Vic Cold Outbreak July 31 to August 2

[stevco123]

from what I can observe the coldest air is still due tomorrow night. Is this correct?

[Macedonian]

Still snowing nicely here and it's sitting on zero.
No real settling, the stupid warm weather has spoilt the settling. We got 1cm on the ground the other week in about 20mins when the ground was cold.
It's been snowing for two hours now and it won't settle on the wet warm ground

[stevco123]

Reckon the models are warmer on the latest runs. 850T just sneak below -4C. Those values are not that different to what we got 2 weeks ago. Would like to see them sub -4C and for a longer period. Current values should see snow around the tops of the Dandenongs but not a lot lower. Would be marginal for settling.

Of course, tomorrow's run might be colder again. 850Ts are currently about -1 to -2C, with the heavy precip chilling the air to have snow fall lower than you'd normally expect.

Hoping we don't have another near miss..

Cold pool on sat pic looks fantastic, so hopefully models are not picking its intensity.

surely not another near miss. It looked so promising up until a couple of hours ago. Surely it will change

[BringOnTheCoolChange]

Reckon the models are warmer on the latest runs. 850T just sneak below -4C. Those values are not that different to what we got 2 weeks ago. Would like to see them sub -4C and for a longer period. Current values should see snow around the tops of the Dandenongs but not a lot lower. Would be marginal for settling.

Of course, tomorrow's run might be colder again. 850Ts are currently about -1 to -2C, with the heavy precip chilling the air to have snow fall lower than you'd normally expect.

Hoping we don't have another near miss..

Cold pool on sat pic looks fantastic, so hopefully models are not picking its intensity.

I know what you mean.
The cold front at the start of July was a really near miss, it was snowing in the main street in Upwey, but not here, which was just weird, but we are flying off to Hobart tomorrow, so i should definitely see some snow on the hills, possibly even to sea level, whether if it falls in the Dandenongs or not.

[Rivergirl]

My sister in Huonville Tasmania says the Huon river is flooding atm snd could be in the main street tomorrow. They were without power for 48 hours where she lives

[Wilko]

Sat looks unreeaal
http://realtime2.bsch.au.com/enhir_sat.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[wolfcat]

Melbourne Skyline Panorama - Storm Front 31/7/14, on Flickr - click for bigger.

[stevco123]

temps rising... another trough due tomorrow about midday but I dare say it will be mainly sunny before that with a max higher than the 11 forecast just to p××s everyone off

that's what usually happens doesn't it?

[Macedonian]

Snowing for 4hours now but it looks like the cloud band is just about to leave my area. Light snow now, it's like our usual mountain misty drizzle is falling as snow. It's cold enough for it . Still sitting on zero.

[BringOnTheCoolChange]

You seem to be pretty lucky in Mt Macedon, snow never misses there, houses aren't cheap there tho. Hopefully it isn't flooding in Sandy Bay, where we are gonna stay in Tassie, there will be some pretty high tides though.

[droughtbreaker]

Mount Macedon does very well at higher elevations, eg. 800m+ but at lower levels it is a different story these days.

The last really significant low level event here was in 1995. Prior to that we would get significant settling snow about once every 2 years. Snow still seems to fall at Trentham regularly but that's at 700m asl so not particularly 'low level' IMO.

Precip. was a a bit sleety this evening but apart from that nothing to write home about at my elevation (i.e, 520m asl)

Tomorrow still looks like a chance here for some late afternoon and evening snow showers but it is more of a safe bet for the upper parts of Mount Macedon village and certainly up at the summit.

BTW. A bit disturbing that winter temp records are being threatened/broken almost every year now. Already three significant July warm events, i.e last year's 24C day in Melbourne, today's 20C (and more significant warmth in southern NSW and Sydney) and the 23C (or thereabouts) in early August 2011.

I remember when you generally wouldn't see a 20C in Melbourne until late August, some years mid August. How things have changed....

[Onetahuti]

Coldest morning here for a couple of years. Currently 1.2C and foggy with gusty winds. Airmass is cold enough for snow, just need the showers.

Progs are little changed. Maybe just a little upgrade. At this point a case of watching the sky and data. GFS sounding suggest freezing level to drop to about 850m, which will give snow her. Going to be some heavy showers and lower levels are dry so everything is there. Shame I'm going to be at work today

Thinking the change will be sleety, then turn to snow showers mid arvo. EC suggests we'll see temps drop below 3C by mid arvo.

Definitely our best set up since June 2012. That one gave us about 1cm on the ground, and up to 5cm or so around Olinda. Showers were a bit sparse with that system, which is why we didn't get more.

BTW record high at Gabo Island yesterday, and apparently also in Christchurch NZ (that's a news report, so need verification ). Yet another crazy warm prefrontal airmass. Don't think I can recall such a dramatic front in Melbourne in mid winter in recent years. Sure get them in August to December but June and July usually bring a little in the way of temp changes, and even those odd cold fronts when it gets warmer

Not quite for Christchurch. "The temperature reached 21.7C, its second-warmest July temperature of all time in the town. The July record for Christchurch was 22.4C in 2012."
Warm there again today with what is known as the northwester blowing.

[BringOnTheCoolChange]

http://www.weatherzone.com.au/region.js ... lc=v16&d=0" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Now forecasted to snow down to 400m today, do you all think it can happen?

[Gordon]

Light, dry snow falling here for the last 20 mins or so. Temp hovering around 1.5 C.

[Skywalker]

7 degrees here in at work according to the car which is pretty spot on & sun is out.

Have fun those of you who took the day off.

[Macedonian]

A nice cover of snow up here. About 1cm. It's very cold , we got down to -1C early this morning and it's -0.4C atm.
The snow happened between 5.30 and 6.30. I was up at 5 and there wasn't any, all of last nights had melted but fortunately we got some more.
Drought breaker is right. It's so borderline these days. 10 years ago I would have gotten a really decent cover.

Just starting to snow again now. I'm glad I took an extra leave day.

[I_Love_Storms]

I'm loving the look of this. Rainfall upgraded by EC this morning and the snow level also upgraded by BOM to 400m - best we have seen by far this winter. Expecting the Dandenongs to get quite a bit of snow this afternoon and also possibly some suburbs. Keeping in mind It snowed in some lower lying areas the other week with a warmer airmass and this system looks colder and more aggressive with some real polar air

[Dane]

Should be an interesting day. Might go for a drive in the Dandenongs later if things look good later.
BTW plenty of snow down in Tassie with Mt Wellington looking very white
http://www.rosebay.tased.edu.au/Camera.htm" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[Supercellimpact]

I'm in Ballarat and it's 3 degrees, and it's raining here. I reckon in have a decent shot at seeing some snow today.

Edit- I'm seeing some very small flakes mixed within the rain now.

[Gordon]

First few flakes of the next round appearing here and it looks like a sustained period of snow to come. Interestingly, no rain at all since last night - everything since has fallen as snow.