up here this morning with a classic warm air advection under and subsidence inversion scenario (this really squeeze the drizzle). 7mm in the gauge and event closing in on 26mm. MTD is a very good 125mm (so nearly 20mm above average). We've been the centre of the action this month (with east central areas scoring about the best of the rain).

Should get another 10 to 20mm on Thursday so will be a fantastic month for us (particularly given we've got the strongest El Nino since 1997!).



BTW here's a photo and video of the graupel mixed with snow late on Sunday arvo. This one was a cracker. You can see in the background the precip coming in waves.


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[stevco123]

Was anyone else just watching ch7 weather? I didn't quite hear what jane bunn said due to background noise but did she say sea level snow next Monday possible and a top of 10 for cbd?????

[BringOnTheCoolChange]

Jane Bunn predicting snow levels down to 200m on Monday I hope it comes a day earlier so i can spend the whole day out in the snow, this will see snow down to Belgrave, Tecoma, Upwey, and maybe even hilly parts of Upper Ferntree Gully, possibly parts of The Basin too.

[hillybilly]

Long way out to make such a call. Ec has 850T below -4C so definitely cold, but seen that before and then downgrade. I'm thinking a good chance here, but won't get exited til Sunday night

One thing going for the event is the huge high South of WA. Models usually handle highs well and this is what delivers the cold.

[Tassiedave]

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Loving the look of next Monday here in Tassie and Victoria. If the models hold up there could be snow to very low levels.

[droughtbreaker]

It's looking very shaky going by the latest model outputs. Both EC and ACCESS are now showing the inland low decaying before it can meet up with the incoming LWT over VIC. This low was the main mechanism that was leading to the major cold outbreak and precip (GFS is still showing this scenario), as it has the effect of amplifying the LWT over us.

When I see EC and other models jump off and GFS hang on I know it's only a matter of a few runs if that before GFS jumps off as well.

There is still some very cold air in the EC output for Monday but the precipitation is way down as it is a much weaker setup.

[Tassiedave]

Hi Droughtbreaker. Acknowledging of course that this is a Victorian thread but is there enough moisture for us to get low level snow in Tassie? Many years ago people were on skis travelling over the Tasman bridge when snow fell in the Hobart CBD.

[BringOnTheCoolChange]

With the current weather forecast, skiing to work is looking like a posibility next Tuesday. xD

I have never ever seen a winter this cold in my 12 years of living in Victoria, i have seen nothing like it in my time living in Brisbane, Qld and Stirling North, South Australia. It's good.

@Tassiedave i think it's looking like a possibility for Hobart to receive some overnight snow next week, and it's also looking possible for places like Scoresby and Werribee to be getting early morning snow on Tuesday, if the humidity is right.

[stevco123]

I REALLY hope the scenario at play currently for next Monday/tuesday holds. If it comes out to be true then we most definitely looking at snowfalls down to sea level.

Unfortunately I don't want to get too excited as downgrades are more likely than not, so I'm just going to go for a forecast of 11 degrees and a shower or two. (Now let's see what happens)

[hillybilly]

ACCESS and EC winding back a lot on tonights model runs. Not surprised... snow to sea level happens a lot less in the real world than model land. There's a good reason for this - every model run will wiggle up/down from what eventually happens. When one looks a week ahead that gives you about 14 (twice a day) looks at a cold day across 4 models. People latch onto the spectacular ones and forget all the boring ones.

Still hopeful that it might come back somewhat. Current progs look 50:50 for snow in Ferny Creek.

Time for the new thread. "Another week of cold/windy/showery conditions!"