Extended warm spell and becoming humid - Feb 6 to 24

[Australis(Shell3155)]

Tizza.. all Eye lids were closed at that time of night..

[Monbulkian]

Did anyone by chance see extremely bright bluish flashes of light to Melbourne's NE about 15 mins ago @10:05ish?????? There was about 4 of them and they were not lightning, as it was WAY too bright for lightning not to hear thunder, radar and lightning tracker are both quiet

yes i did see it. was watching tv. still had curtains open and caught it out the corner of my eye. was enough for me to pause tv and listen for thunder. checked radar, saw nothing and just assumed it was distant lightning and i missed rumble. would also love to know what it was

[HarleyB]

Strange things going on in the sky last night I think. Didn't see the blue flashes here but I saw a shooting star pass directly overhead here. It was travelling in a South-Westerly direction. That was around 9:25-9:30pm.

[tizza]

Hi peoples thanks!!
Possible minuscule Russia type event that broke up on entry. It was SO bright, I was preparing an astro time lapse but I was still setting up I swung my camera around and rolled for a while but there was nothing more and I didn't get anything, BUMMER!!!!!!! I didn't see the actual meteorites at all just extremely bright flashes so you saw another lot Harley B as I was inside then, sounds like Monbulkian and I saw the same thing, and helps convey to you just how bright it was, Dandenong North to Monbulk, The 1st flash was by far the brightest the others didn't come close which lead me to think it was breaking up. Monbulkian did you see more than one flash? They were in very quick succession.

@SHELL LOLOL!!!!! and HELLO

Long time no speak, I hope you're all well, it's going to be a hot & numid EH, practicing my QLD speak, lol. 27c here DP fluctuating around 11 but RH dropping rapidly
Thanks Paul

[Rivergirl]

Hi tizza

I was watching tv and at about 12.30 to 1.00 am I caught two flashes about 40 seconds apart out of the corner of my eye at the front of the house which faces east. I checked the radar to see if it was lightning but didn't see anything after that. I thought it was really weird.

[tizza]

Hi tizza

I was watching tv and at about 12.30 to 1.00 am I caught two flashes about 40 seconds apart out of the corner of my eye at the front of the house which faces east. I checked the radar to see if it was lightning but didn't see anything after that. I thought it was really weird.

HI RIVERGIRL!!!!! I came in JUST before then and my camera was facing east, bummer, I hope you're well!! Leonids meteor shower was in the ENE sky around that time and Alpha Centaurids was in the SE at the same time so there is 2 active showers at moment. Star Walk on my iPhone has become one of my fav apps. It's fantastic. Speaking of which I reviewed my vision, all 7 seconds because my battery went flat, LOL and I have one satellite

[stratospear]

GFS has been consistent in the past two runs. A significant area of 25mm+ over the ranges is being predicted. EC is still flaky.

Getting a bit sick and tired of the heat atm. While not extreme heat, its longevity reminds me of March 2008...

[I_Love_Storms]

Fairly interesting weather. Looks fairly dry but maybe some dry storms overnight?

[johnno]

A major fire has broken out to the West of Yan Yean, I can see the smoke from here to the North and its represented on the radar with a blob forming and slowly expanding towards the South.. anyone have more info?

[HarleyB]

Grassfire on Donnybrook Road, there is a CFA advice message out for the local area, here: http://www.cfa.vic.gov.au/warnings-rest ... 62047.html

[johnno]

Thanks Harley

[I_Love_Storms]

A major fire has broken out to the West of Yan Yean, I can see the smoke from here to the North and its represented on the radar with a blob forming and slowly expanding towards the South.. anyone have more info?

Can see it now! Looks ominous...

[nafets]

Yeah I can see as well funnelling in from the NNE , looks like low cloud

[Monbulkian]

Hi peoples thanks!!
Monbulkian did you see more than one flash? They were in very quick succession.

i saw two very quick flashes. my view is obscured by mountains out the front and i could not tell you what the direction was (i am hopleless with directions). if karl is lurking he may be able to tell you what direction my lounge window faces.

[Skywalker]

A major fire has broken out to the West of Yan Yean, I can see the smoke from here to the North and its represented on the radar with a blob forming and slowly expanding towards the South.. anyone have more info?

A report from the herald sun regarding the fire:

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/leader/nort ... 6580379914" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[mick]

Terrible day and the smoke that has travelled all the way to carrum from epping brings back dreadful memories, I hope they get it under control soon. Ash now falling in the CBD.

I must comment, the Govt said the big Russian water bomber was no good for Victoria, we didnt have grass fires, its no good in the mountains and urban areas. Well well well, how many grass fires have we had this summer that would have been dampened by a 1km long 100 metre wide aerial water bombing run? Answer, lots. so a very bad decision.

Edit smoke now down as far south as frankston.

[Dane]

Very smoky here. maxed out at 35.5c on my weather station. Just under 35c now.
When will we get some decent rain, just one day in the last 59 with more than 1mm of rain here.
Sick of watering the garden every night.

[droughtbreaker]

The smoke plume more or less tracked over the city and was clearly visible (almost like sea mist) but was not at ground level, no smell of smoke and the air was clear.

Only 32C here today. It was a classic northerly wind day with a spike of temps over the western half of Melbourne.

Extended GFS wants to smash heat records from the 26th. It has a week of average daily temps at 25C-30C for the south and 30C+ for the north (which basically means around 18C-38C (as an example) in Melbourne for that entire week. If that happens its time to evacuate planet earth. It will make March 2008 feel like Antarctica.

We can only hope that GFS is off in looney land and going stupid (as it often does more than one week out). EC has another extremely long heat wave after a few warm days this week but then flushes all the heat out by the end of the 10 days as cooler Autumnal air makes an appearance. TBH it seems more plausible to me. The predicted cyclone up north has me worried as it will cause a great deal of the interior to dry up until it makes a crossing and/or decays. Black Saturday was partly caused by a severe and large cyclone off the NW Aus coast sucking up the monsoon.

Anyway. for this week, GFS has 25-50mm over the ranges and decent falls for a lot of areas while EC is showing a few rain events as well. Fingers crossed.

[Madmel]

Lets hope. This fire season as been a very busy one for the SE states.

[droughtbreaker]

Yeah, it was always going to a bad one because of the grass growth thanks to a wet winter (particularly on and south of the ranges) all drying out. Almost everywhere has seen a fire nearby. There have been several within 20 odd kms of my place in the last week or two. Luckily they were active on relatively low fire danger days though so didn't cause problems.

I think that maybe EC is the better model where TCs are involved. Apparently GFS jumps the gun with TC development. The scenario EC has, with later development of the TC and then shifting it west is the one we all need to have our fingers crossed for. This will mean more moisture and more movement of cooler air from the westerly belt than if a big cat 5 developed early in the piece and went straight onto the NW coast and then got ridged out (GFS scenario) leaving dry and very hot air ahead of it.