Vic - Rain, Cut-off Lows: Sept 13-19

[aussiestormfreak]

I initially thought it was "all over red rover" but I guess it could be "game-on" instead; over the past couple hours things have developed over Western and Central parts of Victoria with showers and thunderstorms now developing and increasing on the radar, including some activity entering the Melbourne metropolitan area, some decent rainfall over Cape Otway, and some rather lightning-active cells out around the Grampians/Horsham/Ararat, hope this is just the start and that there's much more to come!

[Australis(Shell3155)]

facebook said hail Horsham, size of small marbles.

[johnno]

I believe it too going by the radar

[Dane]

Had 5.8mm's in the 24 hours to 9am this morning, MTD now 117.2mm's, YTD 648mm's.
Had some good showers between 8 and 9am, did not hear any thunder.

[aussiestormfreak]

That makes three of us, I didn't hear any thunder during the night, and yes it did rain but not enough to register on my weather station (1mm is the minimum threshold)

At least it's going to be a nice sunny day!

[Jake Smethurst]

Four of us, didn't hear any thunder last night, but thunderstorms were observed across the western parts of the state so just not in populated areas.

Unfortunately, I can't get the thunderstorm charts up at the moment because I don't have my main computer available, however the risk for today is across the eastern districts as the trough moves into the area during peak heating. Extra forcing and convergence across the eastern ranges would mean that this area is more likely. Marginal risk for large hall and flash flooding.

For tomorrow the risk of thunderstorms is quite touch and go. There is a large dry layer of air across the lower parts of the atmosphere, before things get more unstable the higher you go. So any convection may struggle in-terms of surface based activity although there is a risk it will break the cap with steepening lapse rates and increasing surface temperatures. Therefore, the chance of surface based thunderstorms extends across most western and central districts (although noting the Mallee has driest air). Mid to high based thunderstorms are more likely compared to surface based, and this risk area extends over the same area. It will be a day of watching the radar and morning soundings/observations.

I will try and update the charts this afternoon at some point.

[typhoon29]

Torrential shower this morning @ 4amish, woke us all up! Fire hydrant stuff!

Umm possible storms tomorrow??

Please explain?

Considering the BoM has fine partly cloud and windy....????

Ballarat: Partly cloudy. Winds northerly 20 to 30 km/h increasing to 30 to 45 km/h in the morning then turning westerly 15 to 20 km/h in the late evening.

[droughtbreaker]

More strange is BOM's temp forecasts for the state all around 2C higher than any of the model outputs or consensus forecasts are indicating.

eg. 27C in Melbourne- Consensus model forecast is 25C.
23C in Ballarat- Consensus forecast only going for 21C.
26C in Bendigo- Consensus is 24C
26C in Wangaratta- Consensus 24C again.

Latest GFS is about 2C-4C lower for 850T than the previous run.

Bureau usually get it right when they go out on a limb but with some notable exceptions from time to time. It will be interesting to see if they are right this time.

[Jake Smethurst]

Typhoon, Reading into the model prognostics yesterday for today there was always going to be a risk of thunderstorms today. I said it was touch and go because they had to break the dry layer first, and that is still the case. My analysis above stands. The BoM have joined in on forecasting possible storms in this mornings forecasts.

[93ben]

Well the BOM got the temperature wrong today... It didn't even come close to 27 degrees! It only got up to 23.1! This was probably caused by the amount of cloud cover that started coming in around late morning.

[I_Love_Storms]

Some awesome mammatus out there...looking very unstable

[Skywalker]

Well the BOM got the temperature wrong today... It didn't even come close to 27 degrees! It only got up to 23.1! This was probably caused by the amount of cloud cover that started coming in around late morning.

The BOM couldn't organize a chook raffle at present. They are having a pretty ordinary month IMO.

[SC.]

Some awesome mammatus out there...looking very unstable

Yep, seen it here also. I wish it was a bit warmer but the DP has risen to 12ºC

[Duckey]

VERY distinctive mammatus over Burwood at the moment, very defined - must be quite unstable out there.

[Sugarlata]

Mammatus out there was looking amazing from Nunawading. Out east of here it's looking like it's turning to rain, will be an interesting evening.

[mick]

Watched that go over my head about an hour ago Sug. Lots of low level junkus visible over the other side of the bay but now showing on radar.

[aussiestormfreak]

I happened to see lightning today, yes I can confirm that I saw one or two flashes at around 5:30pm over Docklands and the Melbourne City skyline while at the Royal Melbourne Show this afternoon/evening, the sky to the south/southeast sure was dark at the time, and I believe that they were intracloud flashes that I saw; I couldn't hear any thunder unfortunately because of the noise from the Show of course

Forgot to mention that the sky sure was impressive with turbulence, mammatus and virga galore on the way across town to the Showgrounds, a few spits of rain around Rowville btw, and sure was windy sadly the winds were quite strong and due to safety concerns the fireworks was shortened to only a few minutes oh and there was quite a lovely sunset this evening!