Extended warm spell and becoming humid - Feb 6 to 24

[Jake Smethurst]

That's right Rhino! And the latest GFS 06z run generally remains unchanged. I think it would be pretty hard for GFS, ACCESS to back down now. There is going to be some fairly healthy falls around from tomorrow, but particularly from Thursday onwards, especially under thunderstorms. EC continues to be the real outlier, not really hinting at much, but generally struggles in these types of set-ups as mentioned by Andrew.

[93ben]

kind of off-topic but does anyone know where i can download the most recent weatherzone weather tracker? - I know they stopped supporting it, but the copy i use on my desktop still works, and I'd like to put it on the new computer as well..such a handy program and for me..

Hi James, I have the latest copy of this on my computer. I can send it to it you tomorrow. What's your email so I can send it to you? You can PM me this if you want.

Anyway in regards to weather finally this weekend is starting to look unstable! Can't wait!

[I_Love_Storms]

Puzzling how EC insists on very little, while ACCESS, GFS and UK are all forecasting widespread showers and storms. Current obs certainly support the majority model view.

Latest GFS doesn't look that good compared to previous runs...hope it's not a trend

[Nick Sykes]

Certainly looks good for Northern Victoria today with a nice field of altocumulus showing up on the sat pic. South of the ranges not as likely with SE winds likely to dominate, though on the nearby hills we could be in with a shot, certainly a chance day. As has been mentioned EC continues to say no too storms in Melbourne (it does have precipitation on the ranges and north of the state) while the other models say yes, given the visual clues I would side with the other models and say there is a good chance of storms over the coming few days.

Nick

[Gordon]

Fascinating divergence - for Ballarat (our area) BOM is sticking firmly to the EC scenario with just 'a shower or two' Friday, and 'possible shower' Saturday; that's it for the next 7 days! Meanwhile, GFS and ACCESS have stuck firmly to good falls over most days for us, starting tomorrow. And BOM's own Water & Land (admittedly it comes with the 'computer generated' rider) backs this outcome.

I have printed off this morning's BOM forecast - with the contradictory GFS/ACCESS prediction on our doorstep, either it will prove to be a stroke of genius on BOM's behalf, or...

(PS If you want a bit of a laugh, check out this morning's Elders forecast for us. They always pretty much quote BOM for a description (e.g. 'mostly sunny' or 'possible shower') but then turn to the models for chance of rain and amount. I think I can smell burning computer with this one! http://www.eldersweather.com.au/vic/central/gordon" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;)

[Pane]

G'day

Well hoping for rain here like everyone else.

When I left for work this morning I said it looked like a storm today to the missus and then bang they started. I've got a photo on my iPhone f the cell over jerilderie that's still dropping rain now. I'm bout 35 Kay's to the sth west of town ATM.

How do I post photos off my phone??

Cheers

[93ben]

How do I post photos off my phone??

Do you have bluetooth on your computer? If not, do you have a USB cable to connect your phone to the computer. Please tell me the phone you have and the Operating System that you have so I can help you better.

[Pane]

G'day

Thanks Ben, it's an iPhone 4 with the latest update, pc currently doesn't have Internet so my phone plan is it ATM.
I can connect the phone using the USB to get the photos to the pc but then can't upload them to the net.

Storm is getting bigger here. Sky is filling in nicely too. What started over jerilderie is trying to turn into something a lot bigger but it seams to be missing something now.


Cheers

[rikjpool]

If your computer has wifi you could hotspot your phone to upload the photo.

Or, I can add you on facebook (if you have one), you upload the picture, and I'll share it on here for you.

[johnno]

Nice morning out east with calm conditions and a T/DP of 13C & 13C. Feels moist and warm.

Some nice castelated altocumulus early indicating mid level instability and already some cells just popped up north of the border - closest cell is just 190km from Upwey

Puzzling how EC insists on very little, while ACCESS, GFS and UK are all forecasting widespread showers and storms. Current obs certainly support the majority model view.

NOGAPS & CMC are with the majority too, so looks like EC stands alone on this one

[93ben]

Thanks Ben, it's an iPhone 4 with the latest update, pc currently doesn't have Internet so my phone plan is it ATM. I can connect the phone using the USB to get the photos to the pc but then can't upload them to the net.

Hmm, Apple products are a bit tricky to get photos off. Try connecting your iPhone to your computer via USB and open up My Computer. It should pop up as a image device and from there you should be able to get your photos off the device and save them to your computer to upload onto the net.

[johnno]

Latest 3 day Access has the best of the falls to the West and NW of Melbourne Tonight through to Ballarat and parts of Western Victoria, UK on the other hand has it through North Central areas extending towards Northern suburbs of Melbourne. Be interesting what GFS spits out this afternoon. Already storms over NW Vic moving slowly SW while storms over the highlands are moving the opposite way ENE slowly.

[Gordon]

00z GFS is sticking with 50 mm for us, 10 mm in the next 24 hrs. I can't ever remember GFS being so consistent for our area; that bullseye of rain over Ballarat has been there for several runs now. Only the totals have changed, varying between 25 mm & 100 mm - I'd take 25 mm atm!

[eegs]

I,m in Robinvale at present and the convection built quickly into storms from 1.30 till 3.30. Lots of lightning and growling thunder but still made up of individual cells despite a full cloud cover. Really nice to see and smell a few storms.

[Rhino]

And good to see that GFS keeping the "blobs", 25-50mm, of heavier rainfall over the state. We all know in these types of setups that some will get somewhat pounded but some will be dissapointed so don't expect one model to pinpoint exact locations of heavy falls. As I mentioned in an earlier post as long as GFS in particular keeps forecasting the solid falls it's game on and looking good for a few days to come and would expect some really good falls especially around the west central areas and the ranges around there at this stage, although I should quantify that a really good fall would be 25-30mm.

Rhino.

[Gordon]

Good to see Mt Hotham has had 11 mm already - hopefully plenty more to come and put that bloody fire out.

[I_Love_Storms]

BOM still not giving much. Chance of storms around nearby hills is about as far as they are going at this stage!

[James]

Where is it preciting instability to be tommorow?

I am really hoping we get something here...its so dry - yet so muggy today with a few puffy clouds in the distance

Its really been a dissapointing summer for storms, last real storms here were back in nov or so....only one distant rumble from memory since.

[Geoff]

View from Eildon late afternoon, nice!!!....

ebcbreakwater.jpg (138.11 KiB) Viewed 6774 times

[Rhino]

Area bordered by birchip-horsham-castlemaine looks like it want's to develop, whether it does is to be seen but some big Cu developing especially between maryborough-castlemaine.

Rhino.