Vic: Humid. Showers/rain/storms event March 24th to 28th

[Wilko]

Models looking better by my amateur eye
Heaps of instability as the trough heads westward
Great rain for many parched areas in QLD, NSW and parts of Northern Vic
Forecast looks ok now and quite humid all week and with bit luck Melb may get 20mm or more with storms
It's a big event in terms of the large area effected
Predicting things will change and become quite unstable as the trough deepens and the moisture feeds in
Think it's time to do the gutter clean out

[johnno]

EC still looks good around 20mm it has for Melbourne tonight, GFS 10-25mm UK 10-25mm for our area. EC has around 40mm areas to the north east of Melbourne around Marysville and that so looking good.

I wouldn't worry about the cloudmass over eastern coast being to far east at the moment it's the showers and storms that develop on the western side of that cloud which is what will fill it in the next 24 hours or so.

Models hinting on an amplifying trough over WA next week which may give us good upslide north westerlies for us good moisture feeder into cold fronts, EC already hinting at more rainfall later Monday and into Tuesday.

[Rhino]

Big downgrade for my area tonight to the point where 10mm will be a really good fall now and EC forecasting around 3mm over thurs-fri so don't know if it's yankin me crank or fair dinkum but gone from around 35mm to 3mm so a big drop and really looks east and particularly nth east district will get the best of this, even OCF going for 13mm now which had 20mm this morning. Nth districts might get some good falls with storms but can only hope for a upgrade in forecasts tomorrow morning although unlikely, will take 10mm though and fingers crossed for some surprises .

Rhino.

[Australis(Shell3155)]

What looked like a sun shower, was about 4 drops mid morning, they were pretty big ones.
then corker of a day, which leads to multiple sets of clothes,

[Jake Smethurst]

Had work at 7am this morning, so was up by 6am. Didn't really notice any rain or showers. Otherwise it turned out to be a beautiful day whilst I was running around conducting interviews for a story.

I'm still remaining positive about the upcoming event. Considering we have had persistent model downgrades on previous systems by now, it's looking pretty good. I'd agree with John and suggest around 10-25mm for the Melbourne region. Locally higher falls with thunderstorms but of course the eastern districts look to get the best of the falls in total overall.

Shower and thunderstorm activity looks possible across all areas of Victoria tomorrow including for Melbourne, and they could produce heavy rainfall, large hail and damaging winds. The northwest and western half in general have slightly higher prospects for storm development. I'll see if I can get our storm chart up some time tomorrow. Otherwise ... rain looks set to spread westwards from the east and northeast during the day, reaching Melbourne later at around 9-11pm.

[Rhino]

Do think some places locally will do really well with storm activity, OCF still going for around 10mm here, but won't be surprised to get 20mm . Clear this morning so will get a good look at any developing storms and can notice a white tinge to the NE already and radar looking nice so should be a good arvo in places me thinks particulary NW vic although everything will be heading WSW so not the best for us armchair chasers .

Rhino.

[Alexia]

Few little showers have started already this morning. Fingers crossed for a good day. We have been missing out on good rain last couple months. First good rain 21st Mar. 23mm good start.

[stratospear]

BOM are only going for 15mm here in Bendigo. I'm hoping for 25mm+ given the state of our garden/desert. EC thinks as much.

Would love to have a repeat of March 5, 2010 (the day before Melbourne's monster hailstorm) when a repeatedly back-building rainband dumped 160mm in parts of town in one day! Won't happen due to the atmosphere not being quite as unstable.

[Alexia]

Showers are now light rain

[stratospear]

Hmmm, 18Z GFS says we'll only get 10mm now....

[Skywalker]

Have a gut feeling things could go off later today if this morning's conditions are anything to go by. There's definitely some moisture in the air.
Just hope that anything that develops holds off until I arrive home as I'm on the bike.

[johnno]

Hmmm, 18Z GFS says we'll only get 10mm now....

12z for the next 108 hrs which takes us to Sunday

http://forecasts.bsch.com.au/raincast.h ... 08:aus:nul" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

18z for the next 108 hrs which takes us to Sunday

http://forecasts.bsch.com.au/raincast.h ... aus:nul#rc" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;


There is hardly any difference especially through northern ctry, nth central and central Vic. Both show 10mm+ for most of those areas in both runs.

[Wilko]

Wow moisture is pumping in from the NE
Usually these set ups do not favour my area too well but due to the
Huge influx of moisture it might defy the usual trend
Anywhere from 5mm to 40mm+ possible

[Lara_Hunter]

Looking great for the north east...
Alexia, I hope you guys get a good dump up there.. was extremely dry when I was up at Shelley hunting over the Labour Day long weekend.. Ill be back for a week come mid April, so the more rain we get the better

[Jake Smethurst]

I still think it's looking good as well!

Bit of thunderstorm activity in far NW of the state. Should see more later.

The Australian Weather Forum
THUNDERSTORM FORECAST - DAY 1
Issued at: 1:45 PM

Forecast for Wednesday

Isolated thunderstorms will be possible across the majority of Victoria today thanks to a broad area of low pressure. Activity is considered more likely over the far west and northwest of the state this afternoon and evening closer to an upper trough over South Australia, with the least likely area being the far east due to cloud cover. Severe thunderstorms are possible, mainly over the western districts, with damaging winds, heavy rainfall and large hailstones all possible today.

[Skywalker]

That is sure one massive band on the national radar. It stretches from the very top of QLD right down to almost Melbourne!

[norwester]

Thunder, dust storm, huge wind gusts and just starting to rain - yipee!
edit: about 8 spots of rain!!

[Rhino]

Geez, 19mm in 12 mins in Mildura, that's a tasty meatball of a rainrate.....

Rhino.

[Jake Smethurst]

The Australian Weather Forum
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ADVICE
Please use official warnings from the BoM for professional purposes.

Thunderstorm activity is now developing more rapidly across parts of the north and west Victoria, and may produce damaging winds, large hailstones and heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding.

Districts which are likely to be affected include the Mallee, Wimmera, Southwest and parts of the Central and North Central.

Mildura has seen 21.4mm of rain so far today associated with thunderstorms.

[norwester]

I'm 8km from Mildura airport -nil in my gauge so far!!