Victoria: Low pressure system February 14th-16th 2010.

[adon]

Hey dean wake up mate! Storm coming your way!

[Alexia]

Feb 5th 18mm
9th 7.5mm
13th 30mm
14th 10mm
Total so far 65.5mm

[Jake Smethurst]

Still expecting thunderstorms to develop over the western and possibly central districts this afternoon/evening associated with the upper trough, you can already see activity with this over eastern South Australia. Also good to see some light rain areas over eastern Victoria currently, a lot of it not showing on radar. That should become heavier as the day progresses and extend further west. An interesting day, and will post the thunderstorm chart up when it's updated.

[Petros]

Just fired up the satloop, and seeing the cloudmass over SE Vic/NSW pushinig out towards the coast I thought we'd be in a light SW'ly outside. Not so! - its a light easterly with a very fine mist drifting in with it - SMELLS LIKE RAIN! Now for a closer look at the models... :hangloose:

[droughtbreaker]

Foggy here, looks like we had a bit more drizzle. Temp has been stuck between 14C and 15C for about 14hrs now and it was 15C for most of yesterday.

Have absolutely no idea what is going to happen today. Really, even with the upper feature, we need sun and heating to get storms. GFS delaying the main instability until 5pm for central areas probably because it will take until mid afternoon for cloud to clear properly and then you need to allow a couple of hours for storm development. Really not sure how far west the rain will get. Looking more and more like a wrap around in a mostly E/SE wind which doesn't help us here. Will only brush Geelong and Otways unless there is more of a S component to the SE.

[Petros]

Hey dean wake up mate! Storm coming your way!

Yeah WAKE UP JEFF!! Can feel an entertaining flurry of posts comming from that way soon as Adon has noted.

Calm and misty drizzle lulled here and temp shot up 2C I reckon in response. "Early" rain looming in from the SSE over Seaspray surprising me since we dont even have a low yet, must simply be at the base of the inland low system reaching down over Cann River?

Anyhow, gives me some time to unload/unpack our rally car from yesterdays hillclimb at Boisdale.

[mick]

Clearing up a bit here, was low clouod, misty light drizzle earlier and lots of moisture over the bay, so humid be something somewhere this arvo for sure.

[Anthony Violi]

Andrew, on the visual sat pic the cloud is only very shallow through the South and its clear over the divide...should ensure some decent heating that will hopefully mix out and clear this stuff away earlier. And also produce some decent storms.

[droughtbreaker]

Yeah, it should but probably a bit later on.

Humidity has been between 90% and 100% here since at least overnight Friday. Currently 15.5C and 94% RH. With these sort of readings it is very hard to clear away cloud, particularly where it banks up on the southern side of the ranges. North of the divide is always sunny in these scenarios but it is extra thick just a few kms away over the top of the range. The temperature will need to get into the low twenties to see cloud fully burn off IMHO.

[Rhino]

Have really been surprised by the lack of cloud here, been sunny all morning, expected at least high cloud but warming up nicely. I'm with Andrew, hit and miss affair around our area I'd imagine and could go ballistic or get very little. The whole system is evolving so can't really rule anything out but could be a day of surprises, one hopes anyway. Storm chart anyone.

Rhino.

[firestorm]

have that low cloud in again this morning is trying to burn off slowly so hopefully we can get rid of this cloud and watch some possible devlopment this arvo. LIs in my area are looking quiet good today which is rare so hopefully somthing for me today

[Sean Mac]

Sun has broken through here and warming up nicely.
Looking forward to seeing what happens over the next 4 hours.

[Rhino]

Just had a look at GFS Stormcast and looks nice for alot of areas, especially central areas of the state, and keeps the instability around well into the evening. LI's of -3/-4 although CAPE could be better but as we know their not the only ingredients to a good storm and will be enough for some decent storms. Interesting...

Rhino.

[Bobman]

Got a brief moderate downpour just after 9am here. Was nice to wake up to.

[I_Love_Storms]

Sun breaking through here as well.

[I_Love_Storms]

Severe Weather Warning
for damaging winds and flash flooding
for people in the Western, Alpine Areas, West and South Gippsland and East Gippsland forecast districts.

Issued at 11:26 am EDT on Sunday 14 February 2010.
Weather Situation

A low pressure trough over northeastern Victoria will deepen today as an upper level trough crosses the State. A low pressure system will intensify off the far east coast of Victoria on Monday.

Damaging winds averaging 60 to 70 km/h with gusts over 90 km/h are expected to develop during Monday over the Alpine and East Gippsland districts.

Heavy rain and isolated thunderstorms developing from early hours Monday about the Otway Ranges, Alpine Areas, West and South Gippsland and the East Gippsland forecast districts may lead to flash flooding.

[firestorm]

Severe Weather Warning


Heavy rain and isolated thunderstorms developing from early hours Monday about the Otway Ranges, Alpine Areas, West and South Gippsland and the East Gippsland forecast districts may lead to flash flooding.

I like this part cause that as the otway rangers is my area

[Rhino]

Amazing radar loop at the moment with storms over SA moving NE, rain over NSW moving SE and showers in Bass Strait moving W-NW. If you did'nt know any better you would say there is a low sitting right over the whole state of Vic.

Rhino.

[droughtbreaker]

Cloud is burning off now, still a heap of SCu but plenty of blue sky as well with sunny breaks. Still misty up the top of the mountain. Northern side of the ranges is a lot sunnier of course. I assume with the upper trough approaching and high moisture levels and now about to get a sunny afternoon so it will be warming up, that the prospect for storms this afternoon and evening is still the same?

Storm chart anyone?

[Blackee]

Warning to Sheep Graziers
for the West and South Gippsland and East Gippsland forecast districts.
Issued at 10:40 am EDT on Sunday 14 February 2010.

Sheep Graziers in the West and South Gippsland and East Gippsland forecast districts are warned that rain, temperatures down to 12 degrees and winds averaging up to 60 km/h are expected during Monday. There is a risk of losses of lambs and sheep exposed to these conditions.