Extended warm spell and becoming humid - Feb 6 to 24

[droughtbreaker]

GFS still looking really good and if anything increasing the moisture levels. It looks like somewhere around 40-50mm on the central ranges according to GFS and 50mm+ on the eastern ranges with scattered 10mm+ falls elsewhere although Gippsland missing out. IMO these progged totals are only a rough guideline as to where the rain will fall and the actual amounts can probably be taken with a grain of salt at this stage.

I still reckon storms will flatten out to rain, especially on and north of the ranges which hopefully will put an end to the ridiculous dry spell for these areas.

[Scott Lawrance]

I'm hoping and praying for rain at the moment. It has not rained here for almost 2 months - not a drop. It's beyond dry.

[Gordon]

I am trying very hard not to get too excited, but the latest GFS run isn't helping.

[Scott Lawrance]

Wow! It's brilliant! Let's hope...

[James]

Dont know about you but i have definetly noticed the gradual increase of humidity smell/feeling the last few days - and today when i oepened the front door, you could really smell that damp smell in the air

[Gordon]

Yes James, full cloud cover here all morning and just 17 C right now. Smells and feels humid (edit: in fact about 70% humidity); quite a contrast to dry, WNW fire weather we've seen a bit of lately.

[I_Love_Storms]

I am trying very hard not to get too excited, but the latest GFS run isn't helping.

Hahaha looks the best I've seen since the start of 2012 I reckon. Please just please let it be. Getting excited now!

[johnno]

Watch it downgrade at 00z lol if it doesn't then I might actually start taking it half seriously

[Supercellimpact]

The instability for 5pm Saturday is amazing.. -6 li's and 1200 cape in places.

[Didjman]

Hi people, 1st post for ages. Convection going up NE of here. I'd say around between Euroa and Mangalore. 27/13 here:D
Peter

[I_Love_Storms]

The instability for 5pm Saturday is amazing.. -6 li's and 1200 cape in places.

and Friday now as well! Most of the period looks awesome!!!!

[Gordon]

BOM still aren't convinced of anything much for us in the latest forecast, if anything downgrading with storms gone except for Friday. In contrast, GFS is holding onto 75 mm plus in the 00z run.

[Jake Smethurst]

GFS continuing to look very good with it's latest run. Puts us down here with 25-50mm! Not really sure what the BoM are doing at the moment, as did hear them mention the other day they were actually preferring the GFS scenario, perhaps they're just fine tuning that data.

Anyway here's the latest state forecast from the AWF team, well and truly anticipating showers and thunderstorms from tomorrow. Remember you can find this forecast plus more, including the thunderstorm forecast, here, at http://www.theaustralianweatherforum.com/victoria.html, or just click our banner at the top of the page.

VICTORIAN STATE FORECAST

Issued at 4:47pm Tuesday 12th February 2013.

Synoptic Situation:

A high pressure system in the Great Australian Bight will extend to the Tasman Sea on Wednesday. The high will then move to the southwest of Tasmania on Thursday before slowly moving into the Tasman Sea on Friday and Saturday. A trough of low pressure will influence Victoria's weather during the forecast period.

Tuesday Night:

Fine and mostly clear throughout. Light to moderate easterly winds, fresh near the coast.

Wednesday:

A fine and mostly sunny day throughout apart from isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms on and north of the ranges. Warm to hot and becoming humid with light to moderate east to northeasterly winds, fresh near the coast.

Thursday:

Isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms, mainly over western districts and the eastern ranges. Warm to hot and humid with light to moderate east to northeasterly winds, fresh near the coast.

Friday:

Scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly during the afternoon. Warm to hot and humid with light to moderate northeasterly winds.

Saturday:

Scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly during the afternoon. Warm to hot and humid with light to moderate northeasterly winds.

Notes from forecaster:

There is some variability as to whether or not showers/storms will decay into rain areas later Friday and Saturday.

Next Update is due Wednesday 13th February 2013.

[I_Love_Storms]

BOM still aren't convinced of anything much for us in the latest forecast, if anything downgrading with storms gone except for Friday. In contrast, GFS is holding onto 75 mm plus in the 00z run.

I'll bet on GFS. I know they have mucked up a few times of late but they do best in these easterly flows from memory. I remember BOM had a shower or two forecast in Nov 2010 and Croydon got 62mm in an hour and there was flooding everywhere.

[stratospear]

The setup kind of reminds me of late Feb 2010. i.e ElNino breaking down after a dry and warm summer with several weeks of high humidity and stormy outbreaks...

[Geoff]

Can report a visual sighting on my way home of several towers going up on the eastern horizon, waaay beyond the Warburton Ranges, so the instability has begun!

[droughtbreaker]

I don't know exactly why it is, but EC goes to sleep whenever a period of thunderstorms and associated rainfall is on the cards down here in the south east of the continent. TIme and time again, 'computer says no' with EC whilst GFS goes to the other extreme with massive LI and CAPE and rainfall totals and more often than not GFS wins out. This also holds true for tropical and subtropical events. I'm pretty sure GFS was the first to pick up the maximum 800mm falls in parts of QLD during the week of the flooding but EC only had about 200m-300mm, correct me if I'm wrong but in the early stages EC was pretty conservative.

If I had a dollar for everytime EC progged 0mm and we got completely hammered by an extended easterly storm and rain outbreak I'd be doing alright.

Still, I don't want to mozz it, it could easily end up a fizzer for at least some parts of the state so I'm staying cautiously optimistic. It's much better than the kind of outlooks we were seeing in January anyway.

BTW, surely some seabreezes developing this week along the coast. Melbourne looks very, very hot in the forecasts for a coastal/bayside location in light easterlies. SUnday and Monday should be hot with NW winds developing but I'm less sure of the other days.

[James]

kind of off-topic but does anyone know where i can download the most recent weatherzone weather tracker? - I know they stopped supporting it, but the copy i use on my desktop still works, and I'd like to put it on the new computer as well..such a handy program and for me..well used!

certainly feeling progressively muggier and felt much hotter out than it really was because of it today.

[norwester]

Fingers crossed for some decent rain in the NW over the next few days. We have lost 3 big trees (in spite of watering) this summer and lots more looking very stressed. Cant remember it being this dry for so long even during the drought. The last "decent" total was in Sept when we had 13 or so ml officially for the month. Oct scored 6 ml and we have had 10ml in the three months since and only 1ml for Jan. Its a bit crispy up this way!!!

[Rhino]

Does look pretty good and BOM has got storms everyday on it's nth central district tonight from wed on so won't complain about that . Noticed that the SW district forecast has storms mainly in it's nth areas so might be a little bit more about the ranges but that's to be seen. Would really wish for a decent rainband or at least the storm activity to flatten to rain areas but can only hope we all get under a nice storm and give us a decent drop. GFS looking great and what I really like is when it has a few blobs of heavy rain (50-100mm+) over different areas of the state, I generally take that as good chance of heavy rain over the whole state as opposed to just 1 or 2 areas in particular, so don't worry at this stage if your not under a blob of 75-100mm, the main thing is it's still forecasting those quantities.

Rhino.