Serious smoke around here as you would expect. Visibility is only about 2km at best. A run of light winds ahead will trap the smoke for some time unless we can get rain on Saturday as GFS is progging.
I don't really know what to make of this upcoming system. EC still progging next to nothing for most of the state despite showing big falls for just one run (which was yesterday morning's run). BOM ACCESS has a little each way. It shows reasonable falls down as far as the ranges but not much else.
I'm still hopeful for 5-10mm here which would be a pittance but better than nothing.
Big shift in the patterns evident. The upper high that we have been stuck under for much of the last month is replaced by a significant upper trough that at this stage stays with us for at least the next 10 days and intensifies into a major upper system late in the model runs. There is little over 30C for the next 10 days+ at this stage, at least for on and south of the ranges, and even tomorrow has downgraded to a 'normal' hot summer day rather than an extreme one, with 40C only likely in the far north of the state.
If the models hold on this then it is possible that we have seen the last of the extreme heat as it will be getting late in the month by the time heat builds up again, and at that stage the sun's intensity is backing right off as the most intense of the sun's radiation moves back towards Papua New Guinea and Indonesia on its way to the equator.
There will still be some hot spells in March with bad fire weather, but IMHO we shouldn't see much in the way of high 30s and 40s for days on end. Hopefully I'm not tempting fate though.
![Confused :?](./images/smilies/icon_e_confused.gif)