Hot and thundery - Tropical moisture feed - Jan 4 to 14 2015

[I_Love_Storms]

Very interesting and dynamic event. I was thinking tomorrow wouldn't have as much as today, but latest BOM forecast seems to be that tomorrow will be a big rain day for parts of the state. Most likely factoring in the substantial rain and storms hovering over SA.

[stevco123]

GFS has downgraded heaps for Melbourne latest run... 10-25mm

??????

[I_Love_Storms]

Not sure how this is going to play out. Was expecting more by now, but just copping a light sprinkle.

Stayed relatively cool today, which I knew was bound to happen when waking up to that overcast sky. Not sure that's ideal when it comes to storms.

Hoping, anyway.

Shouldn't really matter re clouds and heat (25 or so is fine with high humidity) once the trough gets close enough it should start ramping up. PS GFS did that last night as well...more worrying now because it is closer to the event, but I definitely wouldn't write it off, as it went from 25 last night back to 75-100 this morning

[Dane]

Too much cloud in southern and western areas to allow good convection.
Most of the storms are firing in the east and far north where there has been less cloud.
Don't expect any storms today for my area just some light rain

[stevco123]

Too much cloud in southern and western areas to allow good convection.
Most of the storms are firing in the east and far north where there has been less cloud.
Don't expect any storms today for my area just some light rain

yeh looks like it. quite dissapointed actually. all this hype for nothing (so far). I suppose inland needs it more than us anyway

[Sean]

Didn't think today would amount to much upon waking up. Honestly, I can't recall a stormy day that starts off cloudy and stays that way.

Besides, when storms are forceasted, they don't generally happen. It's usually a spontaneous event. Luckily I happened to be directly under the storm that hit the city yesterday. They sky was blue, then dulled to grey and eventually black. Was almost surreal to watch it all collect above me.

Hopefully we get some decent rain, though. I'm sick to death of the dryness.

[I_Love_Storms]

Don't worry guys look at BOMs forecast, LOL if it is right we will make up for it over the next 4 days

[stevco123]

And the Bureau is onto it.

Now forecasting possible falls over 50mm for both Tomorrow and Saturday.

Funnily enough, their rainfall amount forecast on the left says 8-20mm.

[Skywalker]

Been a boring fizzer so far for my area, no storms yesterday or today and just patchy crap light showers. Would be nice to see something substantial happen here during the next 24-36 hours but definitely not getting my hopes up. I have so far refused to buy into the hype surrounding this event to date. Anyway fingers crossed.

[Gordon]

A lot more rain in the band approaching Melbourne from the west than the radar suggests - 6 mm in just a few minutes here. Really thick tropical stuff. Maybe the smallish rain drop size is giving a reduced return?

[adon]

Only a few spot here so far. The wind forecast has been dead wrong for here. We were supposed to have n/NW winds in the morning shifting SW later in the day where as we have been in fresh SW winds all day basically. Even dust lifting at times.

[wolfcat]

Melbourne Rain now: Friday:5-10mm; Saturday:1-5mm; Sunday:1-5mm

Hmmm... and I only got 1mm last night, still might need to water the garden after all.

[Australis(Shell3155)]

2 days to exceed 50mm here... No complaints
Another 6mm this morning Making 13mm to 9am.
Kid tipped out Guage today although don't think was much in it for the day tho, I believe very little.
Very humid and uncomfortable outside now.
Survived last night no problems as hadn't opened house up, just in case the humidity sets off smoke detectors..

[Tassiedave]

The trough/cold front has passed through Tassie. We had six hours of patchy rain until 4 this afternoon developing around 15mm. Now cloudy but cooler and less humid. We are watching with envy as all models have Tasmania just south of the action about to unfold with only a few showers here and there over the next three days. We were (including BOM) pinning our hopes on a LOW developing in the Bight on Monday giving us good falls on Monday/Tuesday. On the latest GFS that LOW doesn't exist. Where did it go? Is it likely to eventuate?

[stevco123]

Jane bunn on ch7 saying heaviest rain is likely to miss melbourne

[Jake Smethurst]

Forecasting these events are very tricky, especially when it comes to thunderstorms. Things were looking good on paper but then in the end there was just too much cloud to get anything going properly for central parts, and the trough moved through a little ahead of when I was expecting it too. But other areas of the state, the north and east in particular, are doing very well with scattered showers and storms, so not all areas have missed out thus far.

Still plenty more days ahead of us, and models still don't look that bad for rainfall.

[Australis(Shell3155)]

Still happy even if nothing much more eventuates out of it..
13mm and wet looking dry grass and ground...
But more appreciated. I do wish for the west to get slow steady soaking rain.. They do miss out a lot...

[Australis(Shell3155)]

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27.4 in last 3 hours. That's good rain.

[mick]

Keep an eye on what is moving up from the south and might get here around 2-3am.

[Sean]

Still happy even if nothing much more eventuates out of it..
13mm and wet looking dry grass and ground...
But more appreciated. I do wish for the west to get slow steady soaking rain.. They do miss out a lot...

Just their natural climate, I suppose. Same goes for melbourne city, east, south east, etc. If you live here, don't get too excited because you're only setting yourself up for disappointment. Weather fizzles out in the city as easily as it flares up. You're only ever guaranteed a storm if lighting is cracking right over your head.