Vic: Windy with showers. Last week of May/Start to June

[hillybilly]

Thread for the coming week with a quick sequence of fronts. These mainly run through Bass Strait just clipping Vic but may be a stronger system on Sunday.

Thinking coastal areas into the ranges should do ok. Northern areas away from the slopes likely to struggle so again so not really a state wide rain producer.

EC is pretty excited for here. About 30 maybe 40mm with sleet/snow into Monday morning. Access and GFS not so keen. So may change.

[Rivergirl]

sleet/snow would be good

[hillybilly]

Kicked off the sequence with 0.4mm this morning. Now sitting in the mild sunny skies behind the front - Avalon's popped up to 21C

[hillybilly]

Latest EC is even colder. Meteogram is showing max's of 5, 4 and 5C for Mt Dandenong (or there abouts) on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday with frequent showers

Next front tomorrow arvo looks to be worth 5mm or a little more.

[Macedonian]

Yr.no have got us down for a. -2min on Monday with a max of 2C
Tues 0 to 3
Wed. -1 to 3
So a bit of winter weather on the way!
I have been checking in with Yr.no a lot laty and they have been pretty close to the mark for mt Macedon.
As far as temps go anyway, rainfall always seems over estimated.

[StratoBendigo]

Very foggy morning in Bendigo. But now clearing. Probably our last day above 15c for quite a while when looking at the forecast ahead into next week.

As for EC overestimating rainfall - it really stuffed up this week.

[hillybilly]

Yr.no have got us down for a. -2min on Monday with a max of 2C

Down to around 1C here with showers Monday AM. Meteogram has sleet for our elevation (which usually means snow). 850T in the EC and GFS are dropping in the -4 to -5C range which usually means snow here Progs are starting to up the rainfall so could be quite productive (EC has about 20mm for the Sunday/Monday front and ~5mm tonight). Fingers are crossed that we get some decent snow after so many near misses or light covers.

Decent little front zipping across currently with the odd storm. Quite a bit of shear so storms have potential to be severe - been signs of rotation in some inthe northeast this arvo. Quite a few 10-20mm falls in the northeast, with the storms, with mostly 3-10mm in the southewest on the front.

[Macedonian]

Yr.no have got te snow symbol for us on Sunday evening and again on Thursday. They are predicting a very cold week for Mt Macedon. Five days with Max's less than 5C
That is late July weather! Hope it rains a bit. It's too dry here for winter.
http://m.yr.no/place/Australia/Victoria ... /long.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[BringOnTheCoolChange]

Jeez Tasmania are lucky, snow falling down to 200 metres on Sunday and Monday, Hobart with a minimum of 3c and a top of 8c on Monday, if only Victoria was that little bit more South. Snow down to 700m on Sunday and 500m - 700m around Victoria on Monday depending on where you are, it's gonna be a nice cold day.

[hillybilly]

Not much excitement for us with this system. 0.4mm overnight to add to the 0.4mm the day before.

Chilly today but not that unusual with a max of 9.4C.

Sunday night/Monday am is when the system gets cranking. Latest models all show 850T dipping to around -4C which usually means snow flurries for us. The progs have plenty of showers so moisture shouldn't be an issue. I'd like to see the number cool a little bit as they are pretty marginal for settling snow - will depend on whether showers are heavy enough.

Front on Sunday should be quite dramatic though pretty moisture starved as the tropical cloud stays to our north. Other thing to watch is for some cold mornings in the new week. Highs comes in quickly over the cold air so going to be icy Monday and Tuesday nights.

[BringOnTheCoolChange]

Snow is looking possible on Thursday too, with a minimum of 1c and possible showers.

[hillybilly]

Not exactly a big rain producer (this one). Another 0.2mm of rain the gauge bringing the event total to 1mm

Should get cranking today, but overall the system is moisture starved with the cold air seperated from any infeed. EC and GFS have about 15mm here which would be a welcome start to June. After a cracking start, May has finished on a dry note for most of Vic.

Snow certainly has my interest. 850T across the models drop to about -4C overnight which is around the cut-off for snow here. Looks to be quite shower at the time, and low levels are reasonable dry which helps snow falling below the freezing level (which will drop to about 950m). Expecting we'll get the usual mix - a bit of sleet, graupel and probably the odd flurry here. System is a little marginal temperature rise to be substantial, but it does come down to luck (whether you get under a good band of showers at the right time). Fingers are crossed.

Shame about the timing for the front today (late arvo). Would be a pretty spectacular system to watch come through the alps as temperatures drop by about 6C and the snow levels drop by ~800m or so across the front. Would be fun watching it come through Donna Buang and going from heavy rain to heavy snow

[Macedonian]

Persistent light rain here overnight and still raining now. Calm with thick mist and the temp hasn't budged for hours.
5C now and set to lower as the day progresses.

[Rivergirl]

Well here's hoping

[Dane]

Getting some showers now and temp is falling was 15.3c here at 12.55pm now its 11.4c. 1.2mm's so far hope we get a bit more had less than 1mm in the last 10 days of May to finish on 53.9mm's below the average of 58.4mm's. YTD 243mm's (ave to end of May is 271mm's) so long odds on to finish below average this year with the BOM predicting a drier and warmer Winter than normal.

[Geoff]

Started with light drizzly showers this morning, but each shower is getting progressively heavier now.
137mm for May here, so about average, and 444mm YTD.

[hillybilly]

Max'd out at 9.4C here today and dropping now. Good day to stay inside... though frustratingly we've got no power due to line works

Had about 2mm of rain - looked heavy a few times, but over quite quickly.

Looks like the front is now coming into view on the radar on the coast SW of Melbourne. Hoping for a cracker : Latest progs seem to be a tiny bit colder - GFS drops 850T to about -4.5C. ACCESS is similar. Those numbers are cold enough for snow about the tops of the Dandenongs assuming we get showers. The cold air doesn't stay with us for long - by mid morning it'll be too warm for snow here so only a 6 to 12 hour window.

May total ends on ~149mm here which is a bit above average (about 10mm or there abouts). We've been pretty lucky locally. YTD is about 50mm below average so tracking OK considering the El Nino (so far).

[Macedonian]

Raining all day here and really quite heavy over the last hour or so.
We reached our forecast top temp of 7C (for a nano-second) around 1.30pm and it's been slowly lowering since then.
Good day for indoor stuff . It's great to get the rain and I'm looking forward to the colder air arriving later this evening.

[Macedonian]

I like this forecast for the rest of today!
http://m.yr.no/place/Australia/Victoria ... n~2159230/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[Rivergirl]

Snowing in Huonville Tassie