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Vic: Unstable, cold air, possible storms - October 12 onward
- Geoff
- Supercell
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- Joined: Tue Jul 05, 2011 9:46 pm
- Location: Olinda VIC (470m ASL)
Re: Vic: Unstable, cold air, possible storms - October 12 on
Surprised (and delighted) to find another 13mm in the Nylex after this morning's front. The rain was heavy at times, and I thought I heard small hail once or twice. Brings this event total to 36mm. Looking forward to a drier spell now for a few days.
AWF Rainfall Details - Monthly rainfall stats. Please post your totals here at the end of each month, thank you –
http://www.theaustralianweatherforum.co ... &start=180
http://www.theaustralianweatherforum.co ... &start=180
- I_Love_Storms
- Supercell
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- Joined: Wed Dec 02, 2009 2:01 pm
- Location: Hawthorn
Re: Vic: Unstable, cold air, possible storms - October 12 on
Has been a pretty dry month overall for many areas. No massive rain events. Hopefully we get something soon normally this time of year has some of the most productive systems...
- droughtbreaker
- Supercell
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- Joined: Wed Nov 25, 2009 7:50 pm
- Location: Mount Macedon, VIC, 520m asl
Re: Vic: Unstable, cold air, possible storms - October 12 on
We have a full blown summer pattern atm. The westerly belt has almost disappeared off the chart. The inland of AUS has been mostly cloud free for weeks as a result and the heat buildup is starting to become very severe through the inland, almost record breaking I would think.
It's very concerning as we have seen this sort of pattern in the lead up to summer for the last three years and for several of the years in the 10 years prior to that. It is basically a change in pattern.
This contraction of the westerly belt and increasing dominance of high pressure across the board has been occurring for over 40 years now (Perth and SW WA was affected first) and is really starting to hit us hard now. It means that in non La Nina years, and especially years like this year with a borderline weak El Nino, our spring/summer periods are becoming increasingly hot and dry.
It is a little disturbing to say the least.
Hopefully the models are on the wrong track re rainfall and we get a decent statewide storm outbreak on Wednesday with high precipitation. Humidity and moisture levels seem high enough to me so I am a bit confused why rainfall progs are so low/absent.
It's very concerning as we have seen this sort of pattern in the lead up to summer for the last three years and for several of the years in the 10 years prior to that. It is basically a change in pattern.
This contraction of the westerly belt and increasing dominance of high pressure across the board has been occurring for over 40 years now (Perth and SW WA was affected first) and is really starting to hit us hard now. It means that in non La Nina years, and especially years like this year with a borderline weak El Nino, our spring/summer periods are becoming increasingly hot and dry.
It is a little disturbing to say the least.
Hopefully the models are on the wrong track re rainfall and we get a decent statewide storm outbreak on Wednesday with high precipitation. Humidity and moisture levels seem high enough to me so I am a bit confused why rainfall progs are so low/absent.