Vic: Dec 11 to 20 - Mainly dry and becoming hot

[Karl Lijnders]

Looking like a great system coming up after some brief heat. I think we can look forward to some temps in the 35-38C range for Melbourne. Cannot quite see the 40C mark just yet as I think moisture and cloud will develop and afternoon showers and thunderstorms, not widespread, will feature in the state on Thursday.

That activity will become more widespread with showers and storms tending widespread during Friday and Saturday eventually turning to thundery rain by Sunday. Quite humid conditions as we go along as well. By the time we get to next week we will be looking towards warmer conditions, but still unsettled enough for showers and thunderstorms in pockets around the state.

Potential for 30-50mm widespread over the coming 7 days.

Summer has arrived.

[I_Love_Storms]

Hopefully Karl. BOM Meteye doesn't have much at this stage, nor does GFS. EC is onto it though. Could go either way I think. Gut feeling is we may get at least one good day of rain and possibly storms over the weekend or early next week.

[Jake Smethurst]

Welcome back Karl! Always good to see your comments!

I agree with both of you. I think Thursday's temperature is still in discovery mode, high 30's look likely but I am not ruling out a 40 just yet, although it appears GFS has backed off slightly for Thursday. The cloud should only be high cloud initially before mainly low precip showers and thunderstorms develop over southern parts of the southwest and central districts (including Melbourne). Friday's temperature I think will still reach the high 30's, but is highly dependent on the movement of the trough across the state, and if it's slower, obviously it will be hotter for Melbourne. GFS tonight has re-introduced high 30 temperatures for central parts with the milder conditions not likely until mid-late afternoon. Again probably likely to see low precip showers and thunderstorms develop, particularly near the trough. Weekend is looking good for some rainfall, with a band of rain likely to translate across the state. And Christmas is looking warm and unsettled at this point still. Remember to keep up to date with the AWF Christmas Forecast on our website, and we will keep analysing things here on the forum: http://theaustralianweatherforum.com/ch ... ecast.html.

Edit: By the way a pulse type thunderstorm in the northeast at the moment.

[I_Love_Storms]

The latest BOM forecast is very encouraging. Rain from Saturday until at least Monday. Would be nice if it holds

[Wilko]

Thanks team for the Christmas forecast much appreciated
Looks like it may Chop and change quite a bit before then however Certainly some sultry stormy weather on the cards
May have one eye on the roast turkey in one eye on the radar come Christmas Day

[Sugarlata]

Hello Everyone!

I have been at Surfers Paradise for the past half a week - have had a ball. Got to go chasing on Saturday, although we limited ourselves to the afternoon. We hung around until about 3pm in Rathdowney. Right as we left a cell south of us split, the left mover intensified and headed straight for Rathdowney. An hour and a half after we left there was hail the size of tennis balls falling in the area. I was kicking myself all the way, until I saw the photos on Facebook and considering we were in a hire car it was probably the right choice .
Afterwards went to Q1 tower in Surfers and caught a lightning producing storm as it passed by after sunset. Got a few great shots, first time using an SLR camera, spent two hours up there before the storm came through. I ended up having to rest the lens against the glass, with one hand around it to kill the reflection of the glass. Here's one of my favourites:



Coming home on Thursday and can't believe that it's looking like storms on Thursday. We touch down about 8pm, I'm the only one in the family that's hoping for dodging storms on approach to Melbourne. Here's hoping!

Also, good work to the team on the Christmas Day forecast. If it's anywhere close to 2011 I won't be able to contain myself. Have already decided if I lose a windscreen it'll be worth it! (Have to experience it at least once right?)

Will be following this thread very closely and the Christmas Day one!

[Jake Smethurst]

Still keeping my thoughts from above, but in saying that ACCESS has actually increased it's maximum temperatures for the state for Thursday. It will be highly cloud dependent. Tonight's models are also still rather persistent at introducing the milder trough and change during Friday. It appears the west coast and parts of the central coast will be affected by this change early Friday but it won't start to move inland until late morning or afternoon and it will be very slow moving. Melbourne should see cooler conditions earl-mid afternoon at this point but could reach as high as 36 degrees. Areas in the north facing another 40 degree day!

Some instability is likely to move into the southwest and central parts on Thursday afternoon and night, and this will probably cause isolated showers and thunderstorms in these areas (including a risk for Melbourne), but they will be of the low precipitation type. In saying that though, these usually produce good lightning. They should continue on Friday across most areas but particularly near the convergence with the trough. Gusty winds looking likely with showers and storms both days.

Patchy rain about the state on Saturday is looking likely as well.

It's interesting to see that GFS isn't really interested in the wetter period for Sunday onwards. It's more inclined to have clearing conditions before a return to warmer and instability (shower/storm) type weather Monday onwards. It will be interesting to watch the models next few days and certainly makes forecasting for Christmas challenging!

Speaking of which, they have all been updated!

Fantastic photo Sugarlata!!! Looking forward to more of your shots this Summer!

[droughtbreaker]

I think the high temps forecasts, especially for Friday, might be a little 'GFS/ACCESS centric' here. EC tends to move things through quicker and then has a low with southerlies behind it a bit later on while GFS gives us a stalling trough for days.

I'm certainly not ruling out the GFS scenario but it's not the only side of the story.

If I had to give a forecast I would say 38C on Thursday in Melbourne and then around 32C-33C on Friday but of course it's highly dependent on when the change hits the bay.

Moisture is reasonable on Thursday/Friday so isolated storms should develop with some half decent falls possible, eg. 10-15mm , but only very localised.

[Geoff]

Watching the satellite images closely now as masses of cloud are starting to cover much of WA, NT and moving into SA. This will be key to how high our temperatures get on Thursday/Friday. A lot of cloud on Thursday and 36-37c could be as high as it is likely to get. Also rising humidity, and winds not too strong, I wonder if we can expect a seabreeze front to form where it meets the hot air, perhaps around south central districts, could set off some decent storms Thursday afternoon.

[I_Love_Storms]

Don't have high hopes for storms on Thursday and Friday. EC now throwing down the hot air again on Friday, looking about 37 after 38 on Thursday. Saturday and Sunday look fairly humid but nothing special. Monday looking like a good day for potential storms and potentially a lot of rain.

[stevco123]

Some quite heavy drizzle this morning here with a cloud base of around 220m judging by the cloud covering the top of the hill in the Police Paddocks.

Easterly winds tend to produce this, and it was amazing watching the low cloud move in on a full moon last night.

[johnno]

I changed my forecast for Melbourne on my JWC in the early hours of the morning that it wouldn't be 26c today and amended it to 23c just suddenly hit me it wouldn't be that warm, I see the BOM did exactly the same thing in there usual morning 505am forecast and amended it back to same temperature I did. Cloud has lingered longer than all the previous days.

On a side note I have been observing the new Olympic park site closely past 4 weeks and am not liking what I am seeing on southerly wind/sea breeze days it tends to be one of if not the coolest site in the Melbourne area, usually cooler than Avalon, Laverton, Moorabbin airport and some days even cooler than Cerberus. This has to be a concern seems like we have gone from one extreme to another. Other days in westerlies and northerlies seems to be fine but you would not expect it to be the coolest or bottom 2 or 3 coolest and as cool if not cooler than the coastal areas 50kms further south on southerly wind/seabreeze days.

[johnno]

Cause? I think it is to close to the Bay and as soon as a southerly or seabreeze develops and northern port phillip bay is re noun for sea breezes in Summer it tends to be one of the lowest sites in Melbourne temperature wise. Checked on google few weeks ago it is only 3kms or so away from the bay the site.

[johnno]

Small thing but I have also noticed the BOM are not mentioning the maximum at Olympic park anymore since Saturday in there "Notes on the weather" part, maybe not to confuse people? Not sure why, could be that or maybe another reason but they had been for a month putting both sites Minimum's and Maximum's up and have suddenly stoped doing that sticking with just the old site.

[Nick Sykes]

Goes to show you how local geography can affect a local climate, in a city as big as Melbourne there are going to be differences. The CBD site would be a good site to see temps for a city site, while Olympic park is good for site a little closer to the bay exposed to southerly winds

Onto the next few days, the models have slowed the change down for Friday again, so Friday has the potential to be a very hot day as well. Thursday still looks around 40 for Melbourne, Friday could be about the same depending on the timing of the change, 35 a safer guess. Then it looks likes quite an extended period of wet weather, not sure how much rain at this stage, looks very messy with troughs and lows possible.

Nick

[stevco123]

Personally I like the way the new weather station at Olympic park measures the temperature.

How many times have us suburbians complained how much colder the city feels, especially in winter. I think the massive swings in temperature reflect Melbourne City better, rather than the constant 2, 3 or even 5 degrees warmer than surrounding areas.

Example, a couple of days ago it was 20.2 in Dandenong on my weather station, and 19 at Olympic Park...but 23 at the old site. I happened to be in the city on that day and let me tell you there was no way it was 23.

Here's hoping the BoM doesn't do a backflip on their decision to use the Olympic Park site as the official site from next year.

[I_Love_Storms]

Sunday is now looking the goods for storms according to latest GFS.



Fair bit of rain also forecast - maybe 20-30mm or so!

Latest BOM forecast holds 40c for Thursday, which I still feel is strange considering the humidity around. If the temp gets to 40c it will be doing well, I think we had one day last year like that (humid and very hot). Weekend now looking wetter, with Saturday to Monday the key days.

[johnno]

Well today is another day that every site in Melbourne passed 20c including Frankston! (21.5c) but Olympic park struggles to get to 20c (19.7c) I tend to disagree these days it is not a true reflection of whats happening everywhere else in Melbourne. I was all for moving the site but there is no balance, should of been moved to either flagstaff gardens or carlton gardens or treasury gardens just don't agree where it is at the moment on these type of days cos it isn't a true reflection of what's happening the rest of Melbourne.

So basically in the future on these type of days Frankston will be warmer than "Melbourne" How can that be? Its not right given where Frankston is positioned and "Melbourne" is almost 2c less 40ks further north!

I'm still sticking to 38c or 39 Thursday. Mid 30's Friday change somewhere between 10am and 1pm for inner Melbourne but I expect southerly winds at south channel island before 10am.

Looking fairly good for some rainfall after that.

[Jake Smethurst]

The drizzle this morning was a bit unexpected. I was driving to work at about 9am and a drizzly shower went through. :/

Otherwise, things are still looking on track for Thursday and Friday. Melbourne should still see about 40 on Thursday in my opinion with the cloud mostly being high cloud and middle level cloud not really arriving until later. Remember guys, the team here at the AWF forecasted the 40 7-days out, so good work guys! I think the biggest thing that is obviously in question is the timing of the trough on Friday. I think most models have held it back again ever so slightly tonight for the second night in a row, but must admit GFS was on to this for a while now. As I said the other day, pretty sure it's going to be another quite hot day across the state, except for of course the southwest and parts of the coast where the change will be in the morning. I don't think Melbourne will see it until anywhere around 1-2pm onwards. Meaning ... a 35/36 max is possible.

Should be some instability floating around on Thursday and Friday throughout the state as well. Looking at the progs, isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible through most areas, but particularly in the south near convergence on Thursday and also the ranges, and then near the trough on Friday. I personally don't think they will hold much in the way of rainfall and should be mainly dry, but I suspect the lightning display will be quite good.

The weekend is looking wet with a deepening trough turning into a cut-off somewhere near the state. Areas of rain on Saturday and at least Sunday. Chance of thunderstorms too.

Conditions looks set to clear on Monday and return to mostly fine weather on Christmas Eve Tuesday. Christmas Day looks mostly fine too at this point and warm throughout, milder near the coast with seabreezes.

All our official forecasts and Christmas forecast have been updated earlier this evening here: http://theaustralianweatherforum.com/victoria.html

[johnno]

Friday could end up the hotter day Jake... At least that's what GFS seems to think tonight has 39c for Friday in Melbourne and 37c Thursday... Tough to forecasts with these sort of summer changes/troughs and models going back and forth with timing of the change but does make it interesting that's for sure