Victoria: Low pressure system February 14th-16th 2010.

[Twister]

Was at Wentworth for dinner tonight and while the river is a white milk color, it dosnt seem to have risen that much maybe a foot at the MOST if that.
The flow still dosnt seem much faster than a few weeks ago, but there is more water flowing through.
Expecting a bigger push in coming weeks though a Flood down here in March would be great

Yes 50mm all through that area to my N NW NE is huge fall, grass will grow farmers tanks shall be full, further wetting off soil and lots of extra water fallen over the lakes to the North keeping them wet so all good news.
Just would love even 20mm here to just wet things up, still places up that way are so dry so its great to see last few weeks they are getting so much rain just wonderful

[Bobman]

Hopefully this is another pearler for the Thomson. It seems to have had quite a bit of luck this year compared to the same time last year.

Would love to see it above 50% again this decade. Looking forward to tomorrow night into Monday.

[Proteous]

I would love to see just half of the progged rainfall for this area, however I believe like most of the expected falls of the past this will be little different and so if we get maybe 10 mm I will be quite happy. There have been too many hyped up prognostications which have almost always ended with little of what was anticipated. However I remain ever optimistic.

[Blackee]

Nothing has changed too much this morning.
Instability at good levels. LI's low (down to -5 in areas).
I'd be happy with 10mm by Monday evening. Anything more will be seen as a bonus for Feb.

[Blackee]

CBD up to 8mm, whereas all other stations are 1mm or under.

[Dane]

Just beat me to that Sniper, must have been some localised light showers or drizzle. Certainly nothing here.

[I_Love_Storms]

I would love to see just half of the progged rainfall for this area, however I believe like most of the expected falls of the past this will be little different and so if we get maybe 10 mm I will be quite happy. There have been too many hyped up prognostications which have almost always ended with little of what was anticipated. However I remain ever optimistic.

Those Low Pressure Systems usually deliver down there Proteous, especially since it has originated from a Monsoon Trough. It is certainly plausible that you could get 100mm+, just a matter of wait and see. Good to see you would be happy with 10mm though then all the rest will be a bonus

[Blackee]

DJ, on the SatPic loop, can you see a low developing (circulating) in the last frame well to the west of Melbourne, around Cape Otway.

[I_Love_Storms]

DJ, on the SatPic loop, can you see a low developing (circulating) in the last frame well to the west of Melbourne, around Cape Otway.

Interesting you say that Sniper, I'm not sure myself, however if you look at the radar there is precipitation showing up in sea south of the bay. Good signs to have that moisture there, means something has or may happen in terms of lows forming. Storms in E SA at the moment as well

[I_Love_Storms]

Weather Situation

A low pressure trough over northeastern Victoria will deepen today as an upper level trough crosses the State.A low pressure system will develop off the east coast of Victoria on Monday before moving away to the east on Tuesday as a weak ridge of high pressure moves south of the State. A stronger high pressure system will move from south of the Bight towards Tasmania on Wednesday.

Forecast for the rest of Sunday

Isolated showers increasing to scattered showers over most districts during the day and tending to rain areas in the far east this morning and over Gippsland overnight. Isolated thunderstorms, mainly in central and eastern areas. Mild in the south but warm over the north with moderate east to southeasterly winds, freshening along the coast.

Forecast for Monday

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms, clearing from the west later in the day but tending to rain areas in the east and south. Local heavy falls possible over Gippsland. Mild in the south, warm in the north with moderate southeast to southerly winds, fresh and gusty in the east.

[I_Love_Storms]

Hahaha that is hilarious. Conditions here are similar - light drizzle at the moment.

[Anthony Violi]

Yes Wes thats the area of cold air to the west...once it interacts with some humid air, moist easterlies and hopefully a bit of heating we should see some big storms fire this arvo. IMO today and tonight is our best chance because the Low looks like it will be too far away for Central. Still may get 10mm tomorrow but the heaviest may in fact be this afternoon.

All im hoping for this system is for Gippsland to be underwater, and the Thompson to get drenched, looks likely but wait until the low winds up for confirmation.

[SC.]

Got light drizzle here, slowly getting heavier.

[Anthony Violi]

Good to see the stuff in Bass Strait is coming in from the East...and big storms firing in SA coming in from the West...expect an explosion in the next 6 hours as she starts to take shape.

P.S.....Showers and yabbies developing DJ?

[johnno]

EC has upgraded?? It has 0mm through this way today or am I reading it wrong? And only 6mm tomorrow.


GFS has also downgraded while JMA still looks good and UK has upgraded by the look of things

[windyrob]

had 10mm overnight including one heavy downfall at 4am. nothing showed up on the radar except a tiny light green dot over melb. weird! ive now hit the melb average in every month since july with the exception of oct. also had over 100mm in Nov. hoping this system dumps big time on the catchments

[johnno]

Yeah saw that little blob Windyrob seemed to hang over the Inner city suburbs for a while I got the edge of it had 4mm since Thursday here which takes me to 38mm since Thursday and 52mm for the month which is slightly above average this way

[Alexia]

My daughter in Beechworth had 52mm last night. We had another 1.5mm overnight . The mountains around are completly covered in fog cloud right down to foot of hill.65.5mm for month so far[ feb our dryest month av 34mm]

[johnno]

BTW RE the fire season, we've really been lucky this year on the timing of rain - no long dry spells with regular falls for most areas every 2 weeks or so. It hasn't been a wet "summer" for Vic - Nov was above by near 20mm but Dec/Jan have both been below by about 10mm and Feb could be above or below depending on the rest of the month. I suspect that the season has been pretty close to the historical average, but seems really mild because 2002/2006/2008 and 2009 are 4 of the worst fire seasons on record if you sum the fire weather index. The garden up here looks a treat - lush and green - and hasn't really dried out at any time, but the spring fed creek is still just a trickle.

Not sure if your talking about your area there DJ or Melbourne?? Cos in Melbourne November was 40mm above average 100mm fell compare to the average of 59mm, December was close to average 55mm Melbourne compare to 58mm the average, January 22mm compare to 49mm average and so far February Melbourne has had 58mm compare to the normal average of 48mm so overall the past 4 months has been slightly above average interms of rainfall for Melbourne by 20mm

[johnno]

My daughter in Beechworth had 52mm last night

Thats great Alexia! how much have you had the past 3 days Alexia?