Vic: Humid. Showers/rain/storms event March 24th to 28th

[Blackie]

Another 11mm since midnight brings our MTD to 63mm, 20 mm above the LTA for Mansfield. Wednesday again looking ok at this stage for the NE.

[johnno]

Models have bit of rain 2-5mm for central areas Wednesday though long range ACCESS seems to think there is more, EC has little still and GFS backs off but its after this that gets interesting.. EC continues to push an upper trough in from the west later in the week meaning a cloud band and rain develops over SA and moves into NSW Friday with an easterly dip pushing some of the rain in Victoria.. EC is the best of the models pushing rain through northern, eastern, central areas even as far back as the Otways, ACCESS is also trying to come onboard but has the system slightly more east and GFS still not that interested but something to keep an eye on. IF the Friday/Saturday system eventuates watch the showers/rain stall over north east Vic and East Gipppsland ahead of the new upper trough Friday which means there is a possibility there could be some good falls across the north east and east Gippsland Wednesday to Sunday.

Mabye time for a new thread?

Models also hinting at another major LWT and good moisture from WA next week in terms of a north west cloudband, starting to Look like Autumn pattern to me.

[Geoff]

Weak wind change out west. Looks to be a bit thundery, though wonder if some of the echoes are controlled burns interacting with the virga band

I don't know, if that's caused by controlled burns then the whole western side of Melbourne is on fire.
Some red and orange on the radar and increasingly so, we need someone out there reporting in - what's going on over there?

[Supercellimpact]

Currently in Ballarat and I can confirm we have had a few heavy showers, currently raining too. Probs a few mm in it. For example Sheoaks has recorded 2.4mm.

[Geoff]

Thanks for the report Supercellimpact, I thought there was something in it, whether or not it makes it any further east we'll just have to wait and see.

[johnno]

I'm guessing people have lost faith in models? Even the BOM are still saying just the "chance of showers" Fri and Saturday even though EC persists with rain and a good drop for central Victoria and Melbourne this morning and has been this way for several days now. If this had of been few months ago BOM would of predicted "rain" 6 days out.

Not looking to shabby Tomorrow either though the best of the falls will be east of Melbourne and into Gippsland and the north east with thunderstorm activity.

[johnno]

The EC model isn't the only model going for the Fri and Saturday event.. UK is too as is CMC.

Here is the rain CMC is predicting between now and early Sunday morning

http://www.weatheronline.co.nz/cgi-bin/ ... O=&PERIOD=" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[johnno]

Navgems former Nogaps surface pattern Saturday morning...

http://www.weatheronline.co.nz/cgi-bin/ ... RIOD=&WMO=" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Cmc surface pattern Saturday morning...

http://www.weatheronline.co.nz/cgi-bin/ ... MO=&ZOOM=0" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

So looks like GFS is the outliner at the moment... Could explain why no one is talking about it? Cos most people look at GFS.

Fingers crossed.

[Skywalker]

It hit 34.9C locally here at work during the past half hour.

[Onetahuti]

0.2mm in Ferny Creek from those showers overnight.

Geez is it warm out there.... Record to watch in Melbourne is 34.9C. Going to give that a shake

Scoresby looks to have set a new recorded April high of 33.4°C, previous high 33.3°C on 10/4/05.
CBD 1.5°C off with 33.4°C.

[Desertdust]

Last I looked we had 36c here, small cell came over about 1pm with a thunderclap that woke up this shiftworker.

[WeatherViewer]

Last I looked we had 36c here, small cell came over about 1pm with a thunderclap that woke up this shiftworker.

Yup about 37.5 here in Wyndham Vale, crazy temps for this time of year.

[Jake Smethurst]

I agree John ... people seem to look at only GFS for some reason, I'd say because it's the most widely available. Also, we will start a new thread shortly.

Lovely warm conditions here today. Not sure on what our max was, but it would have been into the low 30's. We had some light convective showers last night as well around 10-11pm ... felt lovely on the skin!

A few thunderstorms currently over eastern districts, BoM has issued a STW for those. Also would say the risk of an isolated thundery shower over the western and central parts from now until later this evening. That includes Melbourne. Still some instability floating about and there has been recent reported lightning in the west, but very isolated and light. Should be in the forecasts nevertheless.