Vic: Unstable, cold air, possible storms - October 12 onward

[I_Love_Storms]

Well it is probably worth setting up a topic for this. Latest GFS shows quite a bit of instability Sunday then a ton of instability Monday as shown in below image:



Instability looks like hanging around for most of next week at this point. Could always change but let's follow the developments and discuss in this thread!

[Gordon]

ACCESS is reasonably excited too; seems to have come from nowhere but both GFS & ACCESS suddenly have a decent event early next week. EC not interested yet, so I'll keep the champagne corked for now. Nice if it comes off though!

[johnno]

EC also has the system but bit further east, its cold air being pushed up from the south with Sundays front into the trough over NSW and forms a low, each model has it but different position. I think it will either be a cold showery maybe rain event or nothing at all.. I can't see the storm set up at the moment as the trough/low has to be further west for it to develop for this scenario anyway first is first lets see if models hold onto this low regardless where it develops next couple of runs.

[occluded]

Instability seems to have disappeared from the two latest GFS 18z and 00z runs?

[I_Love_Storms]

It has but latest GFS has a lot more rain forecast:

[Gordon]

Interesting, EC is suddenly keener (for my part of the world) while ACCESS has lost interest and GFS is looking okay still (so far).

[Geoff]

Interesting, EC is suddenly keener (for my part of the world) while ACCESS has lost interest and GFS is looking okay still (so far).

Yes, to sum up, next week will either be mostly wet or mostly dry!

[Wilko]

Good morning all
Nice upgrade with AccessG

[Geoff]

Good morning all
Nice upgrade with AccessG

Yep, and now GFS and EC have gone the other way, yesterday EC had 40mm for my area - today it's down to 5mm, GFS going for 10mm.
Still a lot of sorting out to do as to where the low will position itself.

[I_Love_Storms]

Rainfall definitely downgraded however looks like Sunday may be good for storms! Although looks like relatively low precip at this point.



BTW, yellow a chance, orange likely, red possibly severe.

There will be instability around from Sunday onwards, just a matter of things falling into place. Edit: Most recent GFS run worse, less chance of storms - keeps us guessing!

[johnno]

EC gone right off though EC Ensemble does look better so it may improve again, GFS getting worse and worse, ACCESS who has flip flopped every run is back onto it with the low and plenty of wet weather for us, CMC now also on board after not being yesterday. Hate to say it my guess is there won't be much to this event apart from some storms in east of the state later Sunday (perhaps Melbourne as well) and few showers to follow early next week in an onshore airstream, it has been that sort of year where models have done this then winds it right down... I hope I'm wrong.

[Gordon]

Well BOM seem to believe for now - have gone for 'Rain' for Tuesday, after having 'a shower or two' this time yesterday.

[Geoff]

Most of the models seem to have shifted the majority of the action further east now, certainly great rainfall for all those lucky people living in the Tasman Sea
I think I'll just ignore the charts until Sunday when things should be a little more reliable.

[I_Love_Storms]

Looks like bombing out Gippsland way as usual. Need to get very lucky with these for Central areas. Not overly confident but the weather should be interesting

[fireone]

Much of Victoria could do with a good rain dump at present. Last few months been below average, August was particularly dry, September a little below average.
Eildon Weir level actually has fallen slightly last few days.

50mm would be very welcome over next week or so. :

[Skywalker]

Yep, we badly need some proper rain, especially in non-eastern areas. Had the sprinkler going for the first time last night. Can't remember the last time I've had to do that during October.

[wobbie]

Yep, we badly need some proper rain, especially in non-eastern areas. Had the sprinkler going for the first time last night. Can't remember the last time I've had to do that during October.

Yeah they said on the news last night that the Melbourne reservoirs actually went backwards in what is supposed to be filling season, quite a worry

[I_Love_Storms]

Hmm latest model runs aren't looking the greatest, they are going off this system it seems. Still time for it to change, but at the moment storm and rain chances are looking lower.

[johnno]

The BOM have completely down scaled the forecast for the coming week.. No Surprises

[93ben]

I just hope we get storms in Melbourne but bsch says we won't. Oh well still a long way to go for storm season.