Warm first half of March Victoria

[I_Love_Storms]

Extreme humidity again today - DPs of 18 to 20. Think we have the chance of storms this afternoon

[stratospear]

There is a possibility Melb CBD won't get above 30c today. This time yesterday it was already 31.5c, but now it's only 26.5c with a light SSEly. Here's hoping today puts a dent in all the hype...

It looks like QLD will probably escape the wrath of TC Sandra. Cool change by Thursday.

[tre75]

Humid yesterday/last night/this morn and .. repeat, did vic suddenly become qld and not let us know? heh

Mon & tues - two days which I'm working on, nasty, as if we haven't had enough, here take that!

I look forward to serving our new winter overlords in the ice mines run by Mr Jack Frost.

[Jake Smethurst]

You are right ILS in that there is a risk of isolated thunder about the Melbourne region this afternoon and also in the southwest, near seabreezes convergence and a weak trough system. Risk is low but it is there, so if the odd thundery shower pops up this afternoon don't be too surprised. Having trouble changing the storm chart below at the moment

Otherwise it looks like Melbourne will again go over the 30 degree mark, a little slower today thanks to a bit more cloud cover this morning.

[tre75]

Melbourne 08/01:04pm 29.9 31.9 19.1 52 7.0 - 7 - 4 - 1017.3 0.0
21.1 08:00am
31.1 12:51pm

It already did, not sure about storms this arvo the humidity is there but kinda looks a bit flat. Gotta go .. cya.

[I_Love_Storms]

There is pretty decent convection to the NW and W.

[Tassiedave]

In Launceston we have reached 30 degrees for the fourth day in a row. By next Thursday this run could extend out to 9. Certainly unprecedented for March. In years gone by we could go whole summers without reaching 30 so this weather is extraordinary. Yesterday was our highest ever March temperature (33 degrees) in contrast to Hobart 200 km away which could only reach 21.

[tre75]

Just been out driving - out to the north over the ranges some reasonable towers going up, got the sse down here but over the ranges you would have a northerly combining with that, might be a possibility if they hold against the seabreeze.

[droughtbreaker]

The only day where there is any chance at all of Melbourne not making 30C is Sunday. EC has low level southerlies and also extending inland for most of the day. OCF however doesn't want a bar of it so it will probably still be 32C/33C.

33C here today, cloudy with weak convection much like yesterday. BOM saying the chance of showers or storms here over the next couple of days but I'll believe it when I see it.

Humid continental weather here like inland eastern USA in summer, crazy stuff and massively anomalous conditions for the highly temperate parts of VIC (i.e. the south) which has an oceanic climate. There definitely were seabreezes today in Melbourne but all it did was push up the humidity to ridiculous levels and kept the temp down a few degrees on yesterday.

The airmass is very hot now so on Tuesday and Wednesday when the winds go back to the N/NW expect some very hot temps. BOM pretty much has it right.

I'm guessing the record breaking hot spring/summer period has warmed the oceans and the bay to the extent that seabreezes have become pretty much ineffectual at reducing temps thus leading to Melbourne's almost certain record run of 30C+. Also, we are in a position where these sort of blocking patterns are getting more and more common and intense, especially in late summer/Autumn. March 2008 was only 5 years ago.

[stratospear]

The warm water in the Bight, Bass Strait, and the Bay might make for some excitement in a few weeks time once we start getting polar modified airmasses heading our way.

Today felt like a hot summer's day in Sydney. Yuk!

Incidentally, like a mirror image across the equator, China and Japan are copping quite a heatwave at present.

[nafets]

In regards to heatwaves in Japan hope it doesnt mean the cherry blossoms with spring early, off to Japan in a few weeks and hoping to see the cherry blossoms ! So humid today, and hot for the next few days as has been mentioned

[Geoff]

Northerly wind kicked in here in the wee small hours and is blowing stronger than it has for ages, perhaps the trough to our west is getting closer/stronger?
Be interesting to see if it has any affect this afternoon with a bit more turbulence.

[Nick Sykes]

Starting to get hot out west with Geelong reaching 38C so far today, the city has gotten to about 33 so far. Always amazes me how hot it gets west of the bay with a decent northerly blowing.

[droughtbreaker]

Yeah, it got to 42C at Avalon on the 16th of March during the 2008 heatwave.

Only around 30C here atm.

[WeatherViewer]

Just topped 38c here in Wyndham Vale & Werribee.

[droughtbreaker]

31C maximum here today, currently around 28C/29C.

Melbourne should get into the high 30s on Tuesday and Wednesday. The way things are going there very well could be a 40C.

It may be cooler tomorrow with southerlies but not all models agree. A bit more unstable in the uppers tomorrow so some weak convection should occur with the slight chance of a shower or storm confined to the ranges.

[droughtbreaker]

Believe it or not, still an outside chance that Melbourne could fall short of 30C tomorrow if southerlies establish earlier than forecast and also if there is cloud about.

I stress the 'outside' part of that though.

Just out of interest I decided to compare the 1989 March heatwave with the current one. The 1989 heatwave started right at the end of Feb and continued through to the 9th of March inland.

I compared the 12 day period for Bendigo in 1989 to the corresponding 12 day period we are currently experiencing, assuming that the forecast temps are what we get.
The 1989 event saw an average max of 34.03C for Bendigo airport compared to an expected 33.22C for this sequence. Bendigo saw 11 consecutive days above 30C with one day right at the start reaching 29.6C (therefre practically 30C) This event should see Bendigo end up with 12 consecutive 30C days.

I used Bendigo as the example but I'm assuming that most inland localities saw a similar pattern.

My conclusion to all this is that this is an exceptional extended run of heat for the south and far west of the state but it's still significantly behind March 1989 for the inland and north of the state.

[tre75]

Very warm & humid today was thinking it might storm was looking rather ominous for awhile there, was not expecting 38C today, usually by the last dregs of summer most people appreciate the change too cooler weather if only to have a break from the heat, this summer is definitely at that stage for me, sure I like storms but they have been few & far between down this way.

[snowshow]

apparently it has rained in Moe/Newborough area about 1hour ago, nothing here but hot dry heat YUK!

[johnno]

The temperature of the bay right now is higher than the normal March average max

Spot values above 25C now in the northern bay - highest I could see yesterday was 25.1C. Will get hotter the next few days with hot days and warm nights, so could get close to 26C. The current values are record warm in the high resolution CSIRO satellite data - about 10 years of data. A cold outbreak with 850T of -3C would make for some "interesting" convection..

Waters averaged around the whole of Australia for Dec/Jan was equal hottest on record so it isn't just the bay that is running record warm ATM.

Humid and a bit cooler this AM - had 19/16 in Upwey at 7am. Intereting to see a few showers popping up to our north and west - but the main action is back west of Adelaide.

If anything the temp over Northern part of the bay David has fallen its now 23.3c not sure why though doesn't make sense given the current heatwave, given its fallen can't see it get to 26c now

http://www.baywind.com.au/ppb/graph.php ... H=year&S=2" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

http://www.baywind.com.au/ppb/graph.php ... H=year&S=2" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;