Extended warm spell and becoming humid - Feb 6 to 24

[I_Love_Storms]

Yeah latest GFS looks good. About time!!!

[droughtbreaker]

A couple of posts going off topic here, maybe we should stick to weather discussion. People are allowed to disagree once in a while as well, even strongly disagree believe it or not. It's best not to let egos get in the way either when it comes to forecasts people make, opinions people have etc.

Anyway, I generally agree that we are in for a humid and stormy period with a big rain event once the next LWT moves through which could be sometime away as we are still in a slow moving pattern. Warm temperatures ahead although cloud could play a role in keeping temps a little lower in some parts.

[Tassiedave]

Hi everyone, I'm reading here about all this rain on the way yet the BOM Melbourne forecast for next Wednesday to Friday is "Mostly Sunny" with temperatures hovering around the 30 mark.

[mad*moo73]

Karl & Robyn

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[Australis(Shell3155)]

from the little I saw of the sky tonight it was pretty pretty out there just not long ago..
Roofs in the way to the south west where it was..

thanks for that link.

[Geoff]

I don't like the look of the latest model runs at all. Looks dry and increasingly hot next week with winds turning more northerly and increasing later in the week, with most precipitation staying north of us. Really hoping the tropical infeed can make it down here or we could be looking at a really nasty climax to this long dry spell. I'm not normally one to worry overly about the weather, but I'm just getting an uneasy feeling about the way it's looking. I'll be anxious to see the new models in the morning!

[Australis(Shell3155)]

Glorious Morning it was this Morning, Crescent moon popping over the mountain followed by Magic Sunrise, perfect weather if only we had some rain.
Was greeted by a big fruit bat in my Nectarine tree in the early hours, what a surprise that was..

[johnno]

Yep I said few days ago looks dry to me mabye isolated showers and storms on the ranges best case scenario but 95% of us will remain dry, no sign of proper rain yet.

[Rhino]

Latest GFS does bring some decent falls back to us, eastern mallee/nth wimmera, at the end of it's run (16th/17th) but that's a damn long way off yet. Has moved the heavier falls back from SA to western NSW so something to watch, hell that's all we can do........ .

Rhino.

[Jake Smethurst]

I think something significant is in the making, but Victoria may miss out again unfortunately. Does look to be the odd shower and thunderstorm from about Tuesday, initially in the east, but then the risk spreading westwards. Finally the AWF forecasts etc ... have been updated from the team here: http://theaustralianweatherforum.com/victoria.html.

[Australis(Shell3155)]

Just to confirm the Thankless task.
Who has been running around with the hose Wetting my front and back yard while I was sleeping
Or is that rain or drizzle falling from the sky. ?

Edit: maybe 2.9mm in the gauge..

[Dane]

A few light showers/drizzle overnight with falls in the Metro area ranging from zero to almost 5mm's.
Ivanhoe got 4.8mm's, Ferny Creek 4.4mm's, The city did well again with 3.8mm's and I got 1.0mm's takes my monthly total to 23mm's and YTD 26mm's. Better than nothing

[Rivergirl]

Thanks Jake lol Shell Glad you got some rain. Like Dane said Ferny Creek got 4.4mm so was wrapped. Was only expecting the average 0.6mm so a bonus. We are still green up here except parts of the grass are dying off now. I saw on Mt Dandenong Touris Road where you go past the Thousand steps that the grass on the high side of the road has dried off but on the low side it's still green which is nice.

[Geoff]

Well my Oregon raingauge lost the will to live some time ago, it couldn't work out how to measure dust. So I went and got a cheap and cheerful Holman gauge from Bunnings for less than $30, and it recorded 0.3mm last night - whooopeeee!

[Nick Sykes]

Not so sure about rainfall over this period, but does look like an extended spell of warm weather, nothing really hot, but a long stretch of warm to hot days. EC has a strong high planted just to our south or just to our east for a week or more, with easterly and then NE winds.

[Skywalker]

Can report a grand total of 0mm overnight here in the great Caroline Springs western desert. No real surprises there.

[Jake Smethurst]

All AWF forecasts have been updated, just click the above banner!

No rainfall here that was recordable but did manage to see a few spits last night on the way home from work.

Latest GFS is still fairly keen on some convective thundery type weather affecting much of the state. Yet to check the latest EC.

[droughtbreaker]

0.2mm in the gauge. I went up to Camels Hump to see if I could get a view of the fire at Kerrie and the path and direction dial at the summit was wet so obviously there was a bit of drizzle up there. It was very gusty today up the mountain and at Woodend and a little bit windy here at times. The max temp was around 21C.

I'm really liking what I'm seeing with the models atm. Humidity is going to gradually build up as we get stuck in E/NE for an extended period keeping temps a lot lower than what we saw in January, although I guess this is to be expected somewhat in mid Feb. After that the moisture floods in from the monsoon and eventually we get a LWT through which EC (as of 00z run) and GFS are progging big falls from. GFS also showing scattered thunderstorm activity over a wide area that could easily end up decaying to general rain areas, especially over the ranges, as evening sets in. This is set to start from around Thursday/Friday and get particularly active on Saturday.

EC doesn't want a bar of the thundery period preceding the rain but this is quite normal from EC which for some reason doesn't come on board with convection based rainfall until very late and even then tends to keep it very understated. If we get the thundery weather on these days then there is a chance that the 33C in Melbourne could end up downgraded but that's all speculation at this stage. At any rate it will be a warm week tending hot towards the end of it. The moderate humidity should keep things very pleasant. I'm well and truly over the dry heat we have been getting.

I'm also very encouraged by the flush out of heat after the LWT moves through. The humidity streaming in from the monsoon starts the process and then the southerly change and the changing of the seasons as we head towards the earliest stages of Autumn finishes it.

[johnno]

CMC, NOGAPS, GFS & ACCESS all have instabilty/showers and thunderstorms later in the week and Saturday, EC is the outliner at the moment doesn't have much apart from the Eastern ranges and some parts of Western Victoria.

[Geoff]

I still can't see any real rain for me in this set up this week, with the winds in the eastern quarter it looks warm and mostly sunny here (that should make it rain!). I'll be expecting our next good rain as and when the next LWT finally comes through, possibly earl/mid next week. Hopefully some good falls over the fires in the alpine regions to help put them out this week though.