Vic: Unstable, cold air, possible storms - October 12 onward

[Geoff]

Small hail or graupel in this heavy stuff coming up, sounds icy whatever it is.

[BringOnTheCoolChange]

It has been sleeting here quite a bit down at the lower end of Ferny Creek, no white cover tho, the house we are living in is very closed in with lots of trees, and it is often cooler than Olinda and Mt Dandenong during summer, when the city was hitting 42c, it was 25c here at the start of this year. So it's quite pleasant to come back from work and get a nice cool breeze anytime of the year here.

[Wilko]

It looks like it's gonna hit me in Moorabbin
First time growing from that direction..EXCITING EH !
Doppler looks interesting

[I_Love_Storms]

Weather is awesome. Torrential rain in the Dandenongs. Changed topic heading haha how models change! Looks like a lot of rain on its way if it can push through. Most likely models right with initial band only but I've seen some freak events play out this time of year. GFS already way off with 1mm for East Central tonight lol

[Geoff]

Radar is filling in nicely behind this first heavy pulse, looks likely to be a wet night for many in Central and Eastern Vic.

[Wilko]

What the cause guys
Is it the wrap around from the main low ?

[Geoff]

What the cause guys
Is it the wrap around from the main low ?

It started off looking like that Wilko, but as the evening has progressed it's looking more and more like a new low has formed in its own right, and is moving into our area. Pouring down here for an hour or so now.

[Wilko]

Thanks that makes more sense
Just started and bursts of heavy rain And very squally

[droughtbreaker]

GFS and ACCESS have done really poorly so far, at least for here. I've recorded almost 11mm so far and it looks like there may be a fair bit more to come depending on how far west the rain band gets and if it keeps itself going overnight and doesn't fizzle.

EC has been right on to all this. It always had good rain for here today and also tomorrow, and it seems to be picking the current scenario as well with moderate rainfall predicted all night and most of tomorrow coming in from the east as we are seeing now. GFS has next to nothing in comparison.

If EC is correct we will see most of this rain sheer off from the main area over Gippsland and set in right over Melbourne and west central tonight before showers become confined to the coast and ranges (mostly west central in S/SE flow) tomorrow. EC also gung ho with Thursday's front with some of the showers extending into northern districts.

4C here atm but expect fractionally milder air to flood in with the SEs.

[nafets]

Always exciting when we hear reports of snow!! Nice band moving in now and it's pretty heavy, looks like it could rain for hours judging by the radar. Yeah hillbilly it's browning off around here a lot especially after yesterday, the grass along the maribrynong has gone yellow. Suspect this rain will help a lot though much needed!

[Blackie]

It's wild out there tonight. The bay is roaring and moderate rain has settled in here for the last hour or so.
Thanks for the interesting model analysis Andrew. Curious to see what the Snow accumulation at Mt BB will by morning. 9 c here currently.

B

[Skywalker]

Wow, I wasn't expecting this rain!

Perfect timing too, as I planted some new plants along my back fence yesterday.

[Gordon]

Well what an interesting system. 13 mm here to 9 am and exceptionally cold for rain-bearing conditions: 4 C for most of the night and only 5.5 C now. Looks like a little more to come today.

In the end the models way back at the start of this thread were right about this being a productive system, though not quite in the way they initially predicted!

[Dane]

12.8mm's in the last 24 hours giving me 18.8mm's for the System. MTD now 36.5mm's.
Down to 7.9c last night.

[occluded]

8.4mm from this system, better than expected in the end. Was interesting to watch the rain come in from the E-SE for a change. Lot colder than I expected too with the wind from the south / south-east.

[Geoff]

23mm in the gauge this morning, so a good drop and much needed, 45mm MTD. Keen breeze today and quite gusty at times, but dry and mostly sunny.

[Jake Smethurst]

Was fantastic to hear the rain on the roof last night, though was a tad windy and I could also hear the waves from the bay crashing down. Must have been a bit bumpy out there overnight! Looking quite warm potentially next week.

[stevco123]

down to 1.9 this morning here making it the coldest in the metro area and about 7 degrees difference with the city.

Light Frost on some surfaces

[Gordon]

Another 2.5 mm to 9 am for us so 15.5 mm for the event and 35.5 mm mtd. Not brilliant but not terrible.

Btw for anyone who missed it, amazing scenes in the Blue Mountains last night with heavy snow closing several roads and settling down to 800 m !

[stevco123]

Another 2.5 mm to 9 am for us so 15.5 mm for the event and 35.5 mm mtd. Not brilliant but not terrible.

Btw for anyone who missed it, amazing scenes in the Blue Mountains last night with heavy snow closing several roads and settling down to 800 m !

Lucky it didn't happen 3-4 days ago. Would've been mayhem traveling to Bathurst for the race