Will post more details with the 00z updates, but regarding thunderstorm activity, most of the state should be in with a
chance tomorrow. I think most activity or the best activity will be in the western districts near the upper trough. Variables are very good for development once again; Lifted Index is expected to be down to -5 at times across western Victoria, and around -1/-2 for central Victoria; surface moisture is relatively good, and we should have a deepening trough over the northeast region and a large amount of cold-air developing across the western districts during the day associated the upper trough. Severe thunderstorms are possible anywhere across the state tomorrow, in my opinion for flash flooding mostly, but we should watch the cold-air interaction with the warmer, more humid air as I think large hail will be a big threat in that particular area (western Victoria). Anyway, I will have my final thoughts with the 00z update.
Here is tomorrow's thunderstorm chart from the BoM. Personally I think there should be some adjustments to that and I think they will do that tomorrow.
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Victoria Regional Office
DAY 2 THUNDERSTORM FORECAST
Issued at 12:28 pm Saturday, 13 February 2010,
Valid from midnight tonight until midnight on Sunday, 14 February 2010.
Thunderstorms are possible over most of Victoria on Sunday. Most likely areas are over western and central ranges. where severe storms are possible. Flash flooding is the most likely phenomen in the severe area.