Victoria: Late summer cool/cold snap Feb 18 to 21 2014

[Skywalker]

Maybe it's confusing Olinda with the western suburbs Geoff.

Beautiful morning out there, absolutely perfect conditions for the ride in.

Day off the bike tomorrow, so all we need now is that wet stuff to fall from the sky and give the gardens a badly needed drink.

[johnno]

Geoff which GFS u looking at mate? GFS also has low rainfall

This pic is rainfall progged for next 72 hours which takes in this system

http://forecasts.bsch.com.au/raincast.h ... 72:aus:nul" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

This GFS is for the next week which takes in next weeks system that GFS also has for us

http://forecasts.bsch.com.au/raincast.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[johnno]

But in saying that I think now GFS and EC are underestimating especially east of the city.. there will be a balance guys

[I_Love_Storms]

Huge downgrade by EC this morning, just 5mm for Olinda and Melbourne, and around 20mm for bayside suburbs. GFS and NCEP both still keen with 25mm generally for most of the area. I think EC are having problems, I'll be flabbergasted if we only get 5mm from this event.

Doesn't seem right for Olinda if Rowville is forecast to get about 20mm...

[Dane]

Well models are bouncing around a bit but I think my area (Cranbourne) will get 10 to 20mm's from it.
Hope so as that last system was a real fizzer for the southern suburbs. Still on MTD of 1mm.

[Wilko]

Cracker day today
Has that Autumn feeling except for the dryness
Finally a decent event on our doorstep
It would be great if the low stalls a bit
Expecting 20mm or a lot more if the Bay effect maxes

[Rivergirl]

Looking forward to it Can't wait for a bit of soaking of the garden. We have watered a lot up here this summer. At least we could, not like 2009 water restrictions

[Wilko]

Gee the Bom 4 day map looks interesting
http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/4day_col.shtml" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[I_Love_Storms]

Gee the Bom 4 day map looks interesting
http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/4day_col.shtml" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Looking good, it'll be a good weather day tomorrow

[dazrain]

Looks like the central QLD trough has pushed South overnight. Will this add a bit of extra spice once the cold pool moves through?

[Didjman]

Bit of Cu going up along central ranges atm.
Peter

[I_Love_Storms]

BOM have downgraded slightly from yesterday's 5-15mm for Melbourne to 4-10mm. Yes lots of Cu now and a few cells firing up. I think we are in for a good day. Melbourne may only get 10mm but areas east of the CBD should get more. Hoping for about 25mm

[Jake Smethurst]

Locally severe thunderstorms I think will be the go at some stage today for Melbourne. Conditions are certainly looking very unstable and we obviously have a good moisture profile, temp range and a trigger. Already some cells forming over the central ranges. Looking like an interesting day. Watch for strong winds, heavy rain and even hail.

[Nick Sykes]

Can only see south from my current location but the altocumulus and cumulus I can see look good, unstable sky

Nick

[Geoff]

Big fat raindrops falling here, from that line coming down from the N/W.

[Didjman]

Line exploding from Bendigo to Koo Wee Rup - passing just nth of here. Rigorus updraughts going up here with a few rumbles. Cells rapidly moving down the line.
Peter

[Nick Sykes]

Looking at the obs it looks like those storms are developing along a trough.

[Australis(Shell3155)]

Few fat dropps here also, now first bit of thunder..

[Geoff]

Frequent growling thunder here and steady fat rain, but the drops are still fairly sparse, getting thicker now. I think the red cells on the radar are indicative of the size of the drops rather than the quantity falling.

[Didjman]

cloud bases are fairly high still, but very picturesque (big dymples).
Peter