Cold Nights, Sunny Days.

[Macedonian]

another frost this morning, that is 8 out of the last 9 days with frost and only one of those days where the frost melted completely. weird weather for mt macedon, we are usually to cloudy and drizzly and awful for repeat frosts. another corker of a day today, t shirt weather two days in a row in june, unheard of

[stratospear]

another frost this morning, that is 8 out of the last 9 days with frost and only one of those days where the frost melted completely. weird weather for mt macedon, we are usually to cloudy and drizzly and awful for repeat frosts. another corker of a day today, t shirt weather two days in a row in june, unheard of

Late June-early July 1992 was similar to this. Then it was several months straight of mostly cold and wet weather along with 3m+ snow in the alps...

[johnno]

I have read and witnessed over the Years that the SAM, IOD and ENSO all have roughly the same % effect over most of SA and Vic (away from the sw coast) with perhaps the IOD slightly more favoured for these 2 states and ENSO slightly more favoured in Qld and NSW but places like SW WA and Western Tasmania tend to heavily rely on the SAM more and this map truley indicates that much of June the SAM has been Positive (apart from lately) a lack of westerlies and decent fronts really shows up on the rainfall anomalies with both areas experiencing a much drier than normal June.

http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/rain/ind ... h&area=nat" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[stratospear]

I have read and witnessed over the Years that the SAM, IOD and ENSO all have roughly the same % effect over most of SA and Vic (away from the sw coast) with perhaps the IOD slightly more favoured for these 2 states and ENSO slightly more favoured in Qld and NSW but places like SW WA and Western Tasmania tend to heavily rely on the SAM more and this map truley indicates that much of June the SAM has been Positive (apart from lately) a lack of westerlies and decent fronts really shows up on the rainfall anomalies with both areas experiencing a much drier than normal June.

http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/rain/ind ... h&area=nat" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

The SAM has also been creating a deficit for the Northwest facing slopes of NE Vic as well.

At least the latest ensemble forecast indicates that while it will rebound to neutral in the coming week, the overall trend seems to be towards the negative. That's why I still think the current deficit of decent cold fronts could be forgotten in a few months....
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... _ensm.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[stratospear]

And the heatwave rolls on for Northern Victoria. 18.2c for Bendigo today is their hottest day in the last week of June in since the same temp was reached in 1976.

Record since reliable records kept (from 1957) was 19.1c on (ironically) June 28, 1959.

GFS is holding firm on a significant cold outbreak for this time next week.

[stratospear]

Been a remarkable lack of fronts here for winter - I'm really struggling to think of more than one classic front, one low that stayed with us for nearly a week, and one "summer" like trough at the start of the month. Of course, my maths could be wrong

Yeah, we did manage a decent front and lingering Low in Mid-May which put about 30-40cm of snow on the alps. That snow promptly disappeared in our early June rainstorm...

A reasonable front went through at the end of March.

[Macedonian]

another frost this morning, that is 8 out of the last 9 days with frost and only one of those days where the frost melted completely. weird weather for mt macedon, we are usually to cloudy and drizzly and awful for repeat frosts. another corker of a day today, t shirt weather two days in a row in june, unheard of

Late June-early July 1992 was similar to this. Then it was several months straight of mostly cold and wet weather along with 3m+ snow in the alps...

hope it is a repeat, stratospear.

[droughtbreaker]

The last few days have been around 12.5C here give or take half a degree. Definitely a very mild period for late June.

LWT coming in mid next week which should provide a reasonably wet period despite the models looking relatively dry. This time it should definitely favour the SW and north slopes of the ranges. Still waiting for signs of an amplification within the LWT. EC looking the best atm, moving the high ridge further north and showing a kink in the westerlies later in the period which could end up a decent cold outbreak somewhere down the line.

[Geoff]

It felt incredibly warm to me today in the sunshine, reached about 14c here this afternoon. Still very damp in shady spots but definitely drying out on the surface where the sun is reaching. Looks like one more week and then perhaps a complete change of pattern, but we've been here before so not convinced at all yet.

[droughtbreaker]

Yeah, starting to get very frustrating. We have a -ve IOD and cool neutral out in the Pacific and here we are rivaling the notorious 1982 El Nino for dry and sunny winter spells.

For the record there were only 25 rain days for the entire winter in Melbourne back in 1982.

Overcast here this morning.

[Geoff]

Everything is hidden in the mist, fog and general murk so far today, but I think there is some convectivity taking place above it all looking at the sat pic and the radar, so could be some showers around this afternoon.

[Geoff]

Further to my last, I just managed to sneak a quick photo during a brief gap in the mist at sunset, which shows a decent sized decaying cumulus over Lillydale way.

Olinda Sunset..jpg (5.34 KiB) Viewed 6900 times

Getting cool and foggy again now, 6.8c, but had a very productive day in the garden.

[mad*moo73]

Decent fog out there tonight, was driving along Eastlink down the Frankston end & could barely see the road in front of me in some parts.

[Nick Sykes]

Just stuck my head outside the dock at work, thick fog in Carnegie. Will be an interesting drive home

Was very murky today, would like a good blow to clear the air.

Nick

[Tassiedave]

The driest place on the Eastern seaboard of Australia in June might surprise you. Check out the "Tas Forum" for details.

[Rivergirl]

Really eerie day with all the fog around, not just here but the drive over to Mt Martha produced nearly as much fog as the hills in some parts. I bet the moon would have looked great when it came up at 11pm. Auroras everywhere in Tassie, some wonderful pics on the Tassie aurora page on facebook. I'm guessing it could have been spotted from Flinders. Nice pic Geoff

[Geoff]

Just got in, had a quick look at thr radar and can't believe my eyes! No mention of rain in the BOM forecast (updated at 4.20pm) and there's rain breaking out all over!
(Edit; BOM forecast updated again at 5.58pm - "Light showers this evening" - Unbelievable! Don't they look at their own radar???

[Dane]

Yeah had 0.6mm's here the first rain since the 18th.

[adon]

Got a shower up here too. Was less than 1mm but a surprise

[Geoff]

1mm-ish here, and a mild 10c at 8pm. Still not much rain in the outlook, most of it going south of us for a while.