Victoria: Showers and another cold blast 15-20 July

[Gordon]

Looks like tomorrow will be the only truly fine day for most of Victoria and then we're back into light rain/ showers from Tuesday. Another very cold day likely on Thursday, with BOM forecasting snow to 600 m.

No let up until at least Sunday, maybe even Monday?

[Dane]

Still looking quite good for the Upcoming system although some of the models have eased off slightly.
BOM now going for snow above 700 meters on the Hills around Melbourne later this week rather than 600 meters that was previously forecast. The Dandenongs may just miss out again.
Don't you wish that Melbourne's winter temperatures were about 3c colder.

[stevco123]

EC and ACCESS are looking very cold. Would expect sub 500m snow if they hold. GFS is a bit milder.

Main concern is moisture. Looks quite dry with the coldest air Thur night into Fri.

Thinking tomorrow could be very cold too if the cloud and rain times it right. Chilly night will mean a low start for many. Could well see low level snow in the central ranges if the precip is persistent enough.

I was actually just thinking how cold it was even with the cloud. imagine if it wasn't cloudy how cod it would be.

Would certainly be interesting tomorrow...

[snowshow]

Very cold here today 1050 am and its only 6.8 c Brrrrrr

[Wilko]

We can lock in Thursday as a nasty windy cold day with 12c day
Love it
Won't be too much rain by look of it but hopefully some thunderstorms and chaos to see over the Bay

[Didjman]

Heard Scott Williams(I think) from the BoM on 774 this evening say snow expected down to 200m on Thursday! Pity I am working. If it comes off - BEWARE OF BLACK ICE on the roads!
Peter

[Didjman]

Um... that's low.

He also expanded to say snow in the "nearby hills around Melbourne"
Peter

[Australis(Shell3155)]

I might be in for a show of snow, I'd be happy for the hills to get a good burst so I can see it from here. live in hope.

[Wilko]

Steady rain now for last hour and not budging

[Jake Smethurst]

Went in to Crown last night at about 10pm to meet a mate and to try my luck, and was raining the whole way in and the whole way home. Would have been a few mm's for sure, it was steady.

Still looking the goods for Thursday, and thundery showers starting to approach over the southwest now.

[Skywalker]

Heard Scott Williams(I think) from the BoM on 774 this evening say snow expected down to 200m on Thursday! Pity I am working. If it comes off - BEWARE OF BLACK ICE on the roads!
Peter

Crickey!

I wonder if anything has changed since he made those comments last night. Might have to seriously consider pulling a sickie to enjoy it. Bugger work.

It's also Dad's birthday on Thursday as well so might be driving up to Kilmore at some stage. Now that will be interesting experience should those conditions eventuate.

[Wilko]

4.5mm here last night which was bit of a surprise
Yes looks quite stormy to SW
What's the chance of decent storm action overnight ?

[I_Love_Storms]

The 200m wasn't tassie was it?

[Wilko]

This one looks like a cracker


Severe Weather Warning
for damaging winds
for people in the South West, Central and West and South Gippsland forecast
districts.

Issued at 3:49 pm EST on Wednesday 16 July 2014.

Weather Situation
A strong cold front is expected to cross Victoria during Thursday. The front is
expected near the far southwest border early Thursday morning, moving to east
Gippsland by the evening.

Northwest to southwesterly winds around 50 km/h with damaging peak gusts of 90
to 100 km/h are forecast for parts of the South West, Central and West and
South Gippsland forecast districts.

[stevco123]

Perhaps the BoM on radio said "a few hundred metres"?

Either way, gut feeling says this may surprise on what it delivers. Depends when coldest air comes through. Unfortunately the coldest air is usually the driest so if it comes tomorrow night then it may be moisture starved

[Gordon]

Latest BOM Central District forecast says snow to 600 m, while their latest Melbourne forecast says snow to 700 m.

Healthy looking band on the radar as the front enters western VIc.

[Gordon]

PS: Possibly more a Climate topic, but the IOD has now been officially negative (below minus 0.4) for a month. Still not classified as an 'event' but as a negative IOD is my favourite rain producing system for our area, that may partly explain the continual good rain here since June.

[stevco123]

Saw a map earlier with a 528 line over central Victoria and melbourne. Doesn't that usually mean snow to about 400m?

[Gordon]

Saw a map earlier with a 528 line over central Victoria and melbourne. Doesn't that usually mean snow to about 400m?

Certainly helps to 5-600 m; not sure about 400 m. I think moisture will be the issue for us - temps will be cold enough for some of tomorrow and especially later in the day/at night; question will be whether we can get a few nice cells at the same time.

[Geoff]

I haven't seen a chart with the 528 line over Vic, but AccessG does have the 532 line over all of central and eastern Vic from 1200hrs until 1800hrs Thursday. Whilst this could well bring snow down to 500 metres or so, it is also occurring at the warmest part of the day, so lessens the chances somewhat. It's a game of wait and see - as always!